London Marathon Odds

Thanks for the numbers of which I do not know the meaning.

It implies a balance book with a profit to the bookie of 11%.

A $1 bet on Lel will return $5, for a profit of $4, ie 4:1.

those are actually decimal odds converted from fractional ( for benefit of scurry-off-eurotrash who don't understand the "queen's english" )

as stake is returned, you take 1 unit of the quote & convert to fractional

in the "queen's parlance" :

Martin Lel 4.00

Sammy Wanjiru 4.33

Felix Limo 7.50

Adderahim Goumri 9.00

become respectively :

3/1

10/3

13/2

8/1

Thanks eldrick, but if those are the decimal odds then the new book reflects a 26.7 percent implied profit to the bookie, which seems WAY to high to me, especially in a gambling mad island like GB.

Sports books in the US only get 1/11 - or about 9 percent profit.

i can't explain that other than "no odds listed for field" ?

i don't bet on sports ( too emotional - oil is better ! ), but these are normal sites i use for where "smart" money is going :

http://www.stanjames.com/betting/?gi=6

&

http://site.sports.betfair.com/widgets/layouts/marketView.jsp?

if last link doesn't work, go to betfair & look for athletics - guys there will act as bookies to accommodate you, or vice-versa !

that's your problem.

ventolin wrote:

i can't explain that other than "no odds listed for field" ?

http://www.stanjames.com/betting/?gi=6

&

That's a little bit more like it. Those decimal odds now reflect an implied fractional book that looks like this.

If odds were given for "the field" it would alter (raise) the return on the individual bets.

That should read 51:1 for Sokolov not Abyu.

Hall was at 18:1 on Monday.

You can get as good as 14:1 on Hall right now.

there are also match bets Lel vs Wanjiru which looks like even money now less the bookies vig of ~17%. so 5/6 each side.

That's a wonderful website. Not only does it give the inside market across all bookmakers, it provides a great tutorial that allows you to convert quotes in three expressions: fractional odds, decimal odds, and moneyline.

It rules......bookmark it now before they delete the post.

Hall is 14 on one site and 7 on another. So theoretically you could try to get hit at 7 and then lift 14. Even with 17-20% this is free $. Sounds great in practice but no idea who takes the other side i.e. do you have to wait for the other side to come along.

Luke Kibet is better - 12 vs 28.

Off the Grid wrote:

Hall is 14 on one site and 7 on another. So theoretically you could try to get hit at 7 and then lift 14. Even with 17-20% this is free $. Sounds great in practice but no idea who takes the other side i.e. do you have to wait for the other side to come along.

Luke Kibet is better - 12 vs 28.

There is no theoretical arbitrage on this bet for two reasons. 1) You cannot be both the buyer and the seller of a bet 2) You aren't guaranteed that your bets will be the winner.

On the other hand, if you are a bookie who has already posted a book, you can lay off wagers to other books to cover an "overpriced" line, but it may or may not even be needed or even desired.

I know nothing about bookmaking, so I will take your word for it.I haven't really looked at it cuz the maximums are 200 pounds.

So what you are saying is, you can only go long, you can't go short i.e. "I'll sell you Hall @ 7:1" unless you are a bookie? That sucks.

I would think bookies would want to run a matched book e.g. "Hall 7:1 - 10:1" for 500 sterling a side and cover delta over a certain size with other bookies. Otherwise, especially with large late bets, their gamma could be huge.

Again, I know nothing - they must compensate for this risk w/ odds adjustment based on volume.

So the better question is what is the best value?

Can someone explain the top 3 betting?

not a betting man wrote:

So the better question is what is the best value?

Can someone explain the top 3 betting?

yep, depending who you bet with they'll either offer 1/4 odds for top 3 or 1/5 the odds. Obviously the former is better value. In most cases it's very difficult here to have 'just' a place bet. You would have to bet each way, which is effectively 2 bets. for example, if you bet £5 each way on Ryan Hall at 18/1 (just guessing there, havent looked), your total stake is £10. If he won, you would return on both bets, getting £90 for the win and your £5 stake back, and then £22.50 (that's using 1/4 the odds of 18/1, which comes to 4.5/1, or 9/2) and your £5 place bet back too. If he came 2nd or 3rd, you'd obviously just get the £22.50 and £5 back, still a nice profit. Obviously if you're betting each way, there's no real value in anything under 4/1 or 5/1 (depending on what they pay for a place).

Hope that makes some sense!?!

try this site :

http://www.betdaq.com/UI/Default.aspx

as an example go to masters betting on menu ( can't provide direct link )

you can see betting in running & can either "back" bets ( acting as "punter" ) or you can "lay" ( acting as the "bookie" )

as an example,at this instant, someone "layed" a bet on lefty for £485 ( ~ $960 ) at 5.1

tha means if lefty wins on sunday, then that guy will have to pay out

~ 5.1 * 960 = $4896

he can off course "hedge" this later today/tomorrow, if lefty messes up & say drifts to 10/1

then he may actually "back" lefty with ~$490 , at 10/1, so he woud equalise any potential loss from "laying" lefty before

of course, if he's drifted out to 10/1, he's not likely to win so your overall profit is

960 ( from laying ) - 490 ( from backing later ) =

$480

this type of betting is what most serious gamblers in europe do ( unfortunately not to my tastes as sports are too emotional for me ) & it's a liquid market for such glamour events ( currently ~ $9.3million bet on this event so far on this ecxchange )