Projected Men's National Qualifiers (At-Large)

I'm going to revise things quickly, but it doesn't make a difference because it's only a revision of the order.

Notre Dame has a head-to-head tie-break over Villanova, so Villanova can't go in 5th. Portland, however, has a tie-break over Notre Dame.

Therefore, after the top four I have this:

5. Portland

6. Cal

7. NC State

8. Butler (pushed)

9. Notre Dame (pushing)

10 Indiana

11 Villanova

12 Florida

13 Washington

Villanova gets a tie-breaker over Florida because the common opponent record is 1-1, but Villanova's victory over Providence was more recent than Florida's victory over Notre Dame.

The reason the west doesn't get more is that Washington beat Florida, meaning that they end up with 1 point which is enough for the final at-large spot. Therefore they cannot be pushed, therefore they end up blocking a lot of teams that have a lot of points.

That's my projection, at least.

Also, the individual qualifiers:

Great Lakes

Chris Lemon (Dayton), Pat Sovacool (Miami Oh), Scott Keeney (Indiana St.), Matt Lemon (Dayton)

West

Daniel Gonia (Cal Poly), Paul Limpf (Eastern Washington), Laef Barnes (UCLA) Erick Garcia (Fresno St.)

Mid-Atlantic

Michael Maag (Princeton), Brian Leung (Princeton), Alex Lundy (Maryland) Kyle Murray (St. Joseph's)

Southeast

Samuel Chelanga (Liberty), Adam Henken (Kentucky), Matt Llano (Richmond), Bo Waggoner (Duke)

South

Mark Steeds (Georgia St), Micah Tirop (South Alabama), Robert Scribner (Mississippi St.) or Emmanuel Kirwa (Chattanooga)

South Central

Samuel Kosgei (Lamar), Festus Kigen (Texas Christian), Francis Kasagule (Lamar), Idillio Campos, (Texas-Arlington)

Mountain

Mark Korir (Wyoming), Japheth Ng'ojoy (UTEP), Patrick Mutai (UTEP), Nicodemus Ng'etich (UTEP)

Midwest

Jeff Schirmer (Southern Illinois), Jonah Lagat (Oral Roberts), Jesse Luciano (Iowa), Garett Jeffries (Missouri)

Northeast

Ben True (Dartmouth), Daniel Chenoweth (Harvard), Timothy Ritchie (Boston College), Glenn Randall (Dartmouth), PLUS AT-LARGE SELECTIONS Brad Miller (Syracuse), Dan Busby (Syracuse)

So, Syracuse gets both of the at-large individual spots.

your missing, the Texas kid as an individual in the south central.

Ah yeah, Jake Morse was 5th, meaning that Texas-Arlington kid is out. Good catch.

I'm in agreement with you in your first 6

But here are my thoughts on 7-13...

7. Washington (1-Cal at Pac-10s)

*Notre Dame goes before Nova (ND over Nova at Big East), then you look at ND compared to NC State. NC State beat Notre Dame at Pre-Nats. Now Washington vs. NC State...You look at common opponents (Cal Poly and Cal) Washington has wins over both (Cal Poly at the Regional and Cal at Pac-10s) while NC State has losses to each (both at Pre-Nats Blue). So Washington goes. Let the West flood gate open!

8. UCLA (5)

9. Cal Poly (2)

10. NC State (1)

11. Butler (pushed)

12. Notre Dame (1)

13. Indiana (3)

So here is the the field of 31...

1. William & Mary

2. Virginia

3. OK State

4. Minnesota

5. Oregon

6. Stanford

7. Wisconsin

8. Michigan

9. Georgetown

10. Penn State

11. Alabama

12. Auburn

13. Texas AM

14. Arkansas

15. Colorado

16. NAU

17. Iona

18. Providence

19. BYU

20. FSU

21. Tulsa

22. Iowa St

23. Portland

24. Cal

25. Washington

26. UCLA

27. Cal Poly

28. NC State

29. Butler

30. Notre Dame

31. Indiana

Any questions?

PS - Portland goes in 6 with 2 wins (Penn State and Alabama at Bill Dellinger).

so according to your predictions there will be two more individual at-large slots available (bumping the number up to four total). who gets them?

I meant to say Portland goes in 5th with 2.

I got something slightly different. Here's my logic, hopefully I didn't make any errors:

The autos, with their schedules. Bx represents a B-team with the number of Regional runners that ran. NL means no losses to any teams that could potentially get at large. Otherwise, it's the teams they lost to.

NE1-Iona:Syracuse,Villanova@Short, B3@Pre-Nats White, B0@Dual Meet, NL@MAAC, B1@USATFNE

NE2-Providence:Florida State,Tulsa@Notre Dame, B0@New Englands, Florida State,Cal Poly, Cal@Pre-Nats Blue, B3@Central Connecticut State, Notre Dame, Villanova@Big East

MA1-Georgetown:NL@Penn State, NL@Big East

MA2-Penn State:Portland,UCLA,Cal Poly,Weber

State,Colorado State@Dellinger, NL@Penn State, NL@Big 10

SE1-William&Mary:NL@Colonial, B1@Tribe, Florida State@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@CAA, B0@Cavalier

SE2-Virginia:NL@George Mason, BYU,UCLA@Pre-Nats White, NL@ACC, B0@Cavalier

S1-Alabama:B1@Auburn, Portland@Dellinger, NL@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@SEC

S2-Auburn:Iowa State,BYU@Griak, NL@Auburn, BYU@Pre-Nats White, NL@SEC

GL1-Wisconsin:B0@Lakefront, NL@Short, B0@Drews, NL@Big 10

GL2-Michigan: Florida State,Tulsa,Butler,Notre Dame,Florida,New Mexico@Notre Dame, NL@Pre-Nats Blue, B1@Eastern Michigan, NL@Big 10

SC1-Texas A&M:Florida State,Tulsa@Notre Dame, NL@Chili Pepper, Iowa State@Big 12

SC2-Arkansas:Cal@Stanford, NL@Chile Pepper, NL@SEC

MW1-Oklahoma State:NL@Cowboy, B2@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@Big 12

MW2-Minnesota:Iowa State,BYU@Griak,Bx@Drews, Florida State@Pre-Nats Blue, B1@Drews, NL@Big 10, B0@St Johns

MT1-Colorado:NL@Rocky Mtn Shootout, BYU,UCLA,Tulsa,Indiana@Pre-Nats White, B1@Air Force, NL@Big 12

MT2-Northern Arizona:B0@Arizona State, NL@Cowboy, NL@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@Big Sky

W1-Oregon:NL@Dellinger, B0@Hodges, B0@Beaver, NL@Pac 10

W2-Stanford:NL@Stanford, B1@Davis, NL@Pre-Nats White, NL@Pac 10

13 selections remain:

Bubble teams: S3-Florida State 6,MT3-BYU 5,MW3-Tulsa 4,MA3-Villanova 2,W3-Portland 2,GL3-Butler 1,SE3-NC State 0,SC3-Lamar 0,NE3-Columbia 0

Potential Pushers: MW4-Iowa State 3,GL4-Notre Dame 2,W4-Cal 2,S4-Florida 1,MT4-New Mexico 1,NE4-Dartmouth 0, MA4-Princeton 0,SE4-Duke 0,SC4-Texas 0

Others with points (currently blocked):NE5-Syracuse 1, W7-Cal Poly 2, W6-UCLA 3, MT8-Weber St 1,MT7- Colorado State 1, GL5-Indiana 1

S3-Florida State qualifies with 6 points

Florida State:B0@Florida State, NL@Notre Dame, B0@Auburn, NL@Pre-Nats Blue, NC State,Virginia Tech@ACC

MT3-BYU qualifies with 5 points

BYU:Iowa State@Griak, B0@Utah Valley, NL@Pre-Nats White, NL@Mountain West

Tulsa and Iowa State each have 4 points. Tulsa beat Iowa State HTH at Regionals.

MW3-Tulsa qualifies with 4 points

Tulsa:NL@Notre Dame, UCLA@Pre-Nats White, NL@Conference USA

MW4-Iowa State qualifies with 4 points

Iowa State:NL@Griak, B2@Bradley, UCLA,Indiana@Pre-Nats White, NL@Big 12

9 selections remain:

Bubble teams: MA3-Villanova 2,W3-Portland 2,S4-Florida 1,MT4-New Mexico 1,GL3-Butler 1,SE3-NC State 1,MW5-Missouri 0,SC3-Lamar 0,NE3-Columbia 0

Potential Pushers: GL4-Notre Dame 2,W4-Cal 2,MW6-Southern Illinois 0,S5-Tennessee 0,MT5-Air Force 0,NE4-Dartmouth 0, MA4-Princeton 0,SE4-Duke 0,SC4-Texas 0

Others with points (currently blocked):NE5-Syracuse 1, W7-Cal Poly 2, W6-UCLA 5, MT8-Weber St 1,MT7- Colorado State 1, GL5-Indiana 2, SE7-Virginia Tech 1

Villanova, Portland, Notre Dame, Cal each have 2 points. Portland beat Cal HTH at Regionals. Notre Dame beat Villanova HTH at Big East. Portland's only losses on the year are to Oregon and Stanford. Portland beat Cal at Regionals. Cal beat Notre Dame at Pre-Nats Blue. Portland qualifies.

Portland:B0@Willamette, NL@Dellinger,B0@Hodges,B0@Beaver, B2@WCC

8 selections remain:

Bubble teams: MA3-Villanova 2,W4-Cal 2,S4-Florida 1,MT4-New Mexico 1,GL3-Butler 1,SE3-NC State 1,MW5-Missouri 0,SC3-Lamar 0,NE3-Columbia 0

Potential Pushers: GL4-Notre Dame 2,MW6-Southern Illinois 0,S5-Tennessee 0,MT5-Air Force 0,NE4-Dartmouth 0, MA4-Princeton 0,SE4-Duke 0,SC4-Texas 0,W5-Washington 0

Others with points (currently blocked):NE5-Syracuse 1, W7-Cal Poly 2, W6-UCLA 5, MT8-Weber St 1,MT7- Colorado State 1, GL5-Indiana 2, SE7-Virginia Tech 1

Villanova, Cal, and Notre Dame each have 2 points. Notre Dame beat Villanova HTH at Big East. Cal beat Notre Dame HTH at Pre-Nats Blue. Cal qualifies.

Cal:NL@Stanford, B0@Bronco, Cal Poly@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@Pac 10

7 selections remain:

Bubble teams: MA3-Villanova 2,S4-Florida 1,MT4-New Mexico 1,GL3-Butler 1,SE3-NC State 1,MW5-Missouri 0,SC3-Lamar 0,NE3-Columbia 0,W5-Washington 0

Potential Pushers: W6-UCLA 5,GL4-Notre Dame 2,MW6-Southern Illinois 0,S5-Tennessee 0,MT5-Air Force 0,NE4-Dartmouth 0, MA4-Princeton 0,SE4-Duke 0,SC4-Texas 0

Others with points (currently blocked):NE5-Syracuse 1, W7-Cal Poly 2, MT8-Weber St 1,MT7- Colorado State 1, GL5-Indiana 2, SE7-Virginia Tech 1

UCLA has 5 points, but is blocked by Washington. At this point, I need to continue the rest of the process assuming UCLA does not push Washington here. The qualifiers would be Villanova (2 points -this assumes that Notre Dame cannot push Butler), NC State (see below for how they win the 4-way tie at 1 point over Florida, New Mexico and Butler), Butler (see below for how they win the 3-way tie with 1 point over Florida and New Mexico), Notre Dame (only team with multiple points), Indiana (only team with multiple points), Florida (HTH over New Mexico with 1 point), and Washington (picks up a point for beating Florida). While Washington would qualify in the final spot, UCLA would not qualify, so this chain of selections is scrapped, and UCLA is allowed to use the push here.

Washington:Regular season results not used since pushed

UCLA:B0@Stanford, NL@Dellinger, NL@Pre-Nats White, NL@Pac 10

5 selections remain:

Bubble teams: MA3-Villanova 2,W7-Cal Poly 2,S4-Florida 1,MT4-New Mexico 1,GL3-Butler 1,SE3-NC State 1,MW5-Missouri 0,SC3-Lamar 0,NE3-Columbia 0

Potential Pushers: GL4-Notre Dame 2,MW6-Southern Illinois 0,S5-Tennessee 0,MT5-Air Force 0,NE4-Dartmouth 0, MA4-Princeton 0,SE4-Duke 0,SC4-Texas 0

Others with points (currently blocked):NE5-Syracuse 1, MT8-Weber St 1,MT7- Colorado State 1, GL5-Indiana 2, SE7-Virginia Tech 1

Villanova, Cal Poly, and Notre Dame each have 2 points

Notre Dame beat Villanova HTH at Big East. Cal Poly beat Notre Dame HTH at Pre-Nats Blue. Cal Poly qualifies.

Cal Poly:B0@Stanford, NL@Dellinger, B0@Cal Poly, NL@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@Big West

Notre Dame and Villanova each have 2 wins, but Notre Dame has beaten Villanova HTH. At this point, I will assume that Butler and Notre Dame will both qualify if the push is not used. But if this does not happen, I must return to this point and allow Notre Dame to push Butler.

Villanova qualifies.

Villanova:Syracuse@Short, NL@Penn State, Notre Dame@Big East

3 selections remain:

Bubble teams: S4-Florida 1,MT4-New Mexico 1,GL3-Butler 1,SE3-NC State 1,MW5-Missouri 0,SC3-Lamar 0,NE3-Columbia 0, MA4-Princeton 0, W8-Arizona State 0

Potential Pushers: GL4-Notre Dame 3,MW6-Southern Illinois 0,S5-Tennessee 0,MT5-Air Force 0,NE4-Dartmouth 0, MA5-St Josephs 0,SE4-Duke 0,SC4-Texas 0

Others with points (currently blocked):NE5-Syracuse 2, MT8-Weber St 1,MT7- Colorado State 1, GL5-Indiana 2, SE7-Virginia Tech 1

Still assuming Notre Dame will not push Butler, Florida, New Mexico, Butler, and NC State each have 1 point. Butler beat Florida HTH at Notre Dame. NC State beat Butler and New Mexico HTH at Pre-Nats Blue. NC State qualifies.

NC State:NL@NC State, NL@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@ACC

Since Butler beat Florida and New Mexico HTH, Butler qualifies.

Butler:NL@Notre Dame, Notre Dame@Pre-Nats Blue, NL@Horizon

Notre Dame qualifies, so not allowing them to push Butler in was correct.

So if I figured everything right, bids by region are: W 7, GL 4, MW 4, MA 3, SE 3, S 3, MT 3, NE 2, SC 2

doesn't Florida make it because they beat Notre Damne?

Wow. So when are the qualifiers finalized?

I come up with the same qualifiers as Lucky above. The key to this analysis is deciding when to use the push. The committee has normally followed the precedent that the push is only used if the team being blocked can NOT get in on its own merit at some point later in the process.

So how Lucky did the analysis is correct. UCLA will NOT get in without the push, since Washington will never make it on their own. So it is appropriate to use the push with UCLA at the first opportunity.

With Butler and Notre Dame, as Lucky ran it, Butler and ND will both get in eventually on their own without the push. So the committee, by their precedent, will not use the push.

I still think we need another round of head to head instead of at-larges, but this is the process we have.

Florida and ND tied at the ND invite. Using either tiebreak (6th man or most head to head wins between #1 thru #5 runners) ND wins the tie break.

syracuse and nova beat IONA at Paul short with 4 men from regionals

Good call on the Paul Short meet.

Recalcuations...

At-Large

1. BYU - 6

2. FSU - 5

3. Tulsa - 4

4. Iowa State - 4

5. Portland - 2

6. Cal - 2

7. Villanova - 2 (missed the win over Iona at PS Invite)

8. Butler (PUSHED)

9. Notre Dame - 2 (Providence & Nova at Big East)

10. NC State - 2 (ND @ Pre-Nats & FSU @ ACCs)

11. Indiana - 2 (CU, Iowa St @ Pre-Nats)

12. Washington - 1 (Cal at Pac-10s)

13. UCLA - 5

I think it's right. I looked at FloTrack's video. They don't have Washington with any wins, but once Cal goes in Washington picks up a win against them via Pac-10s. Washington then will get in on their since Florida and Washington will be on the board at the same time in round 12 with 1 win each. Washington beat Florida at Pre-Nats putting them in the meet, followed by UCLA in the final spot with 5 wins.

Last 2 out...

Cal Poly

Florida

Danny Noonan wrote:

Florida and ND tied at the ND invite. Using either tiebreak (6th man or most head to head wins between #1 thru #5 runners) ND wins the tie break.

College does NOT use 6th man to break ties!

the kolas calculator dominated today. should be on the money come monday morning.

NCAA matches runners 1-5 from each team when the score is tied and best 3 of 5 win. At Pac 10, Cal beat Washington, since 3 of Cal's top 5 were ahead of Washington's respective placers.

Lucky has the win for Villanova over Iona at Paul Short taken into account in his analysis. With all the other rules applied by the committee, looks like Lucky may have nailed it.