how soon before all wr stop progressing?

whenever all the drugs stop getting better is when all wr stop getting better

no

100-no better than 9.28

200-no better than 18.8

400-no better than 41.9

800-no better than 1:38

1500-no better than 3:18

mile-no better than 3:32

5000-no better than 12:16

10,000-no better than 25:54

1/2 Mar.-no better than 56:38

Mar.- not better than 2:00:14

those are my predictions

Some women's events will not progress. FloJo will be on the record books for all eternity.

no, its an asyptotic exponential decy, so it will aproach some given time but will never hit it....eventually timing will not differentiate between two, so it will appear that they have stopped progressing, but if you had infinite resolution on timing devices, the WR would always continue to progress

huh?

uh_no wrote:

no, its an asyptotic exponential decy, so it will aproach some given time but will never hit it....eventually timing will not differentiate between two, so it will appear that they have stopped progressing, but if you had infinite resolution on timing devices, the WR would always continue to progress

[quote]just do it ! wrote:

huh?[quote]uh_no wrote:

Say the limit on the mile is 3:40.0. That means the world record would go 3:42, 3:41, 3:40.9, 3:40.6, 3:40.4 3:40.2 3:40.12, 3:40.08, etc, getting closer and closer to 3:40.0 but never passing it. Eventually, the two fastest times would be the same down to the hundreth of a second, so in order to differentiate between the two, you would have to go down to the thousandth of a second.

oh.. thanks for explaining it to me

you said it like 100x better than I could have

thnx

somewhatfast wrote:

[quote]just do it ! wrote:

huh?[quote]uh_no wrote:

Say the limit on the mile is 3:40.0. That means the world record would go 3:42, 3:41, 3:40.9, 3:40.6, 3:40.4 3:40.2 3:40.12, 3:40.08, etc, getting closer and closer to 3:40.0 but never passing it. Eventually, the two fastest times would be the same down to the hundreth of a second, so in order to differentiate between the two, you would have to go down to the thousandth of a second.

yes, and if it came down to that, you're telling me throwing yourself at the line wouldn't make a difference?

I think progression will never stop, and it will always move every 5-10 years in a meaningful progression. I don't really think there is a set limit, as training, shoe/track technology, even heredity will all be improved. That said, once we remove drugs from the equation (or allow them) there will be a noticeable decline in performance, followed by a resurgance.

Every 10 years or so you will find someone who will be able to run half a second faster in mid-distance. We are no where close to limits.

1000 years from now, evolved humans (think Alan Webb bred with Pamela Jelimo for 50 generations) will be running a minute faster than we are now.

i dont think we will evolve to be better runners but worse runners, thousands of years ago we ran to get food, now we have mcdonalds a block away and we drive. Obesity is on the incline, we will gradually get slower in a few hundred years

1000 years from now, evolved humans (think Alan Webb bred with Pamela Jelimo for 50 generations) will be running a minute faster than we are now.[/quote]

I'm thinking about Pamela Jelimo and Alan Webb bred for 50 generations. Sort of ties in with the Black women white men thread. They would have some mean offspring.

Every 10 years or so you will find someone who will be able to run half a second faster in mid-distance.

so eventually all races will be run in negative time? if we keep knocing time off eventually you get to zero....so therefore there are no limits on the WR and it will keep going down on a linear model forever.....yeah that makes sense

and you're telling me when the current world records were set there was no lunge for the line? lunging for the line has nothing to do with it

jerry seinfeild wrote:

i dont think we will evolve to be better runners but worse runners, thousands of years ago we ran to get food, now we have mcdonalds a block away and we drive. Obesity is on the incline, we will gradually get slower in a few hundred years

at the rate of resource depletion, I assure you the coming bottleneck will thin the herd markedly-

evolution will continue its course and those fitted for survival will survive.

Obesity is about to become an endangered species. I can't believe I get to see the day when Fat people can't afford to be fat anymore. What joy I feel at that statement.

uh_no wrote:

Every 10 years or so you will find someone who will be able to run half a second faster in mid-distance.

so eventually all races will be run in negative time? if we keep knocing time off eventually you get to zero....so therefore there are no limits on the WR and it will keep going down on a linear model forever.....yeah that makes sense

and you're telling me when the current world records were set there was no lunge for the line? lunging for the line has nothing to do with it

in terms of incremental improvement, we will always be getting faster. As a percentage of the total time. Taking 1 second off the mile will mean more when 8 foot tall humanoids with a Vo2Max of 120 do it at 2:30 per mile than when a Kenyan/Alan Webb descendant do it at 3:30.

you understand what I mean.

It's already happening with horses. Many records are 20 years old or older. Secretariat still owns the 1.5 mile he set in 1973. The 2 mile was set in 1964 - with a time of 3 minute 19 sec.

Horse racing in the US started a little over 100 years ago, and therefore took about 75 years (with breeding) to stop progressing.

Maybe a biologist could answer whether selective breeding causes the progression to stop quicker or slower. One one hand, breeding should cause better and better horses to be produced. But on the other hand, it leaves less room for variations that would cause a genetic freak who is so much superior to the others.

Based upon horses I would think some sort of estimate is possible for when humans come infinitesimally close to their peak times.

I guess an important factor will also be interest in the event. If nobody pays for distance runners to win races, the competition will drop off and fewer people will take time out of their lives to train specifically for running.

Why in the hell would Jelimo waste her time on a slower runner like webb?? Now throw in ElG or Lagat...Webb would be a regression in terms of genetic advancement if paired with Jelimo.

wr will eventually stop progressing... humans are heading towards intelligence evolution, not physical evolution... we will eventually stop exercising and rely on our intelligence to get us fit i.e. pills, etc.

my prediction is that wr's will stop progressing in a few 30 years at the most.