Predictions: World half Thon

1. Kitwara - 58:30, KEN

2. Tadesse - 58:35, ERI

3. Regassa - 58:45, ETH

Then a couple of minutes

4. Wilson Kipsang, KEN

5. Bernard Kipyego, KEN

6. Fabiano Joseph, TAN

7. William Chebet, KEN

8. Dereje Tesfaye, ETH

9. Hailu Mekonnen, ETH

10. Stephen Mokoka, RSA

11. Ahmed Baday, MOR

12. Solomon Tsige, ETH

13. James Theuri, FRA

14. Ritzenhein, USA

15. Atsushi Sata, JPN

16. Rachid Kisri, MOR

17. Damian Chopa, TAN

18. Martin Toroitich, UGA

19. Carney, USA

20. Gotcher, USA

Why would anyone pick someone other than Tadesse to win? His WC performance was simply amazing and the guy is a beast at the half marathon. Kitwara is a trendy pick but come on, he won't beat Tadesse.

Picking from the gut here, Ritzenhein will win

Sorry man. But Ritzenhein will NOT win.

Tadesse will not finish that race... That leaves Kitwara to Twara the rest of the field.

running scared,

dreaming is allowed. so you can dream, but tadesse will finish his race and he will finish it the no. 1

1.tadesse

2. ritz

3. some ethio guy

I actually don't think anyone will break an hour and if they do it will be 59:5x. Remember, this is a championship race and those usually are not blazing fast.

The course is fast. I was out on it today.

Times are not blazingly fast? Tadesse ran sub 59 to win the championship race and there were like 3 other guys right near him. Track championship times are often slow, and sometimes marathon championship times are slow, but the fact that this is a championship will not stop the times from being fast.

Ritz's chances of medaling in this race are, it seems to me, being greatly exaggerated by the letsrun community as a whole. If he sneaks in for the bronze while some other guys rig that would be a spectacular run. A finish in the top-8 or so would still be very, very good. How many guys in this field have PRs under an hour? And how many more have run under 61 minutes this year?

My prediction for Ritz: 7th-place in 60:28.

been injured wrote:

Times are not blazingly fast? Tadesse ran sub 59 to win the championship race and there were like 3 other guys right near him. Track championship times are often slow, and sometimes marathon championship times are slow, but the fact that this is a championship will not stop the times from being fast.

Notice that I said usually, not always. There could be 10 guys under 60 with the winner going 57:xx but I don't think it will happen... but it might also.

If Ritz wins, it would be the greatest American long distance performance since Billy Mills. Top ten for Ritz, in this field, would be very good; top five, would be superb. I think after the day is over, he'll be the second fastest American at the distance, which means sub 60:29. The race will be fast. Tadesse does not like to hang around too long, and the race begins downhill. For Ritz's purposes, 13:45-50 for the first 5k would be about ideal.

humidxc wrote:

Picking from the gut here, Ritzenhein will win

WTF does everyone have against Ritz? Are people secretly optimistic and trying not to put a curse on him? He is going to do something F'in incredible. Who thought he would run 12:56. And that was a 5k (hardly his strongest event) then he comes back a month later and splits 59 FLAT pace for 10 miles in a workout!!!I think that is suggestive that he could in fact challenge 59 minutes with good competition. I think he could get that record even if he is a little off. His World's 10k shows he could mix it up with these guys. And I think he is on a whole new level than he was two months ago physically and especially mentally. After all his earthbreaking success he must have soo much confidence. I expect him to medal and break the record as long as the pacing is up to snuff. Unlike Hall, this guy is a natural born competitor. Look at his junior and college xc exploits. As a matter of fact, he beat Hall at the Olympics even before his breakthrough. If Salazar keeps him healthy he will set every american record he chooses to break from 5k to the marathon. Hes a freak of nature right now.

I'll go

1 Kitwara

2 Tedesse

3 Ritz

I'll throw it out there:

ritz for the bronze in 60.00

Ridiculous was the name.