Junior World Cross Country Championships - Make Your Predictions for Our 3 Young Studs Here, & Gregson Too!

At least one of the top 3 goes on to run 12:5X this summer and German will go close to 13:10, but the future is bright for these young westerners.

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Let me be clear, this was the top 3 in the race going 12:5x, meaning one of the africans.

my picks

1. ayele abshero- beat keninesa bekele in a 15k road run in november at age 17

2. kenyan, who is unknown due to no sea level track times

3. kenyan, also with no current sea level track times.

4. fernandez- inside the top 5 he is legit.

23rd. gregson

37th pudeskra

39th derrick

Top non Africans

6.German

7.Gregson

13.Luke

16.Young Norwegian who is only 17 i believe

25.Derrick

wanna be junior x-country star wrote:

Top non Africans

6.German

7.Gregson

13.Luke

16.Young Norwegian who is only 17 i believe

25.Derrick

the norwegian kids name is sondre norstad moen.

i always wondered why he has not been talked about more on letsrun, as young non-african prospects are usually talked about a lot on this site.

douglas burke wrote:

my picks

1. ayele abshero- beat keninesa bekele in a 15k road run in november at age 17

2. kenyan, who is unknown due to no sea level track times

3. kenyan, also with no current sea level track times.

4. fernandez- inside the top 5 he is legit.

23rd. gregson

37th pudeskra

39th derrick

Wow, are you predicting Puskedra and Derrick to go out in the top 3 and just blow up over the last 2K or get sick before the race?

You do remember these two leading the chase pack at NCAA's right?

In Luke's 2009 indoor debut and all time 5K debut just went 13:46 and Derrick's 2009 indoor debut and 2nd 5K went 13:44 all alone. And unlike German I really think their coaches have been keeping them on a strength oriented regimine.

Fernandez I can understand. But Gregson's PR is 14:14 from last year. Derrick ran 13:55 at Arcadia (a high school meet) solo, closing in 8:49. That was early in the season and he didn't get to run another one because he was injured.

Luke ran tough all cross season, sticking his nose in every race he was in and only two people ever showed they were clearly better than him in the NCAA, Rupp and Chelenga. A few people were able to pass him over the last quarter mile or half mile of a few races, but that's mostly due to the fact that he did a lot of pack leading during the race.

no i dont think they could go with the leaders for the 5k.

and i am not predicting they will get sick. i just dont think that they are that good YET.

i have a hunch that fernandez is for real.

Let's hear about this kid. I just googled, but everything is in Norse. What's his deal?

I think it highly unlikely that all 3 Americans and Gregson all run great races at Worlds. If even 2 of them do, that would be awesome because we could see 2 non-Africans crack the top-10.

These numbers are totally arbitrary, but just to have a prediction to look back on:

4. Fernandez

9. Derrick

17. Gregson

24. Puskedra.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not rooting for these results or even this exact finishing order. But it's similar to predicting the winners of every NFL game on a given Sunday; you have to predict a couple upsets and it's pretty much just a guess as to which teams will show up and which won't.

douglas burke wrote:

no i dont think they could go with the leaders for the 5k.

and i am not predicting they will get sick. i just dont think that they are that good YET.

i have a hunch that fernandez is for real.

It took German nearly 8K to catch them at NCAA cross country. German was 25th last year at Junior Worlds. Do you really predict them to be much further back than he was last year? I think they are much better than he was last year, and actually not much slower than he is now.

German is amazingly talented. But it's pretty clear that his lack luster performance at NCAA's even before he dropped out served to motivate him through December and January and he came into that first mile race with a lot to prove.

Chris and Luke on the other hand had already proved a lot at the NCAA championships. They did what they should have and took a full mental and physical break before starting to ramp up again.

As amazing as German's USA junior x-c victory was, it was really one guy who was very read VS. two other guys who showed up to qualify and give there best efforts. Luke hadn't even raced since November. German is more talented, no doubt. But I think these guys will close the margin down at worlds. It's not like German came out of a cocoon right after NCAA cross country. He is on a tear mentally, and he is very talented physically. We already knew that from last summer. However the fall showed who he is as a cross country runner. Damn good, but not on another planet in comparison to Luke and Chris.

1. German Fernandez

2. Ayele Abshero

3. Kenyan

4. Kenyan

5-8 other African countries

9. Puskedra

10. Derrick

15. Ryan Gregson

he just turned 18 on january 12th, his times are

1500- 3:54

3k-8:12

5k-14:02

10k- 29:21

3ksteeple 9:10

altitude and conditions will play a factor. only 1000m 3000ft but a concern still. advantage africans

just a side note last year in the world xc.

25th german fernandez

28th sondre norstad moen

31st ryan gregson

bennyb0y wrote:

altitude and conditions will play a factor. only 1000m 3000ft but a concern still. advantage africans

If that is true you are absolutely right. This may help Luke too since he grew up in Utah. 3000 feet makes a huge difference when you are running all out, especially for 8K, and you are used to sea level.

These guys will need to go out more conservative and try to be in the mid 20's at halfway if they want a shot at top 10, otherwise it could be some major O2 debt.

Speaking of young stars. AFD keep churning them out. Check out this girl.

http://www.athleticsdata.com/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=17124

douglas burke wrote:

my picks

1. ayele abshero- beat keninesa bekele in a 15k road run in november at age 17

2. kenyan, who is unknown due to no sea level track times

3. kenyan, also with no current sea level track times.

4. fernandez- inside the top 5 he is legit.

23rd. gregson

37th pudeskra

39th derrick

1- fernandez

15- derrick

16- puskedra

35- gregson

At least one or two will fold out of these 4. Someone said it's at altitude.

Puskedra 11th

Fernandez 12th

Gregson 19th

Derrick 25th

I see Fernandez going for it, hitting the altitude debt and competition wall and fading over the last 2K. I see Luke being patient staying in the chase group pack and slowly picking a few people off during the last 3K. When he sees German vulnerable, that will be his new goal. I believe he has experience racing at altitude and that is valuable. I see Derrick trying to stick on Luke but panicking a bit at the lack of oxygen, giving into that fear and fading slowly. I see Gregson spotting all 3 in the beginning and waiting till 5K before making a run at them, not realizing how strong Luke and German are.

To the OP, you know in every race this year, German has gone out a decent amount behind the leaders, and then moves up by the end of the race to make his move up front. He never goes out over his head. I'm sure he'll go out a little harder than normal because it would be tough to gauge. I don't think he'll go out like an idiot, however. Dave Smith taught him to race well.

1000m is hardly "at altitude". It will make a small difference, but this isn't exactly Boulder. More like Nebraska (average altitude of ~800m). Don't think I've ever heard of people complaining about altitude in Nebraska.