I say Lagat can do it with the pressure from this high quality field. Also, according to some, if the conditions were better last week he would have had a good shot at BK's AR in the 5k, so clearly he is in great shape. He is more of a miler, so the 3k should be his sweet spot, and he should be able to better BK at 3k more easily than at 5k (say that 5 times fast).
I say 7:28.9.
How about Teg and Solinsky? Don't know what kind of shape they are in. But Sihine, Kichoge, and Shaheen (coming back from injury) should all be hot on Lagat's heels (not to mention Masai and Feleke, and the US guys).
Will Lagat break the AR in the 3k at Pre?? I say yes (Incredible field: Sihine, Kipchoge, Shaheen, Masai, Teg, Solinsky
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Sir Lance-alot wrote:
I say Lagat can do it with the pressure from this high quality field. Also, according to some, if the conditions were better last week
Conditions were better last week. In fact they were perfect. Problem was, the 5000 went off about and hour to 90 minutes earlier. -
It looks like Lagat's all time 3000 best is 7:32:xx, seems unlikely that he's going to go 3 seconds faster at this point in his career.
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KIR wrote:
It looks like Lagat's all time 3000 best is 7:32:xx, seems unlikely that he's going to go 3 seconds faster at this point in his career.
It is true that that is a big improvement, but I don't know how many times he has run a 3k in top shape ( a few I am sure). And yes, he may not be at the ultimate peak of his career, but his 15/5k WC double was only 2 years ago. And he just ran 13:03 (3rd fastest 5k for him ever) in less than perfect conditions (Malmo, I didn't understand you. You said that 90 minutes after the race, the conditions were perfect, right? So less than perfect during the race, right? We don't know what conditions they will get this sunday).
If he is in sub 13:00 shape, and he is a 3:26 guy who ran 3:51 indoors this year, and he is battling 2 sub 7:30 guys (Kipchopge and Sihine, who are also all-time greats in the 5k/10k timewise), and the WR holder in the steeple who just ran 7:32 after coming back from injury (Shaheen)........
all that spells sub 7:30 to me. If Komen could run 7:20, Lagat in good in shape and in a great battle can run under 7:30. -
KIR wrote:
It looks like Lagat's all time 3000 best is 7:32:xx, seems unlikely that he's going to go 3 seconds faster at this point in his career.
Fool -
Lagat is unbeaten his last 11 races at 3000/2M since running 7:44 behind Bekele in 2004. It seems he's never been in one of those fast sub-7:30 races. Hard to imagine he'll not be with the leaders at the very least
2004
7:44.58i 4 BIG Boston MA 31 Jan
7:34.96i 1 Athina 2004 Athína 22 Feb
7:47.70i 1h2 WC Budapest 5 Mar
7:56.34i 1 WC Budapest 6 Mar
2005
7:38.00 1 WAF Monaco 9 Sep
2006
7:34.41 1 Vard Réthimno 21 Jul
7:50.49 1 v3Nat Birmingham 20 Aug
2007
7:32.43i AR 1 Norw Union Birmingham 17 Feb
7:38.77 1 WK Zürich 7 Sep
2008
7:34.65i 1 GE Galan Stockholm 21 Feb
8:12.45 2M 1 Pre Eugene OR 8 Jun
8:02.97 1 WAF Stuttgart 13 Sep
2009
7:35.41i 1 Sparkassen Stuttgart 7 Feb -
Lagat's best of 7:32.43 (incidently US i record)was set indoors in 2005.
With BK 7:30.84 that gives a difference of 1.59, which could made up outdoors
Still don't think the record will go though -
agree there!
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ukathleticscoach wrote:
Lagat's best of 7:32.43 (incidently US i record)was set indoors in 2005.
With BK 7:30.84 that gives a difference of 1.59, which could made up outdoors
Still don't think the record will go though
Good point, he has already run equivalent 7:30 for an outdoor race.
On another note Kipchoge has already run 7:28 this season, and also 13:00. So he is clearly ready to go sub 7:30. You don't think Lagat can hang with him?? And Shaheen has run 7:32 after a lay off due to injury, and is getting in better and better shape it sounds like. He is probably ready for sub 7:30 also. Cherkos (Feleke) has run 7:32 as a teen. Lastly, Teg ran and equivalent 7:31 flat (converted from his 8:07 deuce) at Pre 2 years ago.
I think Lagat can run faster than Teg has at the distance for sure (since he is better at BOTH the 1500 and mile than Teg), and faster than Kennedy, a guy who Lagat could destroy at 1500, and equal at 5k. Especially with all these sub/low 7:30 guys in the race. We will see (bad conditions and bad pacing can destroy any potential fast race of course), but I say he does it. -
I dont think he will get it.
The Problem is that the field is to good for a fast time!!!
I often see this races with a lot of great guys and afterwards everybody waited for the last lap.....
I think the race wil be around 7:33 but not as fast as Doha this year.
It is hard to predict who will win on Sunday but i choose Shaheen because i was really impressed by his perfomance in Doha and i hear that his training in Kenya went very well.
Lagat is definetly in good shape but i think his kick in the last 200m is right now not enough to win this race.
I´m looking forward to Sunday and maybe I´m wrong and we see a very fast race with a smiling Lagat..... -
lagat doesn't have the tools anymore. 7:34/35
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bernie is a consumate racer not by inclination a wabbit-chaser ( in the mold of an ovett )
i'd be very surprised if he was familiar with the american records over 1500/3k/5k until well into his citezenship
if after all, you have chased hicham to 3'26 & also lost a gold by a snails-dick, you are hardly going to be scuffing down the alltime lists looking for 3'29/7'29 or 12'58 !
i doubt he gives a monkey's whether he gets these records or not
at his peak, if he had sought the right opportunities, he'd have been hunting 7'20 & maybe 12'45, not wondering at 34y whether he can get 7'29s & 12'58s
unless there is a bonus paid for breaking the american record, i doubt he's much interested -
ventolin wrote:
unless there is a bonus paid for breaking the american record,
I'd be very surprised if there is not. -
agree there!
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I cannot add too much to this post [i.e., 'what he said'] but I will note that if you look at just four of those races [WC, two WAF Finals, and Zurich] you may appreciate that he has won many of the top 3000s and he has beaten some sub-7:30 guys. He is a racer rather than a marks chaser.
2004
7:56.34i 1 WC Budapest 6 Mar
2005
7:38.00 1 WAF Monaco 9 Sep
17 Feb
7:38.77 1 WK Zürich 7 Sep
2008
8:02.97 1 WAF Stuttgart 13 Sep
[/quote]
ey_4runner wrote:
Lagat is unbeaten his last 11 races at 3000/2M since running 7:44 behind Bekele in 2004. It seems he's never been in one of those fast sub-7:30 races. Hard to imagine he'll not be with the leaders at the very least
2004
7:44.58i 4 BIG Boston MA 31 Jan
7:34.96i 1 Athina 2004 Athína 22 Feb
7:47.70i 1h2 WC Budapest 5 Mar
7:56.34i 1 WC Budapest 6 Mar
2005
7:38.00 1 WAF Monaco 9 Sep
2006
7:34.41 1 Vard Réthimno 21 Jul
7:50.49 1 v3Nat Birmingham 20 Aug
2007
7:32.43i AR 1 Norw Union Birmingham 17 Feb
7:38.77 1 WK Zürich 7 Sep
2008
7:34.65i 1 GE Galan Stockholm 21 Feb
8:12.45 2M 1 Pre Eugene OR 8 Jun
8:02.97 1 WAF Stuttgart 13 Sep
2009
7:35.41i 1 Sparkassen Stuttgart 7 Feb -
26'er
it's worth pointing out that the marks over 1500/5k he closely resembles morceli
3'26 v 3'27 & 12'59 v 13'03
if morceli went 7'25, then a prime bernie shouda gone comparably
he's not prime anymore ( over 1500 at least ), but shoud still make shish-kebabs out of 7'30 -
Morceli could have gone significantly faster over 5000m.
He had a few (one?) attempts. -
so coud bernie
morceli ran 51 to finish his 13'03
bernie finished off his 12'59 with a 52, crushing kennster & only kicked from 200 out after shadowing him -
agree there.
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No
