Would the best move be to sit on Felnagle's shoulder and save the effort for a kick in the last 100m? Last year she made the move with about 200m remaining.
Would the best move be to sit on Felnagle's shoulder and save the effort for a kick in the last 100m? Last year she made the move with about 200m remaining.
Sounds easy, if you can handle 4:08 pace.
Will she take it out at 4:08 pace? Does she like to lead races?
Look who she will have to beat -- I do not think that she is the favorite, as Sally Kipyego is a pretty good runner (doubling 1500/5000 rather than 5000/10,000). That does not mean I do not think that she can win, but it will not be a slam dunk by any means.
Unless there is something I don't know, Sally has absolutely no shot in the 1500.
This field is stacked. Should be among the most exciting races in the NCAA meet.
If you've never seen Sally K. race I can see how you might think she has no shot in the 1500. But Sally's got wheels, she can change gears at the drop of a hat and she's not afraid to lead from the front. She ran 4:11 at Regionals and won by 5+ seconds...not really going hard until after the 800. Not saying Sally will win but she definitely has a shot.
Now doing a 1500/5000 double might be rougher than she is imagining. At this level this double is very tough...much harder than a 5/10 double, in my estimation.
You're forgetting Hannah England who has not lost to Ms. Felnagle yet
Hannah is actually the one to beat
I, too, believe that England is the favorite but check out this field:
Brie Felnagle (NC) - '07 NCAA Outdoor 1500 Champ
Hannah England (FLST) - '08 NCAA Indoor Mile Champ
Susan Kuijken (FLST) - '08 NCAA Indoor 3000 Champ (beating Felnagle)
Nicole Edwards (MICH) - '08 NCAA Indoor Mile Runner-up (beat by England by .44)
Sally Kipyego (TTU) - 6 time NCAA Champion from 3K to 10K. Only lost once in an NCAA Championship meet (lost 5K to Sikes of WF in '07 outdoor)
Sarah Bowman (Tenn) - 3rd in '08 NCAA Indoor Champs (beat by England by .70)
Dacia Barr (Ark) - 4th in '08 NCAA Indoor Champs
I think the two Washington girls, Turner and Follet could make a run. They look very fast right now. I think it's going to be very good racing.
I see this thread finally took off. It will be a good race. I predict that Felnagle will let somebody lead and kick at around 300m-200m remaining. Maybe the Washington girls can take it if they are still close to Felnagle at the end. If I remember, the two Washington champions in 2006 would save the big move for the homestretch.
If Felnagle let's the race come down to a kick, she won't win. She has the best time in the field (4:08) and she ran that solo. She'd be stupid to let it be won in 4:12-4:13.
If the race sits and kicks...Florida State is going 1-2. But I don't think that is the way the race will run. Kipyego is the wild card here. She's strong, fast and likes to stretch races out. When it comes down to the kick, there won't be an explosive final 200m. I think it'll be a gradual pullaway by England. The Washington girls do have wheels and are extremely well-coached but I don't think they'll be able to hang with race horses above, especially off a fast pace.
Right. It won't be an explosive kick by Felnagle. But I don't think she'll try to lead from gun to finish. I see it being a decent pace even if she's not leading. Felnagle will get into a good position with 400m to go and she'll start a controlled kick with 200m-300m to go. I think the challenge will come in the homestretch if there isn't enough separation and it may be by England or Washington.
I would be trying to follow Brie for 3 laps so I could look at that luscious behind as long as I could before I went FTW.
Sally is good enough that I do not think that she will have to work that hard to qualify in her heats. Do not expect to have Sally wait until 200-300 (though the doubling is a wild card here). I would guess that the winner will have to finish in as fast as 2:08, although if it goes out fast it might be a slower finish.