i am predicting in another 25 years.
i am predicting in another 25 years.
jim ryun still has the american junior record for 2 miles with his 8:25 equivalent to about a 7:47 for 3k, with high school age varies a senior could be 16 years old and another could be 19 years old (in texas many parents have there kids repeat a grade so the kids body can mature to increase the kids chances of getting a scholarship usually this is done for football), so obviously age matters a lot at that stage, so yeah if a kid is a gifted runner and is 19 8:34 is quite possible. fernandez is 17 years old imagine what he could do to the high school records including his 8:34 2 mile if his parents held him back a couple of years as the parents of high school football players particularly in texas do.
more like how long until high schoolers are doping... too late
there's a reason that record held for 29 years, its special. If Fernandez didn't show up it may have held up for another 29
it will be a long, long time
I don't know why people want to believe that Fernandez is doping. Look at his results from 4 years of competition and the amount of training that he took to get those results. He was running National class times off of JV training as a sophomore. His 15:14 at State CC in 2005 was off of less than 35 MPW. Go back to his freshman year. He ran 4:34 (or maybe 4:32, don't quite remember) off of a month of training.
Was he doping from day 1?
CoachB, letsrun posters want to believe Fernandez is doping for the same reason they think he somehow has an ego - they are embittered, crotchety old men
Actually, the old men like me are excited, enthusiastic fans. I think the critics mainly are high schoolers who are envious and looking for some artificial explanation for why Fernandez' performance is so far above their own.
i think it is more likely college kids who can't understand why german is so much better than they are. they run for a big bad d1 program, no way in hell a hs kid could be better than me! but the fact is, the kid is amazing, and better than the majority of college runners.
Chris Derrick ran 8:48 or so when he had mono, so he might have had a shot were he healthy. I think running programs have improved since the publicity of the big 3 in 2001, and Rupp. I think we're getting over a long, long slump and will see more records shortly.
I give it 5 years.
Wait until a Kenyan exchange student or naturalized citizen has a shot. There have been 17 year-old kenyans run under 13 for 5k, they probably could hit 8:15ish. That will put it out to the stratosphere.
moonwatcher wrote:
there's a reason that record held for 29 years, its special. If Fernandez didn't show up it may have held up for another 29
And with all due respect to German's fantastic performance, if Jeff Nelson hadn't been elbowed onto the infield of Drake Stadium during the homestretch of his 8:36, he might still hold the record!
Chris Derrick would only ran 8:44 if he was healthy, yet alone break 8:40,
CoachB wrote:
I don't know why people want to believe that Fernandez is doping. Look at his results from 4 years of competition and the amount of training that he took to get those results. He was running National class times off of JV training as a sophomore. His 15:14 at State CC in 2005 was off of less than 35 MPW. Go back to his freshman year. He ran 4:34 (or maybe 4:32, don't quite remember) off of a month of training.
Was he doping from day 1?
He's a talented kid. I've watched him running out here for the last two years. People should be glad were in the middle of a Golden Age of HS running which kicked off in about 1995 and gained full steam in 2000. The idiocy is aggravating. Was Lindgren doping? What could he have run on a synthetic track? He ran 8:40 indoors 44 years ago. Webb is super talented. Ritz, super talented. Hall super talented. Now we have Fernandez, super talented. I think Finnerty should have saved himself for the mile. If he does bust a sub-four the next few weeks will everyone say he's doping?
gw wrote:
Wait until a Kenyan exchange student or naturalized citizen has a shot. There have been 17 year-old kenyans run under 13 for 5k, they probably could hit 8:15ish. That will put it out to the stratosphere.
Yeah, but most Kenyan "17 year olds" are far older with gullible Westerners taking a verbal answer as the truth for their birth-dates, like Kirui claiming to be 17 running in the low 13's and faster and it turned out that not only was he about 30, his performances began to decline like he'd hit his 30's. Give it a rest.
Jeff Nelson historian wrote:
And with all due respect to German's fantastic performance, if Jeff Nelson hadn't been elbowed onto the infield of Drake Stadium during the homestretch of his 8:36, he might still hold the record!
That's a good point. I almost forgot about that. I was there when Nelson ran that race and he actually got elbowed and pushed around several times during the race before getting plowed in the final straight.
The flip side is that German wasn't chasing anyone but the clock, so I have to give him his due
It wouldn't surprise me to see it bettered in the next decade. If he had run with a rabbit I think he would have likely broken 8:30, which is a record that could have held for 29 years.
It seems like any time a guy runs a time most people can't imagine everyone says he's doping. He's very talented. You are not. Get over it.
stop being jealous wrote:Yeah, but most Kenyan "17 year olds" are far older with gullible Westerners taking a verbal answer as the truth for their birth-dates, like Kirui claiming to be 17 running in the low 13's and faster and it turned out that not only was he about 30, his performances began to decline like he'd hit his 30's. Give it a rest.
What could a guy that runs around 8:05-8:10 at around 20-22 run at the age of 17? If Kenya has the best seniors, it's going to have the best juniors as well.
The youth world record at 3k is Abraham Cherkos' 7:32. Maybe he wasn't really 17, but there are no doubt Africans who could run under 7:40 at 17 if they can run under 7:30 a few years later.