Strength vs. Speed

You aren't that confident, otherwise you wouldn't be asking. ;-)

Running solo in practice, 1 x 800 in 1:59

1200m time trial at your goal pace.

3 x 800m at goal pace, with 2-3 min recovery preferably running the first 2 on pace and the 3rd being the fastest or the same pace as the others. Averaging doesn't count, especially if you burn the first one then die like a big dog on the last one.

It seems unlikely to be that you have the ability to run sub 4 in the 1500. Your speed is probably sufficient if you were more of a distance runner, but the 28:09 indicates that is not the case. I wouldn't expect to do much better than your current 4:06 PR.

So what could I do between now and March to get in shape to run sub 4?

Plenty of distance. You are aerobically weak or your 8k would be closer to 27, if not 26.

Just crank up the mileage. It's your only chance.

Work on the things which would improve your 3K / 5K - where you will be ready to run 8:30 for the 3k and sub 15:00 for the 5k. Your 26 second 200 speed isn't impressive enough to warrant a fast 1500 when combined with your 8K. If you were running 24 ish ... or maybe 52 - 53 for 400m, but ... your endurance really falls off.

If you are a believer in the time predictors and calculators, which I am - my PRs all fall in line with McMillan, then you'd be needing to run low or below 25 for 8k, with good 200 speed - in the neighborhood of :24 - :25. A sub 1:57 800 race would give me a warm fuzzy about your chances to break 4:00. Often, guys with good endurance, but with only moderate leg speed are able to double their 800m race pace for a good indication of their 1500m time.

on the flip side of this ...

guys who are able to burn a fast 200, 400 or 800, but without much endurance - might be able to squeak in under 4:00 - but, they usually need to be 50/51 for the 400 and ~153-154 for the 800. It seems like HS guys sometimes fall into this category - not fast enough to be a good 400 runner, good 800 speed, but anemic aerobic horsepower - where they manage to squeak out a good mile/1500 time but their 3k/2mile times are relatively slow. this is very common with "interval trained" types.

So if I up my mileage from 20 miles a week right now to around 50-60, I should be able to run under 4 in a couple months from now?

I forgot, this cross country season was run after taking 4-5 months off last year from March - middle of July due to a hamstring injury. I was only able to run 4:19 last year due to trying to run through the injury.

It's worth a try. I've had startling results since bumping my mileage to a consistent 50-60 mpw (consistent being the key word). I've destroyed my old 5k pr and can't wait for the spring to see how this translates to my 1500 pr.

You need to run with a Club or get help. I ran a 2:34 1000m and a 51.8 400m last Saturday at 41 years old.