Much is said about the possibility (or otherwise) of a man running a 2 hour marathon.
Using generally accepted ( if there's such a thing) predictions from shorter distances,what half marathon PR would be needed to have a good shot at a 2 hour marathon?
Wanjiru is around 58:30 or so - is that remotely close?
Let debate ensue...
Closer to 56flat I bet.
I bet Wanjiru could run closer to 2 hours than lots of letsrunners think. The key is negative splitting. With all these major marathons going out at a suicidal pace it's no wonder Wanjiru hasn't run close to what he's capable of.
On a gut level, I'd say a 57 flat for someone who has a good HM to M conversion.
3200guy wrote:
I bet Wanjiru could run closer to 2 hours than lots of letsrunners think. The key is negative splitting. With all these major marathons going out at a suicidal pace it's no wonder Wanjiru hasn't run close to what he's capable of.
Yeah but that suicidal pace you talk about is usually 2 flat pace. Wanjiru may be able to go 2:02-2:03 with perfect weather and good pacers who take him through the half in an even paced 1:01 or so.
No on can ever go sub 2. It is impossible. If someone goes sub 2, their body will shut down.
The first 5k was covered in 14:06 in London this year. That's 1:59:14. I never said Wanjiru could break 2 hours, but I do think he could run 2:02 low to mid.
itsme wrote:
On a gut level, I'd say a 57 flat for someone who has a good HM to M conversion.
pretty much agree that 1/2M WR will be sub 57 before we see
1;59;59.
Going out on a limb-- 1/2M WR will be 56:40 or better when we see the first sub 2 hour Marathon.
Related question: how far can Wanjiru currently run at 2hr pace assuming an even pace?
i was going to say 57'00 as well but looking at paula's 1/2M/M ratio i got a shock !
she ran ~ 66'00 ( it was 65'40 on a downhill course, so add some tens of seconds to it ) & ~ 2"15 ( round it down - she did run slightly uneven splits )
(66'/2"15) * 120 = 58'40 !
on that basis, you don\'t have to go looking for 57'00 - in theory mid-58 can get you there, so wanjiru is potentially capable of already doing it
there is something funny going on here ?!
soon to be in attendance wrote:
Related question: how far can Wanjiru currently run at 2hr pace assuming an even pace?
I think under perfect conditions he could probably run 25k at 2:00:00 marathon pace which would obliterate Geb's 25k WR.
~57:40
These paces are insane--- Dibaba/Defar could barely get to 5k.