yeah, if you're male, don't get your hopes up for a full ride no matter how fast you are. now, if you're really fast and willing to go to a not so great school, the story may be different. if you're really in need of the money, by all means go that route - it's not a bad decision (probably a good one) to parlay your high school running into a free college education.
however, if your aim is to be a good runner, too, you're going to want to reach some balance between education, money, and running.
at any rate, you could probably find programs willing to give out a full ride to someone with a 9:15-9:20 3200 or thereabouts, especially at the d2 level. as you get quicker and quicker you'll find more and better programs willing to do so. at the end of the day, however, there aren't going to be many places that a runner interested in maximizing their potential, or as close to that as possible, will actually want to go until the times start getting below 9:00.
this stuff isn't exactly hard science but that's my experience (probably somewhat dated now but i've adjusted a little for the times). get enough opinions and you'll find a range. the best advice, of course, is to run as fast as possible and win races. i'm not necessarily sure using "scholarship times" for goals is the best idea.