Ryan Gregson ran 13:56 for 5K in Melbourne yesterday ! Not what most would have expected after his 3:37 1500 ? Perhaps an off night or just not his distance. If this is the case it might be fair to predict that he will not be anywhere near German at World XC end of month ! German, perhaps is a different calibre runner, certainly from the point of view that he always performs !!
i dont think thats a good asumtion to make. i think he just had an "off" day. i mean he's run a 29:09 road 10k and beat out collis birbingham in the process of that race and that was the guy who wone this race in 13:16. so id say if fresh and healthy he should be right up around 13:25 or so. maybe he's just been focusing on the 1500 as of lately and hasnt been doing much longer stuff. you never know! but i'm sure in a month it will be an amazing race!
supposedly he ran the 3:37 off of pure strength training (8K-10K stuff) but this was most likely an off day while coming in with high expectations. probably wanted something in the 13:teens and completely fell off when it wasn't happening. he may be more of a 1500-3K runner at this point, but it was an 18 second PR I think. he'll be motivated for junior worlds now.
Not too surprising becasue from what I have heard is that he is an MD type. He will probably run better in his next 5k, but he probably is not going to run in the 13:20s as some predicted any time soon. From the video I saw of him last year, he looked really good, but he looked like a typical 800/1500 type.
Obviously not what anyone expected of Gregson and to be honest and can't see how he could place top-10 at Worlds after this race. I'd love to see him do it but this is a big blow to his confidence, I would imagine. And that time is not fast. Even for a bad race. Unless he's injured, I don't expect we'll ever see German run a 5k slower than 13:30s in his career.
Catch Me If You Can wrote:
Unless he's injured, I don't expect we'll ever see German run a 5k slower than 13:30s in his career.
I should correct myself. That's assuming it's a rabbited race like this one. Obviously if it's a tactical qualifier, it won't be run that fast.
I don't think the conditions were so great. It rained for the 400H, it was windy, all the sprint times were slow...don't write off Gregson yet.
I think it's bloody ridiculous to suggest gregson isn't capable of running a fast 5km, or even suggesting he isn't the more 15/5km type.
Please do a history check before you post about things you clearly know nothing about.
Just prior to gregson having getting his stress fracture he was beating the winner of last nights race (Collis Birmingham) over 10km.
Results from Burnie 10km road race 2008
1 9 Ryan Gregson 0:29:09 0:29:09
2 4 Ben St Lawrence 0:29:12 0:29:13
3 1 Martin Dent 0:29:14 0:29:15
4 7 Clint Perrett 0:29:15 0:29:16
5 6 Scott Wescott 0:29:30 0:29:26
6 2 Collis Birmingham 0:29:37 0:29:37
Oh and for interest sake, birmingham has appraching good shape right around then too, as he finished top 3 behind Gebrselassie in the Melbourne 15km.
For a little perspective, when Galen Rupp was a freshman at Oregon and running is 2nd or 3rd 5K ever, he fell down in a 5K race got up and went on to finish in 13:50. Despite fallind down this was a sub par performance as he had already run 13:37 in high school. He came back a month later to run a 10K in 28:15, going 14:17-13:58, alone after 15 laps.
German Fernandez is coming in as a much better runner than Galen as a freshman. There are two other freshman at 13:44 & 13:46. Those were their first track races of the indoor season.
I think Gregson along with Luke Puskedra and Chris Derrick have a chance to get in the 13:30 range by the end of the US collegiate season.
I think some people expected more after the Aussie madness over his 3:37. Most importantly I think Gregson expected a lot more. He was clearly on cloud 9 after the race, almost like he had just won a national championship. Looking at the 3 youngsters in the states, they have been making large strides while taking it in stride. They don't seem satisfied with anything or too excited about any of it, and that is likely while they will have steady performances and steady progress.
The good thing for Gregson is he has alleviated some pressure now and will have 3 targets at junior worlds. They are strong so if he can stick with them he should have a nice improvement from last year.
Gregson had a 6 week build up for that 3.37, he is not "in shape" right now, that is the scary thing, his aerobic capacity always had to suffer after the injury lay-off and tonight it showed.
If he can run 3.37 when he is in 13.56 shape, what will he be running when he actually gets into 13.20 shape!!!!
Also it should be noted he did not run with the group at 13.50 pace, he ran with the group at 13.16 pace then fell off, so he was probably closer to 13.40 than 14min shape last night.
SO the wind and rain ONLY affected him and not the guys who finished ahead of him?
The young guy Everest that finished in 13.49, I believe is only 18 as well!
go gregson wrote:
maybe he's just been focusing on the 1500 as of lately and hasnt been doing much longer stuff.
The same as Fernandez.
I have absolutely nothing to take away from a jr running a 3:37 1500m and as I stated he will ran a fast 5k at some point, but not right now. I simply implied that he seemed more like an MD runner and his 29:09 10K does not change that impression. He is very young and it takes more physical maturity to run a fast 5k than 1500 and I think his focus is in the right place for now. Why worry about the 5k when you are one of the top jr milers in the world.
I am assuming you are an Aussie and big Greyson fan; some advice....don't get your nickers in a bunch when someone makes the slightest unfavorable comment about Greyson becasue if you spend time on Letsrun you will hear much worst than what I said.
Gregson looked tired. I wouldn't look too much into it.
How old is Everest?
Same as Greg
observer at OP wrote:
How old is Everest?
3:37 is by far more impressive than German's mile... get over it
There are photos from the meet here now
gregson looks unco in those photos
I dont know about "by far more impressive." According to the McMillan calculator (ok there are others, i know) a 3:37 translates to a 3:53.7. The old standby of multiplying the 1500 time by 1.08 brings a 3:54.36 mile calculation from 3:37.00, obth of which are faster than Fernandez's 3:55.02. But let's remember Gregson ran outdoors, with world-class competition in the race, while Fernandez ran his indoors and against no one that wanted to stay within 10 seconds of him. Does that make one far greater than the other? No. They're probably about equal accomplishments, while yes, statistically speaking the 3:37 is superior.
I for one, do not believe Gregson is a 14 minute 5k runner after having seen that 3:37. The kid is gooooooood! He probably just had an off night, and I'm sure he'll run much much faster for 5K very soon. World XC will be very interesting, with some westerners quite possibly challenging for the single-digit placings.