Sloppy math: Bolt will completely destroy the 200m WR.

You do realize that in the example period 1996-2008 there was only one 200m WR, the 19.32 held by Michael Johnson? That means that your logic doesn't work, because it's not like with every new 100 record, a new 200 record came along that dropped the average 100's in the 200. Not saying Bolt won't smash his 200 time, but I don't think your logic is right.

I know my logic and math is sloppy. Just trying to show that the average 100m time from the 200m WR should be faster than the current 100m WR. Usually.

So, 19.30 / 2 = 9.65

The 100m WR is now 9.58.. so really what I should have said is that the average 100 from the soon-to-be 200m WR will be <9.58

(the WR will be under 19.16)

If someone has statistical software like Perl or something, and is willing to waste their time, they could probably make a much better predictive model.

Bolt ran all out in the beijing 200, unlike the 100 where he slowed down purposely. He won't break his pr in the 200.

how about we just wait 3 days and find out?

What you said does make SOME sense, but I'd still say you are way off base. If any of you have ever been in shape for a fast 200 (and no, I'm not talking about the distance runner types who can run their 200 PR twice in a row haha), you know that by the end of it you are feeling quite a bit of oxygen debt and lactic buildup. The reason MJ could run 19.32 was not becuase he was a ridiculously fast 100 meter runner like Bolt is. In fact, he never even broke 10.00! So how then did he run 2x9.66 and still never break 10? It was his speed endurance, or his ability to HOLD a fast pace. This ability also allowed him to keep accelerating through to 150 meters and hit a much faster top speed than most people could because he was well trained in dealing with the waste products that running so fast produced. The 200 is a much longer event physiologically than people give it credit for. There are the 400 types who run it, and there are the 100 types who run it, and you have to take both of these into account when you make a prediction.

I'd say MJ's 400 is probably worth about a 9.75-9.79 (equivelent, not that he was capable of running that). That being said, when Bolt was in shape for 9.69, he ran a 19.30, and that was with MORE of a 200/400 base than he has now. So I would predict a 19.1-19.2 from him RIGHT now. With more training in his speed endurance, sub-19 would be within the next year.

I hear what you're saying. In general the 200 WR should be at a slighly faster pace than the 100 WR. Here is the progression of the world record in the 200 meters using FAT.

1968 - 19.83 (9.915 per 100)

1979 - 19.72 (9.86)

1996 - 19.66 (9.83)

1996 - 19.32 (9.66)

2008 - 19.30 (9.65)

Here is the progression of the 100 WR.

1968 - 9.95

1983 - 9.93

1988 - 9.92

1991 - 9.90

1991 - 9.86

1994 - 9.85

1996 - 9.84

1999 - 9.79

2005 - 9.77

2007 - 9.74

2008 - 9.72

2008 - 9.69

2009 - 9.58

This is the first time in the FAT era that the 100 WR is faster than the 200 WR divided by 2. To me, this suggests that you're right, the 200 record is due to come down.

One other thing to consider - in 2007 Bolt ran 10.03 and 19.75. Now the man is running 9.58!! What the hell is he going to pull out of his hat in the 200?

BOLT WAS IN 9.58 SHAPE IN BEIJING. OR FASTER THAN THAT. HE DIDN'T RUN THRU THE LINE. HE RAN ALL OUT IN THE 200. HE WILL NOT BREAK HIS PR IN THE 200.

maybe.... wrote:

HE WILL NOT BREAK HIS PR IN THE 200.

Well, since you said it in ALL CAPS, that means it must be true, right?

then bolt runs 19.19 loooooooooooooool