Olympic Marathon Dark Horse

my darkhorse picks to medal in the mens marathon.

mens marathon my upset pick to medal is ren longyun of china.

womens marathon my upset pick to medal is galina bogomolova of russia.

Ryan Hall! a definite dark horse even if i don't like his god rambling.

My picks:

G:Robert Cheriyuot (sp)

S:Martin Lel

B:Ryan Hall

tsgaye kebede of ethiopia

scoutmaster wrote:

Ryan Hall! a definite dark horse even if i don't like his god rambling.

I hear he is not particularly fond of your ramblings either.

Yamauchi

Phelps - proving once and for all cross training works

You beat me to it, Doug. I think Ren Longyun in the men's race as well. He was really, really impressive in the Beijing Marathon last fall when he set the Chinese NR.

I think Mara Y. will be strong in the women's race.

Regarding the men's side, I'd have to say that Kebede is not a dark horse. Any guy who runs 2:06 at Paris is NOT a dark horse. That course is NOT as easy as it looks. I'd say that the dark horse(s) are the 2 Chinese guys who ran 2:08 at Beijing last year.

On the women's side, I think that Yurika Nakamura will surprise. She could have run about 2.5 to 3 minutes faster at Nagoya had the pace gone out faster.

Jason

Frank Shorter

There's a dark horse in the marathon?

I hardly consider that fair.

This all begs the question: What makes someone a dark horse?

Kebede ran a great race in Paris. But, conditions were perfect, and the next seven runners all had PBs. Kebede is also very young. The Olympics will only be his third marathon. I would call him a dark horse for gold, but maybe not so for a silver or bronze.

Maybe it is easier to say who is not a dark horse. My not a dark horse list would be:

Men:

All three kenyans

Goumri

Gharib

Ramaala

Ryan Hall (maybe for gold, but not a dark horse to medal)

Rothlin (same as Hall)

Shami (ran well in Osaka)

dos Santos (winning NY has to count for something)

Merga Deriba (only ran 2 marathons, both 2:06)

Kebede

Women:

Kastor

Chungxi Zhou

All three Ethiopians

Paula Radcliffe (only the injury and past bad luck could possibly make her a dark horse, otherwise, a favorite for gold)

Mikintenko

Ndereba

Jeptoo

Bogomolova (perhaps the entire Russian team)

Prokopcuka

Thus, my dark horses:

Men: Brian Sell for bronze. You don't need to be fast to medal in a hot weather race, just determined. Brian Sell=determination.

Women: Lidia Simon gold. 5th in Osaka, 2:22 PB. runs a lot in Asia. If she breaks, other runners might let her go and never catch up.

Sell for Bronze is a good pick, but of course, whereas Deena made it with Paula 'blowing up', you'd need a handful of men to do so for Sell to sneak through.

Still, strange shit happens.

run for the sun wrote:

My not a dark horse list would be:

Men:

dos Santos (winning NY has to count for something)

Women:

Mikintenko

Bogomolova

Mikitenko is a very dark horse in that she is not running due to injury, so dark she could be navy. Bogomolova passed out from the heat during the Osaka WC marathon and had to get emergency attention. I think that lowers her to at least a dusky horse, maybe a dirty one.

I saw that dos Santos is on the start list for the 10000 m too.

run for the sun wrote:

Men:

All three kenyans

Goumri

Ramaala

I made the same comment on the latest Ryan Hall medal thread, but Cheruiyot ran badly in the heat at Chicago, Ramaala did likewise at the Osaka WC, and Goumri dropped out of the Osaka WC because he couldn't take the conditions. But, this doesn't make them dark horses, maybe just strawberry roans.

Shami is the one people haven't been mentioning enough

didn't know about Mikitenko. I have not heard anything about dos Santos intentions. He has not done well since NY, but once a champion, always a champion.

The heat issue is interesting. I do know that many of my non-dark horses are not proven heat runners, and some have had bad results in the heat. But then again, who really can run in the heat?

With the Kenyans, it may be a case of "when will dummy learn?" They keep training in Eldoret and just say that it will be the same conditions for everyone, assuming that acclimation training isn't going to make up for the difference in ability between the world and the Kenyans.

But then again, I think the definition of a dark horse for the marathon very well may be a runner who can run in the heat, but has not had much success internationally. That is what makes the 2008 marathon so exciting.

Hem Bunting

its gonna be a kenyan sweep.

1. Tergat

2. Wanjiru (pr)

3. Lel