Could Bekele go sub 10:00 for 4K?

I'd be willing to bet a lot on no.

Probably not, but he might get close. 12:37 for 5,000 is around 60.5/400m. Since 4,000m is 2-1/2 laps shorter, he could probably get the pace down to close to 60.

i'd say 10:04-10:06

that would be a beast of a distance to race just right. but it could also be a good distance to help bridge the gap from the 3200m to the 5000m for a lot of runners.

If he's in shape, yes.

in Paris in 2005, he split 7:32 at 3000m in a 5000m. He fell off in the final stages, but still ran 12:40. If he had only had one km left, I think he could have done it that day.

This should be THE distance race to stage - it has a certain inherent beauty and balance: ten men, ten laps and ten minutes, battling it out filling each of those unforgiving minutes with sixty seconds' worth of distance run.

It is much harder and more current than ten seconds or the four minute mile. It is much simpler than sub 13 or sub 27. And it is much more present than sub 2 for the marathon.

Someone should fund this race of races.

he is way past his best......right now the focus for him should be roads ,HM and marathon.

ok.....so what ten runners would fill this dream race?

I think many folks who actually watched the Beijing Olympics will disagree with you there. Never has he shown so much dominance in the 10k or the 5k. That 5000m he ran the last 6 laps with an average under 60 I believe. No one in the world could have hung with him then or now.

manbearpig wrote:

ok.....so what ten runners would fill this dream race?

Webb! Webb! Webb!

No, fagot.

Has Bekele run any 2miles? I know he's run 3ks (725 i think is his pr there) but i'm also aware that only one man has ever gone sub-8 in the 2mile, and it wasn't KB. To run 10:00 for 4k he'd have to come through 3200 is 8min exactly and hold on for 2 more laps. Granted a 2mile is 18m longer than a 3200, so its really like coming through 2miles in 8:03, something Bekele could certainly do. But he'd still have to hold on for 2 more laps. His world record 5k is 60.58 per lap, although that was 4 years ago and i don't see his being able to duplicate that time right now. His 3k pr is 59.3 per lap.

It'd be damn close, but i don't think he gets it. 10:03 is what i'd say, 60.3 per lap.

Komen would probably have a better shot at it IMO. 5 seconds faster at 3k, 2 seconds slower at 5k. I would predict Komen at 10:01.

kennster coud quite easily do it

at his peak, he probably was capable of 12'35/26'10 - 26'15 given ideal pacing

3 variations

12'35 with

26'15 ->~ 50.93 1'47.05 3'29.56 7'18.63 9'55.63

26'12.5 ->~ 51.29 1'47.58 3'30.22 7'19.18 9'55.95

26'10 ->~ 51.65 1'48.11 3'30.87 7'19.73 9'56.27

they all indicate ~ 9'55/9'56

not surprisingly, it's dictated by 5k time & any 5k guy with 12'40 can just about do it ( but they'll need ``3'32 speed with it )

if you give komen 3'29/12'39 simultaneous peak

-%% ~ 50.26 1'46.26 7'19.53 9'57.96 26'29.77

3000 record ~7:20 - 58.7/lap

5000 record ~12:39 - 60.7/lap

So 4000 logically somewhere in between (i.e. ~60/lap). I think it would need to be a 1500-5000 type like Lagat or El G and I think that sub 10 would be just about possible. I'd give steeplechase guys like Shaheen a good shot at it.

Bekele

2 mile indoor world best 8:04.35 (Birmingham, on 16 February 2008)

Agree peak Komen probably best contender but both just outside the mark

pedantic dick wrote:I think it would need to be a 1500-5000 type like Lagat or El G and I think that sub 10 would be just about possible. I'd give steeplechase guys like Shaheen a good shot at it.

they'd come up short as 4k is much nearer 5k than 1500, so it's the 5k ability which is paramount

running some estimates thru for a 3'26 guy

13'00 ->~ 46.74 1'42.07 7'24.24 10'10.16 27'47.47

12'55 ->~ 47.18 1'42.49 7'22.51 10'06.90 27'31.71

12'50 ->~ 47.61 1'42.91 7'20.79 10'03.64 27'15.95

12'45 ->~ 48.05 1'43.32 7'19.06 10'00.39 27'00.20

12'40 ->~ 48.49 1'43.74 7'17.33 9'57.13 26'44.44

( i woudn't take the 400/800 estimates for 13'00/12'55 too seriously as those 5k times are not of same "quality" as a 3'26 & you'll get artificially quick 400/800 times

a 3'26 guy shoudn't be looking at a "hypothetical" 5k slower than 12'50 to get something in line with 3'26 )

looking at above, ~12'47.5 seemed their limit ->

~ 47.83 1'43.11 7'19.92 10'02.01 27'08.07

manbearpig wrote:

ok.....so what ten runners would fill this dream race?

All runners at their peak season:

Daniel Komen

Kenny B

Haile Geb

El G

Saif Shaheen

Morcelli

Lagat

Eliud Kipchoge

Tergat

Another steeple guy - Barmasi? Wilson Boit Kipketer?

some coked up brit wrote:

This should be THE distance race to stage - it has a certain inherent beauty and balance: ten men, ten laps and ten minutes, battling it out filling each of those unforgiving minutes with sixty seconds' worth of distance run.

It is much harder and more current than ten seconds or the four minute mile. It is much simpler than sub 13 or sub 27. And it is much more present than sub 2 for the marathon.

Someone should fund this race of races.

Agree totally--a wonderfully logical barrier that will almost certainly never receive any attention at all. If I remember correctly, the fastest 4000 split is 10:08 by Komen in Brussels (his 12:39 race). On that day, he probably could have done 10:03/04 for that distance alone. It's a very tough barrier.

KB ran 10:07.93 in his WR race and 10:08.18 in the Paris race that he ran 12:40. I believe those are the two fastest times ever run. Komen ran 10:08.53 in his WR, and Geb ran 10:11.53 in his last WR.

bpence wrote:

KB ran 10:07.93 in his WR race and 10:08.18 in the Paris race that he ran 12:40. I believe those are the two fastest times ever run. Komen ran 10:08.53 in his WR, and Geb ran 10:11.53 in his last WR.

Very good info. Thanks. I can also report that Komen went thru in 10:10 (something like 10:10.7) in the 1996 Zurich race. Geb did 10:14 in his 12:44 race in '95 (which seemed really fast at the time!).