How many think the U.S. runners are going to use actual team tactics similar to the Africans in the final? Do you think this would be a good idea or should they all just "run their race". It seems to work, looking at the Pre 2-mile in the past two years, working together seemed to produce great results.
can't imagine any of the three giving up their own chances when there's a chance a countryman could profit. Sad but true. the stakes are too high - being the top american carries a lot of kudos (and $$$) and each will think they should be.
The kenyans and ethiopians usually have a clearly defined leader - not the case here.
No rabbits here. It will break open at 4k and the race will take off.
. . . . . . . . wrote:
The kenyans and ethiopians usually have a clearly defined leader - not the case here.
Plllleeeeaaaasssseeeee.
Lagat is the world champion at 1500 meters and the Olympic silver medalist with a great kick over the last lap. He easily defeated Tegancamp and Goucher at the US 5k championships just an hour after running tjhe 1500 meter semi's. If he is not the clear cut, well defined leader there never will be one.
What team tactics could the Americans use as such? Making the race fast doesnt suit Lagat and realistically Teg isnt going to medal. Maybe a planned surge at 3500 metres from Goucher would aid Lagat to break up the field slightly, but i'm sure if Lagat is near the front in a slow run race with 2 laps to go that he will win or at least medal.
Gouch looked like he was really straining yesterday. Teg looked smooth, but not Lagat-smooth. Order of finish will be Lagat, Teg, Gouch. I don't know if they can help each other or not.
People are forgetting a Bekele is entered in the race. Elder Bekele must have passed down advice to the younger brother. Especially on how to win in situations like these and mistakes not to make (like Kenenisa made against El G). Mark my words, the Ethiopians will work together and make this race fast so bottom-feeders like Lagat don't have a chance at a kick. Unlike the US runners, Ethiopians are not selfish and thus usually get medals (i.e.. like 2003 WC 10k).
out
bottom-feeders like Lagat
How is an Olympic silver medalist and World Champion a bottom feeder?
No, Bekele has already stated he was worried about the weather conditions. The pace will be like Helsinki, fast to open then slow down for a couple kilometers and then fast over the last 1000 or so. Having watched Lagat in both the 1500 and now in heats of the 5000, even if elder Bekele were in the race I would pick Lagat to win. I expect the winning time to be over 13:10.
SWEDES wrote:
...even if elder Bekele were in the race I would pick Lagat to win...
Wow, just wow.
I'm not sure what is wow, but how many times has K. Bekele outkicked a miler like Lagat? Let's see, gosh how did he do agaisnt El Guerrouj? I think in championship finals he was 0-2 and just 1 and 1 versus Kipchoge. So please enlighten me with why your are astounded?
Paul Osborn wrote:
bottom-feeders like LagatHow is an Olympic silver medalist and World Champion a bottom feeder?
I think Lagat is more of a cream-skimmer. He hangs around for a while and then scrapes that sweet stuff right off the top.
SWEDES wrote:
even if elder Bekele were in the race I would pick Lagat to win.
I completely agree. Bekele has never come back and won a 5000m after winning the 10,000m at a major championship. Lagat has also shown that he can outkick Bekele in a 5000m.
As for the team tactics discussion, I don't know what Teg and Goucher could do to help Lagat other than run two abreast in front and slow it down. The slower the pace, the better, for Lagat.
And dont forget, when Lagat ran 12:59 last year, he did so in outkicking Kenny B in England. So, even in a "fast" race, Lagat's still got speed at the end. (i wrote "fast" because I know KB can go much faster than 12:59, but that is still fast by almost everyone else's standards)
Lagat doesn't need Teg & Goucher when he's got Buster. Not that Mottram wants to help Lagat, but he's pretty much bound to do it. Mottram will stay near the front to make sure the pace stays honest & to make his long kick when the time comes (450? 600? 1000?). All Lagat needs to do is stay near him until Mottram starts his kick. It'll be great if Teg & Goucher are in the lead pack, too, but Lagat can't count on that. He can count on Mottram being there.
Besides, who better to draft off of than the Big Mazungo himself?
i love it when little poseurs choose names that derogate american athletes, and then laud the brilliance of foreign athletes, as if the poseur was an insider in the running culture of that country, when, in fact, he has never left his mommy's teet.
reminds me of when i went to the US v. england friendly a few years back in chicago, and was completely dumbfounded by the overwhelming number of british ex-patriots wearing owen, beckham, cole, etc. jerseys who recently populated a metropolitan area more known for its polish and estern euraopean immigrants. then i heard the little weasels speak in their chicago accents, and realized they were all just a bunch of poseurs who had been watching too much fox soccer channel, and were feigning some type of british connection, like a jock-sniff at the local high school.
letsrun at its best with the fair-weather ethiopian fan, the great poster "webb_sucks."
Wow, you really have people figured out, don't you?
Don't worry about crap like "team tactics". "Team Tactics" did not produce great results in the Pre 2 Mile. Racing hard did.
tactician wrote:
What team tactics could the Americans use as such? Making the race fast doesnt suit Lagat and realistically Teg isnt going to medal. Maybe a planned surge at 3500 metres from Goucher would aid Lagat to break up the field slightly, but i'm sure if Lagat is near the front in a slow run race with 2 laps to go that he will win or at least medal.
It's not to say that Lagat isn't a very good 5k runner in his own right, but the slower the pace is, the more it benefits Lagat. He's a great tactician and a great racer. If it comes down to the last 400 after 4600 in about 12:30, Lagat has the speed and the brains to position himself perfectly.
For the record, the pace at Helsinki was very, very slow.
The first kilometre was 2:54, followed by 2:45, 2:48, 2:39 to reach 4k in 11:06 (Marius Bakken leading). The last kilometre was in 2:26, largely on the strength of a 53-second last lap.
This to me, sounds like the best scenerio. Lagat should just ride Buster all the way to the last 150 meters and do his big smooth finish. Mottram wants the gold and will be willing to do the work towards the end to give him a chance. I think Teg can hang and be there with a lap to go too, probably 7-8th though.
Maybe even something close to what Athens was like? Not as fast though.
Can't wait!
tony