Let`s talk about Athens Mathon 2004

The toughest, most conditioned hill runner will win the race. Do not be surprised if it is not an African, but an Italian or Spaniard or from a European country.

They are going to be two awesome races, really humbling emotions from everyone running or watching, for many decades afterwards.

You think that the Africans are not so great at hills?

Athens is one of the hardest courses in the world. When we (Italians) won the World Marathon Cup 1995 on that course, the winner of the race was Douglas Wakhiiuri, running 2:12, ahead japanese Sunada (2:13.18) currently record holder of 100 km, and italian Davide Milesi (2:13.22). I remember that the day before, during the women race, all runners were very afraid about the gradient between 21 and 32 km, continuous and sometime very hard. So, the italian Ornella Ferrara (that in Goteborg, 4 months later, won bronze medal in World Championships) went alone till 30 km, with a max. gap of 1:43, also if her half was not very fast (for other runners, very slow). After the top (is at 32 km), the last 10 km are downhill, and Anuta Catuna from Romania was terrible, running the last 2200m in the 4th time (considering also the man race !).

The following day, after seeing the women race, a small group, with Wakhiiuri, italian Milesi, Gozzano and Crosio, japanese Sunada and 3 ethiopians, was able running in a normal way, with a good split at HM. Wakhiiuri made the difference climbing, when ethiopians were not able to follow.

The course is very tough, especially if weather is very hot and humid. During World Cup (was in April) temperature was good (from 10 to 13°), and the only problem was the course, but during OG I think that both the problems can be very important.

Of course, selecting a team looking at times made in flat marathons is a mistake, because athletes for Athens need particular attitudes in climbing, and high speed is not strictly necessary.

I also think that is very difficult for an African to prepare well Athens, because is not only a problem of talent, but of scientific training. In any case, there are Africans having european coaches that can be very well prepared (like Tergat) if the Kenyan Federation will permit to personal coaches to follow their preparation without too many interferences.

About women, the main rival for Paula Radcliffe coul be Naoko Takahashi, because is very strong like muscles, and Athens needs strenght for running well. Catherine Ndereba can be good, but she seems to light for this type of marathon.

About women, the main rival for Paula Radcliffe coul be Naoko Takahashi, because is very strong like muscles, and Athens needs strenght for running well. Catherine Ndereba can be good, but she seems to light for this type of marathon.

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Takahashi did well in Sidney on a course with hills, but I really don't see any evidence of her 1)being the same runner she was three years ago, and 2)despite the Athens course being a lot hillier than London/Chicago, I can't see Takahashi being in the same ball park as Paula (sorry, Jason). Paula runs 5 full minutes slower than her PR due to hills & heat, and that STILL puts her under the Olympic record for the marathon. Paula, if she's in the best shape of her life, can essentially bomb and still be head and shoulders ahead of most of the others--whereas the most f the others will literally need a PR to be close to Paula even if she has a bad day. One thing I did say on here about a year ago was, look out for someone UNKNOWN or overlooked previous to the race that has track PR's close to Paula, but who has yet to pop a fast marathon. Can Paula be beat? Yes--she's human. WILL she be beat? I don't think so.

Men's side...me thinks Khalid will kill himself to win, but me also thinks he's cooked--stick a fork in him. As opposed to Paula, he's NOT head and shoulders above anyone--he won't even be the fastest man in the field, plus he's a drag racer---with the exception of San Blas 1/2 marathon, all his longer races have been pancake courses. Tergat has the goods, and with a year to go he's got as good a chance as any....BUT with a single runner--who ISN'T known for his kick--almost beating him at Berlin in 2:04, I think he'll have a lot more company in Athens with 3 or 4 miles to go. he can be outkicked. My pick for the win? Abera, OR an unknown. I'm not aware of the timetable, but I wonder if Haile can double in the 10K and marathon.

This is my story and I'm sticking to it...unless Joe Lemay comes back, runs 2:07 at the trials, and blows 'em all away in Athens with a 2:03.

Renato and Skylon, I agree Paul and Paula are both determined to win an Olympic Gold.

Exactly. Experience will be the key factor. If I was an elite marathoner, I would either 1) run some very similar hilly races in preparation (though difficult due to risk of injury), and 2) perhaps relocate and train on such a difficult course, perhaps even a warmer climate.

Kenyans are excellent on hills, but I still see a tougher runner with more mass and strength winning. I do not believe Paula Radcliffe will 1) be healthy and 2) run the marathon. She may be afraid of the challenge. Khannouchi can do very well. Do not underestimate the difficulty of San Blas. It may be the closest high quality race to Athens. If he stays healthy, he will be a favorite. I hope Takahashi comes to form.

PAUL TERGAT AND PAULA RADCLIFFE both desperately need those Olympic Gold medals, just like Hicham El Gerrouj in the 1500, it's the only thing that really matters to them from now until the end of their careers you've got to consider the emotional side of running as well as the statistics.

You know my opinion on this topic.

The Japanese women team will be Mizuki Noguchi (already has her spot on the team due to Silver at Worlds), Naoko Takahashi, and Masako Chiba.

Takahashi and Chiba are both coach by the greatest marathon coach in the world, Yoshio Koide. (He was also coach of 1997 World Champion Hiromi Suzuki and 1992/96 Oly Medallist Yuko Arimori).

The Japanese are the greatest preparers in the the sport. Nberba and Radcliffe are very tough but I think that the Japanese women's team, especially Q-chan, will rise to the occasion through very tough training and thorough analysis of the course.