Meb is going to beat Hall in New York

Half marathon does not equal marathon. Meb ran 2:09 at London. It would take a hell of a race for him to beat Hall.

Meaning Hall has :51 seconds in the tank for the second half. Hall will beat Meb by two minutes & forty one seconds!

While everyone's talkin bout Ritz and Hall, people tend to forget that Meb has a 10k PR of 27:13 and finished 2nd at the Olympics and the NY Marathon, if this guy gets in top shape (after years of injury troubles) he has the potential to beat not just Hall but everyone in NY.

fhfgh wrote:

While everyone's talkin bout Ritz and Hall, people tend to forget that Meb has a 10k PR of 27:13 and finished 2nd at the Olympics and the NY Marathon, if this guy gets in top shape (after years of injury troubles) he has the potential to beat not just Hall but everyone in NY.

We don't forget. He ran that 10,000 in 2001 and is not the same runner now. At the Olympics, he ran a not-very-impressive time in a race that saw some of the favorites run horrible races. He still gets props for getting a medal at the Olympics, but it means nothing in terms of how fast he can run the New York marathon. Ryan Hall is a better marathoner, and all things being equal should beat Meb with no problem. The 1:01 half for Meb bodes well for him, but he's a 2:09 marathoner who is on the downside of his career and really should not challenge Ryan Hall at all (though Hall does have a tendency to throw in a bad race here and there).

So, if Meb beats Hall, it will be due to DNF or injury or illness on Hall's part, not because Meb is suddenly fit enough to run with a 2:06 marathoner. Good luck to them both though.

The only way Meb could beat Hall @ NYC 2009 is IF Meb has the best race of his life and Hall falters doesn't regain his composer. Even a less than stellar performance from Hall would beat Meb's PR.

While I agree that all indications point to Hall being better than Meb at this point in time, you should not diminish Meb's accomplishments. In Athens, Meb delivered in tough conditions on a tough course; conditions and a course that the "favorites" could not handle. And yes, Meb's 10k record is from 2001, he has been running marathons since then.

Downside of his career?...we'll see.

Anything could happen of course, but I'd still take Hall over Meb, and Lel over anybody else in this race. Still, it's exciting to see Meb back running as well as he has in many years and being a legitimate podium threat.

Running Bear wrote:

While I agree that all indications point to Hall being better than Meb at this point in time, you should not diminish Meb's accomplishments. In Athens, Meb delivered in tough conditions on a tough course; conditions and a course that the "favorites" could not handle. And yes, Meb's 10k record is from 2001, he has been running marathons since then.

Downside of his career?...we'll see.

I agree with you Bear.

Flagpole, if we are going to play your game, then Ritz is just a 2:10 marathoner, right???

Meb: AR 10k and silver in the Olympics. No matter how one slices it, those are still a better combination of accomplishments than Ritz or Hall have done so far (Ritz and Hall each have AR's, but neither has been close to a medal).

Running Bear wrote:

While I agree that all indications point to Hall being better than Meb at this point in time, you should not diminish Meb's accomplishments. In Athens, Meb delivered in tough conditions on a tough course; conditions and a course that the "favorites" could not handle. And yes, Meb's 10k record is from 2001, he has been running marathons since then.

Downside of his career?...we'll see.

Well, he's 34 years old. He may have a good race or two in him, but his age alone puts him on the downside of his career. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he busts a 2:05. Just don't see it though. I'd guess for a 2:10 or 2:11 for him in New York, and I'd be less surprised to see him run slower than that than I would to see him run faster than that. Also, I'm not diminishing his silver medal at the Olympics. Good for him. It doesn't mean crap though when talking about what he can run this year at the New York marathon. A 1:01 half is pretty good though, so perhaps he's really in great shape and will run a nice marathon. I'll remain skeptical. I think his best days are behind him.

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

I agree with you Bear.

Flagpole, if we are going to play your game, then Ritz is just a 2:10 marathoner, right???

Meb: AR 10k and silver in the Olympics. No matter how one slices it, those are still a better combination of accomplishments than Ritz or Hall have done so far (Ritz and Hall each have AR's, but neither has been close to a medal).

1) Ritz is just 26 years old and still on the upswing of his career. He also has more talent than Meb does and has all along, because talent is static and never changes (I correctly said he would get the AR in the 5,000, and I have also long said he will get the 10,000 if he runs it...his for the taking).

2) I agree that the silver in the Olympics gives him a better accomplishment than either Hall or Ritz. I never said he wasn't more accomplished. I said he wasn't a better runner than either...certainly not now he isn't, and overall he isn't either. The AR in the 10,000 though doesn't really give him one up on Ritz or Hall. Both of them also own American records, and in times that are more impressive than Meb's 10,000 AR.

3) Too many of you Letsrunners don't get the difference between accomplishment and ability. Here's an illustration...in 1904, Thomas Hicks of the USA won the GOLD medal in the marathon at the Olympics, so because of that he's more accomplished than Meb even. His time? 3:28:53. So, Meb is a better runner than he was. Hell, even I am a better runner than he was. Same is true for Hall vs. Meb. Meb has a silver medal in the Olympics, so good for him, but Hall is better at the half marathon and the marathon than Meb and still has several years left where he can improve. Because the marathon continues to get more and more competitive, Hall may never win a medal of any kind at the Olympics. That doesn't mean though that Meb remains better than Hall...more accomplished at the Olympics yes...better, no. AND, getting back to the original crux of this thread, will Meb beat Hall in New York? I say no. The best runner doesn't always win (injury, illness, can keep the better runner from winning), but all things being equal, Ryan Hall is the better marathoner and should beat Meb, and believe it or not, but Meb's silver medal will have no bearing on the outcome of the race.

I AM Fleetfoot wrote:

Meaning Hall has :51 seconds in the tank for the second half. Hall will beat Meb by two minutes & forty one seconds!

You're gonna have to explain that one to me.

Flagpole wrote:

"...talent is static and never changes"

C'mon FP, you can think more clearly than this. Talent is what one is capable of given optimal fitness level, health, etc. Clearly this changes over time.

Please think more clearly. Thanks.

watruthinkin wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

"...talent is static and never changes"

C'mon FP, you can think more clearly than this. Talent is what one is capable of given optimal fitness level, health, etc. Clearly this changes over time.

Please think more clearly. Thanks.

You are incorrect.

Talent is static and does not change. ABILITY is what changes with fitness, health, etc. Talent is inherent. Ability is what you can do with that talent.

Flagpole wrote:. . . I'd guess for a 2:10 or 2:11 for him in New York . . .

The field is deeper this year than last, but third place in 2008 was 2:11:22. I think Meb would be pretty happy with a 2:10 on the NY course and it might well put him on the podium.

blip wrote:

The only way Meb could beat Hall @ NYC 2009 is IF Meb has the best race of his life and Hall falters doesn't regain his composer.

Who is Hall's composer? Is that in lieu of wearing an iPod? Does the composer write uplifting tunes to see Hall through tough spots? This seems like an unfair advantage.

Flagpole, why are yoe writing a fair an balanced opinion on what may or may not happen?

You used to give absolute replies.

You're supposed to say Meb has no chance of beating Hall.

You know you have all the answers. Just lay it out there.

Flagpole wrote:

Well, he's 34 years old. He may have a good race or two in him, but his age alone puts him on the downside of his career. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he busts a 2:05. Just don't see it though. I'd guess for a 2:10 or 2:11 for him in New York, and I'd be less surprised to see him run slower than that than I would to see him run faster than that. Also, I'm not diminishing his silver medal at the Olympics. Good for him. It doesn't mean crap though when talking about what he can run this year at the New York marathon. A 1:01 half is pretty good though, so perhaps he's really in great shape and will run a nice marathon. I'll remain skeptical. I think his best days are behind him.

Flagpole...Please re-read your previous post. You do diminish Meb's accomplishment @ Athens. And it does mean something with regard to how he places at NY, for a significant part of racing the marathon at that level is mental. Meb has proven that he has the mental part. If he is fit, I think he has a shot at doing very well.

Running Bear wrote:

Flagpole...Please re-read your previous post. You do diminish Meb's accomplishment @ Athens. And it does mean something with regard to how he places at NY, for a significant part of racing the marathon at that level is mental. Meb has proven that he has the mental part. If he is fit, I think he has a shot at doing very well.

I disagree that I've diminished his silver medal, and I also disagree that it has any bearing on the New York Marathon. He has a shot at "doing very well". Ok. That's a subjective thing. I wasn't responding about whether he will "do very well" or not. I was responding to the topic which was will Meb beat Hall, and for the reasons I gave, I don't think he will. I've been wrong before though. We'll just have to wait and see. Hall is the better marathoner. Hall SHOULD beat Meb. Doesn't mean he will. I'd love to see Meb run a PR though. I'll just be surprised. But hey, I like surprises.