this kid that ran 4:10 for the mile at NON is a junior and said in an interview that his goal is to break 4:00 in high school. i think that there is no doubt that he can break 4:00 sometime in college (or 3:43-44 for 1500), but what are his chances of doing it in high school?
Whats NON mean?
And I have no idea what his chances are. Can barely run one lap that fast! lol
Nike Outdoor Nationals
someone post and try to sound intelligent so i can sleep tonight
what do you want me to say, how is anyone supposed to know?
But I'll just throw it out there and say..............3:57.8
generally people ask questions and i give them answers to help them make their hypothesis
His chance is less than 1%. Of all the kids who went sub 4:10 as a junior, only 4 have done it. (correct me if I am wrong on assuming that all 4 sub 4 guys were sub 4:10 as a junior.)
I agree. 4:10 is fast no doubt, but that last 10 seconds is a pretty big leap both physically and mentally. Unless this dude is new to the sport or very under-trained, his chances of going sub 4 in high school are very slim.
sub4alldaylong wrote:
this kid that ran 4:10 for the mile at NON is a junior and said in an interview that his goal is to break 4:00 in high school. i think that there is no doubt that he can break 4:00 sometime in college (or 3:43-44 for 1500), but what are his chances of doing it in high school?
My guess is 4.17 after he decides to up his mileage a ton and misses most of the season with a stress fracture. There have been a ton of milers that ran 4:10 (and quite a few 4:06 guys that all failed) as juniors. None of them broke 4.00. Off of that alone I make him a 1/100.
Now if you tell me he picked up running this year, runs a sub 49,1.52, and is running 45 mpw I will up my estimate of his chances. Tell me he has been running since 5th grade, did 90mpw last year, is a 53,1:54 runner I am going to lower my estimate.
haha, YO wrote:
His chance is less than 1%. Of all the kids who went sub 4:10 as a junior, only 4 have done it. (correct me if I am wrong on assuming that all 4 sub 4 guys were sub 4:10 as a junior.)
i think Liquori may have only been like a 4:12 his junior year? might be wrong
I predict he will run between 3:58.7 and 4:17.
sub4alldaylong wrote:
this kid that ran 4:10 for the mile at NON is a junior and said in an interview that his goal is to break 4:00 in high school. i think that there is no doubt that he can break 4:00 sometime in college (or 3:43-44 for 1500), but what are his chances of doing it in high school?
1) what the hell kind of thread is this? why don't you just say his name? you obviously know exactly who it is, it's not just 'that' kid. it is meaningless to make predictions if we don't even know who we're talking about. how are we supposed to know if the kid has room for improvement or not if we don't even know who it is?
2) you come off as a pretty arrogant and annoying twerp in your first few posts. god forbid letsrun doesn't exist to serve all of your needs.
3) is "this kid" you? is that why you don't want to say his name?
give more info, and people will be able to give you "intelligent" responses. what would you say to me if i asked you, there's this girl in france than ran 10:17 for 2 miles as a junior, will she break 10 minutes her senior year? i really think she will in college but can she in hs? you know nothing about her, you don't even know her name, so how would you know how to respond?
Patrick McGregor
abacus wrote:
I predict he will run between 3:58.7 and 4:17.
Is the 3:58.7 using only 4 significant figures or 5? (i.e. 3:58.66 to 3:58.74 all 5 sigfigs and rounding to 3:58.7). If you're using only 4 significant figures, then I agree. But if you're using 5, then I disagree, because I predict 3:58.68. I would've predicted 3:58.69, but I didn't want the moderators to cite sexual harrassment and delete the post. How many significant figures is the 4:10 that you refer to??
Blah wrote:
My guess is 4.17 after he decides to up his mileage a ton and misses most of the season with a stress fracture. There have been a ton of milers that ran 4:10 (and quite a few 4:06 guys that all failed) as juniors. None of them broke 4.00. Off of that alone I make him a 1/100.
Now if you tell me he picked up running this year, runs a sub 49,1.52, and is running 45 mpw I will up my estimate of his chances. Tell me he has been running since 5th grade, did 90mpw last year, is a 53,1:54 runner I am going to lower my estimate.
I think he's talking about Patrick McGregor who ran 4:10 at NON this year as a junior. His PRs are 52/1:53/4:10mile/9:26. He ran 1:57/4:29 as a freshman and followed that up with 1:57 and 4:23 as a 10th grader. The 4:10 was a big PR, previously his best time was a 4:15.
I will predict he runs 4:08 next year. 4:00 is a very, very long shot.
sorry i'm not pat mcgregor. so he's probably going to train for XC with the intentions of being the most elite in the u.s. and then go into outdoor with the same intentions
can you really go "into" outdoors?
sub4alldaylong wrote:
sorry i'm not pat mcgregor. so he's probably going to train for XC with the intentions of being the most elite in the u.s. and then go into outdoor with the same intentions
Nothing wrong with that goal, but it's not likely to happen.
Also, Ryun ran sub-4 as a junior, so that leaves only 3 guys who have progressed to a sub-4 mile as seniors.
3:52.99 watch out WEBB!!!!!!!!!!! Thats what the OP wanted to hear right?
Considering only four high schoolers have broken 4 minutes, I'd say his chances in high school are slim to none. An 11 sec. drop to 3:59 is very difficult. Even in college, sub four is no guarantee. He has a realistic shot of breaking the barrier as a collegiate athlete, but I'd be willing to be that he has a better chance of not breaking 4 than breaking it. I may be coming off as pessimistic, but I'm being realistic. Nonetheless, I hope the guy can train hard but smart and run 3 fricken 50!
4:01.32
You're an asshole, kid.