Qualifying for Nationals: Complete Compilation of Potential At-Large Points Prior to Regionals

Some things that jump out at me from this list:

--There are a lot of scenarios where the Great Lakes only gets 2 qualifying teams

--Colorado probably has to finish in the top two to qualify (WOW)

--Arkansas, without a doubt, has to finish in the top two (shouldn't be too hard)

Actually, if your list is correct, it's hard to find 13 at-large teams who make it ahead of Colorado. Granted, their position isn't great, but even if they finish 4th in the regional behind UTEP (which they won't) it would take pretty much a perfect storm to keep them out. It's possible, but not very likely.

Hold on... wrote:

Actually, if your list is correct, it's hard to find 13 at-large teams who make it ahead of Colorado. Granted, their position isn't great, but even if they finish 4th in the regional behind UTEP (which they won't) it would take pretty much a perfect storm to keep them out. It's possible, but not very likely.

Ah yeah you're right. Looking at it more closely it does seem unlikely. Certainly possible though.

Also I got a bit carried away with the Great Lakes prediction. There are certainly a lot of ways where only 4 or even 3 teams get in from that region, but only 2 qualifying is, again, possible but unlikely.

Why no Columbia on the list? Aren't they less of a long shot than Dartmouth because they could possibly be second in the Northeast? If they make it in a lot of teams get another point. Will they have any points?

No? wrote:

Why no Columbia on the list? Aren't they less of a long shot than Dartmouth because they could possibly be second in the Northeast? If they make it in a lot of teams get another point. Will they have any points?

You're right that I probably could've included Columbia on the list. I didn't because I don't think they have a prayer. As far as at-large points, the only potential points I see would be victories over Cornell and Dartmouth at Heps, but those don't matter because the only paths I see for Columbia to make nationals are finishing in the top two, or, if Syracuse is 2nd, Columbia 3rd, and Portland 4th then Syracuse would give Portland enough at-large points to push Columbia in with them. No matter what, Columbia has to beat either Providence or Iona to make it in.

Yes, if Columbia somehow did this then every team that finished ahead of them in the White Race at Pre-nats would get another point.

So not to knock Columbia, because I think their 2-second spread at heps was amazing, but I had to draw a line somewhere, and I don't think they have a prayer. Dartmouth has a low stick which I thought gives them a much better chance at the upset at regionals (although I don't think they really have much of a chance either).

LetsRunOurMouths wrote:

...the only paths I see for Columbia to make nationals are finishing in the top two, or, if Syracuse is 2nd, Columbia 3rd, and Portland 4th then Syracuse would give Portland enough at-large points to push Columbia in with them...

Obviously that should have read Providence instead of Portland

If you look at Columbia's times at Heps vs Providence at Big East (same day, same course, very similar races), Columbia wins. It's not outrageous to think they can make it in with an auto bid. Providence is weak in the 4-5 spots and Columbia is solid 1-7, so if they put 5-7 in front of Providence's 4th, it could happen.

Columbia is peaking very well based on their improvement after Pre Nationals and if their pack moves up a tiny bit, they could be seeing a score of around 100-110 at Regionals which could be enough to edge out Providence(who would still make it with at large).

Hypothetical

Providence(this is with their normal 3rd)

5

14

17

19

50

thats about 105 points

But... wrote:

If you look at Columbia's times at Heps vs Providence at Big East (same day, same course, very similar races), Columbia wins. It's not outrageous to think they can make it in with an auto bid. Providence is weak in the 4-5 spots and Columbia is solid 1-7, so if they put 5-7 in front of Providence's 4th, it could happen.

It absolutely could happen, but I think it would take a miracle. And it would have much more to do with Providence having a bad race than Columbia running well.

You claim that combining Columbia and Providence's conference races leads to Columbia winning, but I'm sure you see how misleading that is. In a dual like that, or any smaller race, the benefits of low runners are negated while the benefits of a strong pack are maximized. If you take the average time from each team from those conference races, Providence was faster, averaging 25:04.6 to 25:07.6. In fact, Dartmouth, who Columbia beat by some 30 points at conference, also had a faster average at 25:05.8.

Granted, these times are much closer than I expected. Certainly an upset is possible, and given that I should probably have included Columbia in the at-large list. But the bigger the race the worse it's going to be for Columbia. Big East was probably the worst race of the year for Providence, and Heps was definitely the best for Columbia. Maybe you think that means Providence is fading and Columbia is peaking, but I would say that means Columbia needs a miracle to beat them in a bigger race. I mean, Providence will probably score between 30-40 pts for their first 3 guys, and Columbia will be lucky to be in the 60s for their top three (I mean, they totaled 33 at heps alone). That's way too much to make up with strong packing from their 4-5.

Thanks for the analysis :).

so at regionals if providence runs miserably and gets 4th, which is probably the worst they could do. they will probly get in and push #3 in.

runtheUSof A wrote:

so at regionals if providence runs miserably and gets 4th, which is probably the worst they could do. they will probly get in and push #3 in.

Well, it depends. If we look at Providence's scalps, we can reasonably assume that Notre Dame and NC State will both make it to nationals. Because Providence beat Notre Dame twice, that would give them 3 at-large points.

Providence's other scalps are Butler (twice), Dartmouth, Florida, and Syracuse (also twice). If Providence gets 3rd or 4th at regionals, AND Syracuse gets 2nd, then Providence would get two more points from Syracuse's scalps and would have 5. It would then be very hard for them to not make it in, and if they were 4th and made it in, then whoever was 3rd would make it in vicariously. So if, for example, Syracuse was 2nd, Columbia was 3rd, and Providence 4th then they would all (probably) make it.

However, if Providence were 4th (or 3rd) and Syracuse was not in the top two, then they would have to hope that, against the odds, someone amongst Butler, Florida, or Dartmouth would make it in and give them more points. Looking at the list it appears that 3 at-large points will probably not be enough. So if, for example, Columbia was 2nd, Cornell was 3rd, and Providence was fourth then both Cornell and Providence would (probably) stay home.

Didn't some teams who ran at Notre Dame (FSU,Tulsa,Texas, Prov,Butler,Notre Dame etc) beat Princeton and so potentially could gain points from Princeton making it out their region?

Ah, yeah I see that. Good Catch.

Damn, wish we could edit posts on Letsrun. Princeton's got a good chance of making it, too.

That would mean that all those teams you listed would have one more scalp (except it would be Texas A&M, not Texas). As far as I see it, this is most relevant for Notre Dame, Tulsa and of course Providence. FSU, Texas A&M and Michigan probably won't need it, and it still probably won't be enough to help Butler.

However it does put a big wrench in the gears of my above analysis of the Northeast Region. With the extra point if Princeton gets 2nd in the Mid-Atlantic, Providence would have 4 at-large points without the help of Syracuse, which would probably be enough to get them to nationals if they didn't finish in the top two, which is of course good news for every team in that region.

Thanks for the correction. Damn this stuff is complicated.

I agree that PC will have to mess up big-time to not place top two. Syracuse is really the only team with any sort of a shot to make it out. Columbia will finish 4th at best.

Also, LetsRunOurMouths, you should tell Wejo to hire you. You seem like you really know your stuff. Letsrun should really invest in some analysts like yourself to contribute regularly to the site. Running needs more people like you to analyze the races before hand. It would be really cool to be able to read more about races before they happen through diligent analysis. That's one thing our sport lacks.

Looking at the new regional rankings and using the meet information these are the teams I get making it to Nats...

Autos

Wisco

Michigan

Gtown

Princeton

OK State

Minnesota

NAU

BYU

Iona

Providence

Bama

Auburn

Texas AM

Arkansas

Virginia

W&M

Oregon

Stanford

At-Large (in order)

1. FSU (6 wins)

2. Tulsa (3 wins)

3. Iowa St (4 wins)

4. Colorado (2 wins)

5. Indiana (2 wins)

6. ND (2 wins)

7. NC State (2 wins)

8. MSU (Pushed by Butler since there is no way for them to get in on their own)

9. Butler (2 wins)

10. Portland (1 win)

11. Cal (6 or 7 wins I might have miscounted but definitely next)

12. Cal Poly (4 wins)

13. Penn State (1 win)

Some people looking through this might wonder why Penn State gets in.

Teams on the board with 1 win going into the final round are Eastern Michigan, Penn State, Florida, and Washington

Washington beat Eastern Michigan and Florida at Pre-Nats.

Penn State beat Indiana at Big 10s and Washington lost to IU at Pre-Nats.

Final thoughts...

6 from the Great Lakes...doesn't seem right.

Portland played it smart not giving up any cheap wins to teams.

Florida = Unlucky

UCLA = REALLY UNLUCKY

Hmmm....I'm not entirely sure what method you're using to speculate here, but I suspect there is a misunderstanding. I am certainly not the ultimate authority on this, but let me point out that the most important criterion that will be used to select teams will be the number of at-large points. So, given your scenario, Cal, with 6/7 points, would be selected either first or second. Even though they finished 4th in your scenario, they still have the right to be considered ahead of a 3rd placed team from regions other than their own. In your scenario this would result in the west using its push on Portland and, of course, affect a lot of selections further down the line.

And, of course, this is just speculation based on the regional rankings. Nothing comes to fruit until regionals are run and at-large points are established. What I find really frustrating about the qualifying system is that it becomes really hard to predict who will make it in, because if you want to speculate you have to speculate for the entire system. It's a challenge to answer a question like "will Colorado make it if they finish 3rd in their region" without knowing the results of all the other races.

In your scenario, though, given the corrections I still think UCLA would not make it in. What becomes really dangerous for a team like them in a tough region is having solid teams like Portland and Washington who have hardly any at-large points. If they finish behind both of those teams at regionals they get locked out. Probably true as well for anyone finishing behind both Indiana and Butler in the Great Lakes.

I agree with you in the fact that it's the number of points that ultimately makes the team into the meet. But Portland puts a stop to having Cal go in really early. Cal could push Portland in, but they only use the push rule if BOTH teams can't make it into the meet on their own merit. By my calculations Portland will make it in without the push, and Cal will go in as well.

The system is crazy. And speculation is all this is. I guarantee that the final regional results will not reflect the current rankings, which could add a whole mess to who gets in and who stays home. But that's why you race regionals!

Okay, I spent some time looking over it again. It would be so much easier with that modeling software the selection committee has.

Anyway, it appears the misunderstanding was mine because I think I get the same result as you. My catch was that I didn't think Portland in 3rd had a path to nationals without the push, but yeah it seems that they end up being 10th in line so Cal wouldn't be able to jump ahead and push (which could only happen if that was Portland's only way in). In that case, UCLA would end up with a bunch of at-large points but wouldn't be able to push because there would only be one spot left after Cal Poly, which would be very unlucky. Damn this junk is complicated.

As for the person who suggests I get a job with letsrun, thank you for the compliment, but I suspect this thread wouldn't help me. I've made a handful of analyses on here and I've had to correct or amend almost every one :/