Ticktock wrote:
I've wondered this before, too. I do about 75-80 mpw, with a 15 mile long run that sometimes averages 6:20's no problem.
I'm guessing that without specific marathon training right now I could go out and run around 2:40 pretty easily.
I don't think so. Maybe sub 2:50 (which is around 6:20-25/mile), but not easily. With your long runs at 15 miles tops, you would be hurting badly at 23 miles. Just go out and do one, then come back and report.
I was one of those "if I just go out and run one, I would easily run xx:xx" too. Well, I did go out and had a really bad bad day out there. As a sub 29 min. 10000m runner, I said I would break 2:25 without specific marathon training at the age of 22. I "ran" 2:59, walking the last 5 miles and twice fainting from hypoglycemia on a cold day. It took me 4 years to attempt another one- with specific training and I bettered my PR by almost 40 minutes. You heard it before, but marathon REALLY starts after mile 20-22. 15miles is not a long run and would not teach or prepare your body for the processes that start in the last 6 miles of the marathon. (BTW I ran much more than you with longer runs at the time of my 'debut')
Of course, ther are talented runners who can run respectable marathon times on non-specific training, but they are exceptions. BTW, for me, respectable time for a good runner starts at 2:30 and better. For those really untalented, I would say around 2:48. That requires some specific training and preparation of energetic systems.