I've been running off and on the past 4 months, averaging around 20 mpw (max of 28). A week ago I decided to jump in a local 5k race. My finish time was 18:30.
What kind of potential do I have? Any guesses on what I could run on 50-70 mpw?
For a frame of reference, in HS (I'm 24 now) I ran mostly shorter stuff. My PRs were:
200: 23.7
400: 52.4
800: 2:02
And yes, I'm aware that I suck by Letsrun standards.
There's only one way to know what you could run on 50-70mpw. Get out there and do it.
Your training sounds much like that training of many high school freshmen. Your time would be slightly above average for them, but you are ten years older, so I would guess your results were about average.
The average high schooler who can run 18:30 as a freshman runs in the 16s by senior year. Of course, average means everyone is either faster or slower than the average, with the 16s themselves being a lot of difference from 16:00 to 16:59, and others slower or faster than that.
Potential is a different question. Run harder, smarter, longer and likely you, as most any 24 year old male, could get in the 15s before you are old enough to slow down from age. Your 18:30 after four months suggests that you don't have potential to break 13:30 and likely not break 14:30. Typically, people who do, have prodigous results by the time they've been running modest miles four months (Alan Webb and Craig Miller come to mind, contending for first place in very competitive varsity races by then), already in the 15s by that point. Also talented, but less rare people, are usually in the 16s after four months. Was the 18:30 because of you not trying harder, training incorrectly, overweight, etc? Unknown, but 18:30 on your time and volume isn't prodigy level, just good.
Your direct question is unanswerable, as people are different. Of those different people, which one are you? Who knows? With your speed, and a year of 50-70 mile weeks you might be in the 15s, or you could still be setting a goal to get to 16:59.
Either way, the effort to get into better and better shape is a very worthy one.
The 1830 tells me you are jogging most of the 20 miles you run/week or werent pressed much in the 5000 you ran. Figure these marks are attainable with a good coach (assuming a distance runner build).
Speed, not volume sets the limit on your middle distance potential. The best 5000m runners in the world can run 144 range for 800m.
22+ 200
50 400
1'53 800
3'58 1500
8'45 3000
15' 5000
As for mileage, Lagat is running 45/week and doing OK.
The keyword is running. Drop down to 1730 before edging up the volume.
dsrunner has the day off wrote:
The 1830 tells me you are jogging most of the 20 miles you run/week or werent pressed much in the 5000 you ran. Figure these marks are attainable with a good coach (assuming a distance runner build).
Speed, not volume sets the limit on your middle distance potential. The best 5000m runners in the world can run 144 range for 800m.
22+ 200
50 400
1'53 800
3'58 1500
8'45 3000
15' 5000
As for mileage, Lagat is running 45/week and doing OK.
The keyword is running. Drop down to 1730 before edging up the volume.
You're right. Most of my training runs are around 7:30 to 8:00 minute pace. Although last week I threw in my fist "tempo run" so that the race wouldn't be a total shock. My pace for that run was at 6:30 per mile.
I'd be ecstatic if I ran under 16:30. Anything more is just gravy.
And I think that's good advice. I'll keep my volume the same and throw in some faster stuff. Hopefully this will knock off a nice chuck from my 5k race time.
Horrible advice. Increase the volume. You're running 20 miles a week? Run 40 a week, see what happens. Run 80 a week, see what happens.
Start running twice a day.
Oh, the poster above makes an excellent point. You can run faster, harder, smarter on lower miles before bumping them up gradually. Much of the journey from 18:30 to your potential is learning how to run at your maximal sustainable pace, which is typically much faster than the first year distance runner thinks. You learn to dig deeper and get tougher and faster in the process. I would agree that 18:30 to 17:30 could be attained by just getting more out of yourself on your current mileage.
Pardoxically, but with good reason, days off or slow runs are also a part of training, but when running only 20 miles per week, you likely already have several days off, so that is not an issue. You could do two fast and two pretty fast 5 mile runs per week, as the three days off would be rest.
Any advice to someone running an 18:30 5k off 20 miles a week who wants to run 16:30 that doesn't start with, "run more" is horrible advice.
do you ever do tempo runs? if you do tempo runs i would think you should be able to run much faster than 18:30. do 4-6 mile tempo runs once a week, even if your mileage doesn't go up very much. try adding one stress factor at a time and see how your body reacts.
irun wrote:
do you ever do tempo runs? if you do tempo runs i would think you should be able to run much faster than 18:30. do 4-6 mile tempo runs once a week, even if your mileage doesn't go up very much. try adding one stress factor at a time and see how your body reacts.
I did my only tempo run a week before the 5k race at 6:30 / mile pace. I'll start doing them weekly and see what happens.
"Miles make champions" Arthur Lydiard
it means you ran an 18:30 min 5k on 20 mpw