Combined Pre Nats race results

except osu wasnt there...

however i am starting to believe that stanford could definitly challenge the cowboys, but osu should still be the favorites

NAU got weighed down by McNeil's sidestitch, too.

Oregon and especially NAU stand to improve considerably if their top performers show up 90-100% at Nats.

stingray33 wrote:

Looks like Stanford is going to win Nats in a walk away.

Thanks for doing the work. Definitely interesting to see.

But Stanford will NOT win Nats in a walk away. Oregon and NAU both have a shot at upending them and, if not, will probably be close (McNeil yesterday without the stitch probably takes 100+ points off NAU's score). And OSU still has to be the favorite over Stanford.

Should be a good team race at any rate. Thanks again.

Just curious. Did you use the times as they were, or give anything to the guys in the 2nd race. It looked like the course was getting chewed up a little by the time the white race ran. I've never been on that course, but what kind of time would this cost? A few seconds? Something more considerable?

How do you figure

Thanks but wrote:

stingray33 wrote:

Looks like Stanford is going to win Nats in a walk away.

Thanks for doing the work. Definitely interesting to see.

But Stanford will NOT win Nats in a walk away. Oregon and NAU both have a shot at upending them and, if not, will probably be close (McNeil yesterday without the stitch probably takes 100+ points off NAU's score). And OSU still has to be the favorite over Stanford.

Should be a good team race at any rate. Thanks again.

Even with Mcneil that still puts them 75 behind stanford Basically Stanfords score x2. NAU should be ranked somehwere around the stanford band. Not a chance. Sorry.

Get off of OK State's nuts. They're no longer favorites.

Cedmar wrote:

Get off of OK State's nuts. They're no longer favorites.

Well, their top 3 or 4 did all just tempo a 29:30 10k. That puts them in contention. And that was WITHOUT German.

Cedmar wrote:

Get off of OK State's nuts. They're no longer favorites.

you forgot to add "...of people who lack brains or knowledge or both"

Greg wrote:

NAU got weighed down by McNeil's sidestitch, too.

indeed ~50 points at least

Does Stanford really have the blue chippers behind Derrick and Heath to pack it up at nationals? I don't think so and I think that OSU has a very solid five of blue chippers in GF, Kosgei, Girma(?), Lowe, and Vail. Derrick and Heath may both finish in the top ten (Derrick will be top three), but after that, I think that there are going to be too many guys to their next three.

Stanford had a 40 second spread at pre-nats behind a guy who is likely to be top 5 at nationals. 50 seconds back from 5th place (increased for 10k) is still top 40, and 5 guys in the top 40 gives you a damn good shot at taking home the title.

OSU had a 42 second gap for their top 5 over 10k. GM did not run and GF is not yet fit. I can see OSU's top 5 being within 20's of each at National with GF leading the way

Don't forget, OSU has to overcome the fact that Dave Smith is their coach...

Thanks for putting in the work. I was surprised that combined results were not officially calculated by meet directors.

I've mentioned several times in posts that I'm a Stanford fan, so I'd love to see them at the top of the podium next month, but as a former coach I'm well aware of the difference between a team in mid October, and a team in mid November.

I feel like too many people saw results from 2 weeks ago and were saying that Oregon wouldn't make the podium and OSU 'might' still be in contention with GF and Vail running as they should. Now Stanford has proven that they currently deserve the number one ranking, Oregon has proven that Dillenger was a bad day, OSU has proven that they have a lot of rooom for improvement, and several other teams (NAU and Colorado in particular) have proven that they can contend.

I'm saying that Nationals is going to be what it should be--a race between several teams who have a legit shot at walking away as the best team in the nation. I'd prefer to see a battle instead of a walk away win any day.

Alan Arkin wrote:

Don't forget, OSU has to overcome the fact that Dave Smith is their coach...

How many times have you written essentially this same post?

Do you have anything that might qualify as a thought?

business plan wrote:

Cedmar wrote:

Get off of OK State's nuts. They're no longer favorites.

Well, their top 3 or 4 did all just tempo a 29:30 10k. That puts them in contention. And that was WITHOUT German.

Top 3, not "top 3 or 4". And it wasn't "WITHOUT German", it was WITH German, and German finished 40 seconds back. Now I still think OK State is a top-5 team right now, maybe top-3, and see no reason why German won't be top-10 at nationals easily, but you've got to put Stanford at #1 right now. Derrick just demolished the guy many people deemed unbeatable, and as far as Stanford not having the "blue-chippers" OK State has... what??? Hell, Heath was closer to Chelanga than Chelanga was to Derrick, I'd wager he's got a good chance to beat OSU's #2 at NCAAs. Marpole-Bird, Riley and Gregg may not be sexy big-name blue-chippers like Vail/Girma/Lowe/Kosgei(Chirchir? forgot who graduated), but the results speak for themselves. 10th/11th at pre-nats for M-B and Riley puts them in top-20 range for Nats. Gregg, their 5th guy, was the fastest 5th man of the day by 12 seconds, and would have been the 1st man for UW, 2nd man for Iona/ASU, 3rd man for Bama/NAU/CU/BYU/UP/UNM/Auburn, and 4th for UO. It's possible that all 11 of those teams are going to be ranked in the top-15 or so nationally, and Oregon is the only team who can put three runners in front of their fifth man. Compare that level of dominance over 8 of the top-10 teams in the country to what OK State has done (poor showings by Girma/German, having not beaten any ranked teams yet), it's hard to give them anything better than an honorable mention right now.

Lowe, Kosgei, and Vail all appear to be where they need to be, but there are question marks remain as to the rest of the team.

but but but but but it's german fernandez he can't be beaten. OMG. Oh My German. i just wanna run a train on german nom nom nom nom. did i mention he's from california?............................................................................ :). german.

gf <3 wrote:

but but but but but it's german fernandez he can't be beaten. OMG. Oh My German. i just wanna run a train on german nom nom nom nom. did i mention he's from california?............................................................................ :). german.

You've got problems, dude.