Post Pre-Nats who is now individual favourite?

Ummm... ever heard of Jordan Hasay?

Yes, yes I have and all three of those guys would beat her hands down at Nationals.

coffee creamer wrote:

I'll make is simple.

Before the season started everybody probably though Nationals was going to come down to Chelanga Vs Fernandez.

Now that Derrick has just beaten Chelanga does this make Fernandez a clearer favorite, or is it now a 3 way battle?

Obviously there are other guys, but right now it has to be one of these guys who is the favorite.

I love how you spun Derrick's victory in Fernandez's favor.

Looks like Stanford proved that #1 just might belong. That's pretty damn dominating.

And I guess Oregon got it figured out now. Interesting results.

They're up! www.prtrack.net

mighty porn stache wrote:

Looks like Stanford proved that #1 just might belong. That's pretty damn dominating.

And I guess Oregon got it figured out now. Interesting results.

I think they still might get more out of little Centro...

Centro ran very well in their home meet...what was it, the Dellinger? While Puskedra looked bad and was 5th team man or so. Now Puskedra goes and wins prenats. Centro runs well again, and if the Mercados keep it going, they'll def be higher than the 7th they are currently ranked.

Of the individual favorites, only Derrick is undefeated now (unless you count Bumbalough, but he's not as much of a factor for the win in a 10K cross race, top 5 perhaps). Interesting.

music is happiness wrote:

Of the individual favorites, only Derrick is undefeated now...

In college XC there is only one day where it matters who is undefeated and it only matters if you are undefeated for that single day.

Hats off to Derrick. Awesome display at pre-Nats. But it doesn't change anything. Before saturday and now the odds are exactly, precisely and without-any-possibility-whatsoever-of-being-questioned as follows:

Chelanga: 30%

Derrick: 30%

Fernandez: 30%

Rest of Field: 10%

Now please do not waste your time debating what is so obvious. If you wish to discuss the details of the 10% you may.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple, but these guys immediately categorized themselves as such in my mind.

--- Could potentially win:

Chelenga

Derrick

Fernandez

Puskedra

--- Top ten candidates:

Baker

Bethke

Bumbalough

Chipangama

Estrada

Heath

Kipchumba

Kosgei

Kyle

McCarthy

McNeill

Mead

Mesecho

Sheridan

Vail

Centrowitz hasn't done enough in cross country to merit a spot in the conversation just yet.

Don't forget that Heineking kid from UVA. 23:16 on that Panorama course (if it's the same as the one I ran on a couple years ago) is insane. Tougher course than prenats.

no one's gonna consider how poor herman fernandez's run looked at chili pepper? looks like he might need to make osu's varsity before being picked as a candidate to win

future run wrote:

no one's gonna consider how poor herman fernandez's run looked at chili pepper? looks like he might need to make osu's varsity before being picked as a candidate to win

...have a brain?

Chelanga all the way!

There's no way that Derrick and Fernandez have caught up to Chalenga's ability in just a year. Do you think that Chelanga is unable to improve over the course of a year just like them?

Furthermore, Chelanga said in his post-race interview that he just took it easy cause he wasnt feeling well on that day.

I agree I don't think you can change who the favorite is off of one race. Chelenga was so far ahead last year that he still has to be considered the favorite. I'm also tired of people assuming Fernandez is better than Derrick... I think Derrick will wind up having the better career and is already showing that he is surpassing fernandez

business plan wrote:

Chelanga all the way!

There's no way that Derrick and Fernandez have caught up to Chalenga's ability in just a year. Do you think that Chelanga is unable to improve over the course of a year just like them?

Furthermore, Chelanga said in his post-race interview that he just took it easy cause he wasnt feeling well on that day.

Yeah, he was taking it easy alright as Derrick was blowing by him. lol

sammy is the fav wrote:

I agree I don't think you can change who the favorite is off of one race. Chelenga was so far ahead last year that he still has to be considered the favorite. I'm also tired of people assuming Fernandez is better than Derrick... I think Derrick will wind up having the better career and is already showing that he is surpassing fernandez

Within this thread there are two posts that could reasonably be interpreted as assuming that Derrick is better than Fernandez and one that could reasonably be interpreted as assuming that Fernandez is better than Derrick. And you're tired of what?

Derrick may have a better career than Fernandez when all is said and done. On the other hand, perhaps not. Do you have some inside information? Brilliant insight? Didn't think so. You're like everyone else - you don't really have the slightest clue how it will play out. Unlike everyone else you do seem to think you know something that you don't and you have a very clearly stated emotional bias toward one over the other.

We're not impressed.

do you wrote:

future run wrote:

no one's gonna consider how poor herman fernandez's run looked at chili pepper? looks like he might need to make osu's varsity before being picked as a candidate to win

...have a brain?

what? i'm pretty sure he brought up a legit point, in a weekend where puskedra and derrick looked very good, and imo chelenga looked just as good as last year, german shat a brick. i'm gunna need to see alot more out of german before he's a canidate to win.

he's what i think the chances should look like:

derrick - 30%

chelange - 25%

puskedra - 25%

german - 15%

anyone else - 5%

Emil Heineking from UVA is definitely a contender. While it's true that UVA's course is 180 meters short, in previous years it has still been quite a bit slower than Prenats, even despite the shortness. 23:16 on that course is mind-blowing. If he stays healthy, he is top 10 material.