When will the 5000m AR be broken?

SEXCguy wrote:

chris derrick ran 13:55 and he's just in high school.

Dathan Ritzenhein ran 13:44 in high school and 13:27 as a true college frosh. His PR? 13:16. Galen Rupp ran 13:37 in high school. Think he'll ever break 13:00? No way.

Shannon Rowbury will break the women's 5000 AR this year.

Sagarin wrote:

SEXCguy wrote:

chris derrick ran 13:55 and he's just in high school.

Dathan Ritzenhein ran 13:44 in high school and 13:27 as a true college frosh. His PR? 13:16. Galen Rupp ran 13:37 in high school. Think he'll ever break 13:00? No way.

ritz is a marathoner and galen is going to be 10k for a little while longer before he will probably go the same direction

Sagarin wrote:

Not a chance. He needs to go sub-13:30 before you can even have him in any conversation. Remember, Goucher never broke 13:10, and he had as much talent and as hard a work ethic as anyone. Sub-13:00 is another level altogether. As I already said, capacity to run a sub-3:55 mile is probably the minimum requirement to even have a shot. Guys mentioned here like Joe Falcon, or Craig Mottram, or even Dave Moorcroft who soloed 13:00 back in 1982 all had one thing in common. They all broke 3:50 for the full mile. Guess who else has done that? Webb.

Teg has run 3:34, so I think that gives him a shot at sub 13. It is crazy that he and Falcon were coached by the same man when they were in high school.

give me some time and I will break it, I will go 12:57 at the US championships in 2009, then in 2012 I will go 12:33.75 at the olympics its going take that to win. I'll be running in the nike victory II, they will weigh 2.9 ounces it will be like running in socks. by 2012 each shoe will be speciafly molded to your feet so sizes go out the window, there will be a zipper to take it off and but it on.

Sagarin wrote:

SEXCguy wrote:

chris derrick ran 13:55 and he's just in high school.

Dathan Ritzenhein ran 13:44 in high school and 13:27 as a true college frosh. His PR? 13:16. Galen Rupp ran 13:37 in high school. Think he'll ever break 13:00? No way.

Ritz has also been one of the most injured professional athletes ever. Not to mention i think most believe he was in better shape then 1316 when he went 811 in the 2mile. That is more impressive then his 1316, especially since he is better the longer the distance gets.

[quote]germans! wrote:

(I could see German going 3:53-3:54 in a few years...)

Let's talk about mature athletes and not teenagers. A lot of things can happen on the way. Personally it's great how fast some kids can run. But fact is most of them are physically done way before they even reach full potential.

I think Teg will be the next one to do it. If Rupp or Ritz concentrated on the 5k for a season, they could both do it. Their sights are set on mebs 10k record. I think goucher is just too old.

Sagarin wrote:

I think Webb is about the only one with the wheels to do it as well (and his 10k implies he has the endurance) if he focused on it. And he should, because that is his ONLY chance at a championship medal of any kind. That or the steeple maybe if he could make the conversion.

Well based on the times he has run, the african strangle hold on the 5k and 10k I would say your completely wrong on this. If Webbs goal is championship medals he should stick to the 1500m or move down to the 800m. Or all the way up to the marathon I suppose. The point is anyone with a 3:30 or 1:43 is a medal contender but even if he goes 12:50 he could get shut out in the 5k. heck was it '03 worlds or '01 when team Ethiopia all ran sub 13 for the second 5k of the 10k. He'd be a fool to move up for a better shot at the medals.

well, no way it'll be derrick. that kid doesnt have much foot speed at all. he'll be a marathoner one day, mark my words

I say never.

Signed,

Urine Testing

I believe Webb can go over the last 600-800 with anyone in a championship 5000, if he trained for the event. I don't think he can go with anyone over the last 200 of a championship 1500, even if he specifically worked on closing speed. Just my opinion. He has shown me nothing to think otherwise.

As for the references to Ritz constantly being injured and moving up in distance along with Rupp, I concur with all of that, but I still don't think either of them are capable of a sub-13:00 anyway. People just don't realize how frigging hard sub-13:00 is and how far removed it is from 13:10, even if a 100 Kenyans can run it every year.

Day Man wrote:

Teg has run 3:34, so I think that gives him a shot at sub 13. It is crazy that he and Falcon were coached by the same man when they were in high school.

I agree.

Sagarin wrote:

I don't think he can go with anyone over the last 200 of a championship 1500, even if he specifically worked on closing speed. Just my opinion. He has shown me nothing to think otherwise.

Really? Off the top of my head, I can recall two instances of a good kick in the last 200m of a 1500m - that race where he outkicked Mehdi Baala, and that Ostrava race.

Webb vs Baala

Webb at Ostrava

Adam Goucher has promised us a sub 13:00. If sub 13:00, why not 12:54?

Adam Goucher will have the AR by August.

Some of you guys are funny. Rupp will break it? Please. The kid hasn't even run sub 4:00. There's no way in hell Rupp ever gets it.

Goucher is just too old. He had the potential, but things just never seemed to go right for Adam.

Lagat obviously has the best shot since he's run 12:59 twice.

Teg has the second fastest PR of 13:04, has the speed, and is a 5k specialist.

Webb definitely has the speed, and he's proven himself at the longer distances. His 27:34 converts to 13:10 I believe, and since he IS a miler, one would assume he's capable of at least 13:05.

I could actually see someone like Solinsky having a shot at it. He's run 7:36 and 13:12. I realize it gets pretty hard to take off time when you're running that fast, but Chris still has a lot of time, and it sounds like he's really upped his training this fall, so a PR is likely come summer.

Everyone thought Hall would break it after his 59:43. I really wish he would come back to the track during the summer. He really is a great marathoner, and that is what his focus should be, but he ran like 13:14 back in 2005. If he could get back into that shape (or faster) for 5k, I could see him running 27:20 or faster for 10k.

Ritz? I don't really see him going much faster than 13:10. His potential is at 10k-marathon.

People may forget, but Fam ran 13:11 pretty much all alone two years ago, and he's run 3:35 and 27:38. I doubt he'll run under 13:00, but he has an outside shot at it.

Guppy wrote:

Goucher is just too old. He had the potential, but things just never seemed to go right for Adam.

Goucher certainly had the potential. His 1500/mile is faster than Kennedy's and their 2 miles are about the same (Kennedey's 3k is 4 seconds faster though). For awhile back in 1999-2000 it felt ineviatable that Goucher would be the next Kennedy. He ran 13:11, and then won the long and short course at the US cross champs on back to back days and then dominated the trials 5k. Then he hurt his back, then his achilles, and on and on....

Tim Broe was another who may have had the potential if not for injuries.

German Fernandez 2012 12:54!

Solomon Haile in 2013: 12:49.76

Should stop people from whining about him being underaged.