I think it's fair to say that Haile's marathon WR will eventually be lowered- if not by Geb himself then by Bekele or Ryan Hall or one of the other likely candidates. And while the future record may dip into the 2:03's, I do not think we will ever see sub 2:03. This opinion is based on the rate of progression of the record since Clayton, as well as the opinion of Ron Hill himself from Noakes' TLOR- that 2:03 is at the very outside limit of human possibility.
2:03 is only 3.3 seconds faster per mile. It will happen eventually. Conditions, pacing, and technology alone will probably account for that difference eventually.
I think it's silly to put arbitrary limits on "human possibility."
Of course 2:03 will be broken. That's all of 3.3 seconds per mile faster than what Geb ran. Possibly but not necessarily in the next 30 years but of course it will happen. The world record has dropped by 2.5 minutes in the past 22 years. It definitely has another 1.5 minutes left to go.
yeah so is the 4 minute mile
cmon man your really going to make a statement like this right after the last unbelievable marathon record was shattered by 30 seconds
2:03 is unreal and personally i doubt that theres anyone alive right now who has the ability but humans are evolving and people are getting faster...i dont think theres a true statement about whats outside the realm of human possibility
itll be a while but 2:03 and even 2:00 will EVENTUALLY be broken
ryan hall? his best 10k is only 2807, sure he ran a good debut marathon, but 4 minutes is huge at that level, to beat gebs record will require a minimum of sub 13 and nd sub 27 minute 5 and 10 k times, hall ran well, but remember he was only 7th, and one of the runners ahead of him (goumri) was a novice marathoner like hall was. i hope he can get down to 206, but hall wont ever beat 20426 unfortunately.
I think we all agree we will never live to see it. And sub 2:00? impossible. Heck, sub 2:02 is impossible. But then I read Noakes.
MarathonMind wrote:
I think we all agree we will never live to see it. And sub 2:00?
No we do not all agree on that.
For once I'm with Average_Joe. How'd you conclude you speak for what "we all agree", MM?
Five bucks says we see 2:02:59 or better by the end of September 2047.
Well then you have far more faith in human ability than I do. Meanwhile, I offer this: Bekele's 10,000 WR of 26:17 equals just over 63 seconds per lap. A marathon of 2:03 would need the equivalent of just under 70 sec/lap for over 4 times the distance. Geb averaged 70.78 per 400 yesterday.
Even 70 seconds flat would leave you short at 2:03:05.
I agree.Average_Joe wrote:
MarathonMind wrote:I think we all agree we will never live to see it. And sub 2:00?
No we do not all agree on that.
That we do NOT all agree with that. :-)
MarathonMind wrote:
Well then you have far more faith in human ability than I do.
After a record is broken many people have always said what you are saying now, "we are close to the limit of human ability," yet the records for all distances continue to go down. And they will continue to go down. I agree that the rate of progression will slow, but all records will continue to go down and eventually the Marathon WR will be under 2 hours. It may be 200 years, but it will happen. And 2:03 will likely be broken within 20 years.
MarathonMind wrote:
And while the future record may dip into the 2:03's, I do not think we will ever see sub 2:03. This opinion is based on the rate of progression of the record since Clayton, as well as the opinion of Ron Hill himself from Noakes' TLOR- that 2:03 is at the very outside limit of human possibility.
"The man who has made the mile record is W.G. George...His time was 4 minutes 12.75 seconds and the probability is that this record will never be beaten."- Harry Andrews, 1903
Sounds sort of silly in retrospect, doesn't it?
Samuel Wanjiru will most likely break 2:03 at some point in the near future, he might even have a shot at breaking 2:02.
I've brought this up before, but nobody listened. I think sub 2:00 is possible, and will happen much quicker if someone puts together a track marathon. Not on a 400m track, but on a special, custom 1 or 2 mile track. It doesn't have to be a permanent track. Cary Pinkowski could, with adequate funding, build a temporary 2 mile track through Grant Park (Chicago) for the elites to race on on a Saturday, and then let everyone else race on a Sunday. You'd only need two or three lanes, as the race would only be for the elites.
Track WRs are much faster than road race WRs. Don't you think Haile could run a couple seconds per mile faster if he were on a nice, bouncy track, which fatigues your legs less? I do. It would also be perfectly flat, in the shade, and sheltered from much of the wind. Not sure why nobody has done this yet. I'm betting it will be done in the future.
The Ethiopians and Kenyans are currently building a new land mass off the coast of Africa, with even higher mountains and valleys and thinner air. They state it will be up and ready for a third world civilization to live there and do nothing notable other than win the olys, wcs, and break wrs in the next 10 years.
We'll see sub 2:00 in the next 20-30 years. Lots of hard training plus a good 'medical' program..;)
Alan
Yes this has occurred to me as more importantly no SCPF (additional 42.2 meters) would be required on a standard 400 M track. But good luck running 105.5 laps anyway.
hmmmm wrote:
itll be a while but 2:03 and even 2:00 will EVENTUALLY be broken
Unless a giant asteroid hits the earth and wipes out 99% of life on the planet.
watchout Samuel wanjiru! he is made for the roads.
If anyone has ever seen the 1970 film The Games with Michael Crawford, Ryan O'Neill and Charles Aznavour then you will remember the attempt on the 2 hour marathon. The coach (Stanley Baker) of Harry Hayes (Crawford) wants him to go for the 2 hour marathon - so that his name will live forever. Hayes runs the 1st half in 59:13 and blows up in sight of the stadium and finishes a la Dorando and Jim Peters. The Yank (O'Neill) collapses on account of his drug abuse and the Australian sprints past the Czech (Aznavour)in the final straight. Weird film!