Big assumption, but assume his injuries are reasonably controlled.... How do you see his future, PR-Wise and WC/Olympic-Wise??
I predicted a medal, because he was "only" 1:59 away this time, with a ton of improvement ahead. Though granted, the world's improving too. But if he started marathoning just 2 years earlier, I think he would've nabbed the bronze. I also think his racing toughness is super ideal. A healthy Ritz running 26.2, IMO, is something to get excited about.
PR's in 3 years:
5K = 13:08
10K = 27:16
13.1 = 60:45
26.2 = 2:07:30
ttc wrote:
I predicted a medal, because he was "only" 1:59 away this time, with a ton of improvement ahead. .
Ritz was only 1:59 away because many others went out to hard, at the same time he could have been higher up if he hadn't gone out to hard. The fact that he was 1:59 away means absolutely nothing.
I think Ritz has huge potential if he stays healthy, but this race is rather irrelevant for many reasons when trying to guage where he is against the rest of the world.
What races would be relevant?
Marathons are too judgemental, Deena broke a leg and Puala ran the most painfull finish I've ever seen since Chris Leak shat his pants during the Ironman Triathlon.
Judgemental isn't probably the word. Unpredictable?
Ritzs PRs by the 2012 games-
3,000- 7:37
5,000- 13:07-10
10,000- 27:19
Half- 59:55
Marathon- 2:07:45
He will run well in London, assuming he makes the team. Im giving it our best marathon performance since Shorter and Moore, with Hall snagging a medal and Ritz coming home no worse than 6th.
"3,000- 7:37
5,000- 13:07-10'
-though i love your unabashed positivity, i am going to have to stringly disagree with these two. he just doesn't have this kind of speed.
You guys have no clue. Ritz is not going to run a lot of 3k's and 5k's in the future. He'll specialize the half and the marathon, with an occasional 10km thrown in the mix.
Yes he'll run 2:07-2:08 next year.
You realize he has run7:39.03PR13:16.61PRso you are basically saying he has maxed out his under 5k potential. I think that might be a bit pessmistic. Of course he gets injured more than Adam Goucher which I didn't think was possible.....
ngong hills wrote:
"3,000- 7:37
5,000- 13:07-10'
-though i love your unabashed positivity, i am going to have to stringly disagree with these two. he just doesn't have this kind of speed.
Seems like he has the potential to medal but what is the likelyhood that he actually will? Given the fact that some of the best in the world, and the best of all-time, have not earned a medal in the marathon saying he has the potential is more realistic.
I agree with the 2:08 though. If he could run 2:06 you may say he was a lock for a medal but we just have to ask Ryan Hall how having that on your running resume doesn't guarentee a medal.
seems like many are jumping off the Hall bandwagon and onto
the Ritz cracker truck. Let's hope for many months of injury free training and racing for both of them. It would be nice to have 2 Americans in the medal hunt at future Olympic games.
ngong hills wrote:
"3,000- 7:37
5,000- 13:07-10'
-though i love your unabashed positivity, i am going to have to stringly disagree with these two. he just doesn't have this kind of speed.
He has run 8:11... Thats worth about a 7:35 at worst.
"so you are basically saying he has maxed out his under 5k potential"
-in my opinion, yes. as aforementioned, i wouldnt look for him in many future 3k's either. really not sure what an 8.11 is worth? 7.38-9ish? anyone have some kind of table conversion?
Championship marathons are ridiculously difficult to predict, as evidenced by last Sunday. How many of those World Class marathoners actually fathomed a 2:06? Probably only 1.
I see no reason why Ritz won't run 2:07. Unfortunately, it will almost certainly be in London or Chicago, where a 2:07 will give him a 5th-7th place finish.
He certainly could medal in London. But I think the paradigm has now shifted and he will have to be prepared to run his PR (we'll say 2:07) in the Olympics.
ttc- correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you the poster that questioned Ritz's definition of marathon pace when he was running in that video at 4:55-5:00 pace last year? If so, I'm glad you've finally come around.
Ritz has a tremendous future in the marathon. He could medal in the WC/Olympics, but that's not as big of a deal to me as winning a major marathon. While it's probably a stretch to say that he could win the London Marathon, I truly believe he could win NY or Boston on the right day. How incredible would that be for an American born to finally recapture a win there?
I think he could run a 2:07 in the very near future on a course like Chicago or Rotterdam. Beyond that, it's hard to say and depends primarily on how healthy he can stay. It seems like Ritz was running relatively low mileage for his 1st marathon (I think peaking around 100) but now he's been running 120+. He has a very bright future ahead of him.
Just because he did OK in the marathon everyone is like all over him. RYAN HALL is better, will beat him, and have a better career. simple
It looks like ttc is finally starting to get it.
Turns out it is not an eithor or situation; you can like Ritz and Hall.
He's already run his best.