Wejo, how could you predict anyone other than Webb for the win?

Betting against him doesn't mean betting for someone else. You can bet on the field.

We simply cannot ignore the US and Webb's history in Championship events, with heats and tactics....wejo is basing the likely outcomes partially on history, which is very rational. In addition, there are obviously some questions about Webb's 2007 peaking strategy as we know.

We have no results within the last 3-4 weeks to go on. There are some cagy veterans in this field.

I put him at 50/50 myself.

You don't know much about championship racing at the highest level if you don't realize that times mean little at all there. Competitive record over the past few seasons is at least as relevant. People who nut in their shorts over Webb's lock on getting gold in Osaka are naive or delusional. It might happen, but he's still unproven in running rounds against savvy veteran racers. He's never been even in contention (4th or 5th) for a medal at the end of an international championship race. He may not throw down a stupid surge this time around, but he hasn't proven that he's mastered tactical racing in an international championship scenario.

Komen will win it.

800 dude: wejo did bet on somebody else. He bet on Monsoor.

goober: we do have results. he ran a time trial in 2:15 recently. He's not lying about that. if you put him at 50/50, then you would have to pick him for the win over anyone else. who else would you pick if you have one guy at 50/50?

the final is not a time trial: you make some very good points. I think the difference here though is that Webb has never been the favorite in a world championships or an olympics. i understand your point about championship racing, but how can times mean little or nothing?

Keep this stuff in mind when wejo and some of the so-called gurus offer their running/training expertise. Webb is not a darkhorse candidate. He is in fact the favorite, and the european gamblers see it Webb-Monsoor-Baala-Komen, which is about the way I see it.

After all the years of pulling for a US distance runner who can actually pull off a championship, how many NCAA coaches do you think are actually betting against Webb? I think you know the answer to that (although I think you can guess Warhust stands with his athletes). This is why in his recent USATF blog, Craig put the term internet coverage in quotes.

Every year I go to a couple of the winter coaching clinics, and I expect to see presentations from guys like Vigil and JJ Clark. Will I see anything from not just wejo but any of the letsrun gurus? You've got to be kidding, and what you see on letsrun today is part of the reason why. I guess if I was Alan, I might actually be releived that the letsrun "experts" were betting against me.

How? Coe in '80 (800), Scott in '84, Morceli in '92, El G in '96, Ryun in '68, etc.

First of all the pick was more Robert's than mine. I haven't made mine.

I pointed out to him even if Webb is not 50% to win (which I agree) he still is the favorite.

But it is just our picks. We often pick upsets (and many times quite correctly). He tried to give a fair analysis of the field which he did and then give his pick.

It's not like horse racing where you have to factor in the odds but I don't think anyone has to pick Webb by any means.

It is perfectly rational to say "Webb is the favorite" and then pick someone else.

Who knows maybe Rojo didn't want to put the letsrun.com jinx on Webb. It's not like the picks are exact science.

the predictions would be much closer to the truth if there was a $1 fee to vote

Webb is in great shape, but I just have a really hard time picking Webb for gold. I mean, a US athlete winning gold in the 1500 at the WCs? It just sounds wrong. Granted, this is a relatively weak year for the 1500, but as others have stated, Webb's impressive times this season aren't going to mean as much in Osaka when he's running against some savy veterens. I'd be quite excited if Webb won it all, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet on the field.

But who is better at gambling?

Chuck you are so full of it.

First of all, the prediction is just an opinion. And our opinions change (I wouldn't be surprised if Rojo picks Webb in the prediction contest)

We never said Webb was a darkhorse candidate. Our preview is full of praise of him and we say "He's the favorite."

I'm not sure what you mean by "betting against Webb" but I bet there are a lot of coaches out there who think it is not a sure thing he won't win.

Just because we said he's not going to win doesn't mean that we're not rooting for him.

And Masback has respect for us. Call him up and ask him.

I guess the job of "journalists" in your opinion is just to pick the favorite to win in every event?

Why would you need to listen to JJ Clark if you could just follow the masses no matter what he says?

Youth - World Best Performance

Performance Athlete DOB Nat Place Date

1:44.34 Belal Mansoor Ali 17 10 1988 BRN Conegliano Veneto 17 06 2005

interesting

800 dude wrote:

Betting against him doesn't mean betting for someone else. You can bet on the field.

The article specifically predicted Webb to finish second, and it named someone specific to beat him.

Webb is far from being a lock for the win. Webb is the best racer this year so far, but the race is up for grabs in my opinion, there are no rock stars like El G who are odds on for the win.

This is not Las Vegas, young girl.