Flagpole wrote:
My $0.02 wrote:In fairness, if you were in high school in the early 90s like me, sub-16:00 and sub-10:00 was pretty decent. We were SLOW back then.
This was also true in the mid 80s. Sub 10:00 would win anything and everything (unless you ran against Scott Fry) until you got to regionals at most. Low mileage was the teaching of the day..."rest up". Bad advice all around and no internet to see up-to-date times of other runners nationwide. Sub 16 in Cross Country? Man, back then hardly anyone did that...not in Ohio anyway.
I disagree. I went to HS in Michigan (same weather or worse than yours), and I graduated in '85 (same era). I broke 10:00 for 3200 as a sophomore and a 9:59 WOULD NOT win everything. I got down to 10:03 by May 5th that year and we had another two guys on my team that ran 9:47 and 9:43 (and I ran 9:50).
As a freshman I ran 10:20 (3200m) and I won every race I entered except one JV Invite. I won all the dual meets and all the Frosh Invites. As a soph I won exactly ZERO races on the track at 1600 or 3200. I hadn't really thought about that until right now.
I ran 10:20 indoors and then 10:14, 10:08, 10:06, 10:03 in the first few weeks in 10th grade. As the season went on I went 9:59, 9:56, and then 9:50.
I didn't qualify for State Meet (with the 9:56), the 9:50 was run at Conference Meet (I got 6th!) and that 9:50 did not qualify me for our Honor Roll Meet (top 12 times in Mid-Michigan) ... so that was the end of my season.
So, for me, 10:00-10:10 type times didn't win Invites (in fact you would get about 10th) and 9:50-10:00 type times didn't win the big meets either. Regionals was won in ~9:30. Conference was won in 9:36. State Meet was won in 9:19 (bad weather). There were about 9-10 guys who broke 10:00 in my conference JUST that year. 7 of them at Conference (and other meets) and 3 that were either in other events or injured by that Meet.
I was very satisfied to break 10:00 (that had been my big goal that season), but I definitely DID NOT feel like I was a big deal. I was second or third on my team -- depending on the day/race.
As a Junior, I did get a 15:49 on a legit XC course (and several 16:00-16:20s). It did not win that Invite however. I was usually 4th-6th at Invites. I went on to place 10th at State Meet. My teammate (1.5 yrs older) was a few seconds ahead of me.
After we graduated HS, I noticed that many dual meets had winning times of 4:50+ and 10:50+ and that XC meets were often won in 17:00-18:00 ... depth and the top-end had fallen off dramatically.
It seems like it is back "on track" now ... I see a lot of guys running under 4:30 and 9:40 and a lot more guys under 16:30 and even 16:00.
But yeah, to address the OP question: if you break 15:00-flat on track, road or XC you are something special. IF you break 4:25/9:30 then you are good ... this kind of runner should be able to break 15:40 on a legit course.
I don't think that sub-16 runners are "a dime a dozen", but that level is not something to be excited about ... it is what you should shoot for during Junior year. sub-10 si what you should shoot for sophomore year.