here's a performance estimate based on temperature (runworks running calculator,
http://www.runworks.com/calculator.html
). probably not the most accurate thing ever but it gives a pretty good range. all i know is i've been training based on heart rate this summer, and when we had a "cold front" roll through (from 100 or so down to low 80's) I dropped 40 seconds / mile off my training pace, at the same heart rate. training in the heat sucks, but it sure does feel good when the temperatures finally drop.
60F/16C or below 3:07.9 3:07.9 5:02.5
65F/18C 3:09.1 3:09.1 5:04.4
70F/21C 3:10.5 3:10.5 5:06.5
75F/24C 3:11.9 3:11.9 5:08.9
80F/27C 3:13.5 3:13.5 5:11.4
85F/29C 3:15.2 3:15.2 5:14.1
90F/32C 3:17.0 3:17.0 5:17.0