Why does it matter how many seconds are between your first and fifth runners in XC? That seems to be a stat that is quoted all the time by coaches, but I wonder whether it correlates at all to XC success.
I have always thought there were two things that really mattered to team XC success:
1) Having one or two studs up front. Think about it, if you have a stud that will always win the race it is as if you are scoring 4 runners and everyone else is scoring 5. This is huge in the big invitation meets.
2) Having a 5th man who is really consistent.
In college, I was 5th man on my team and my roommate was 1st. When he had a bad race he might come in 3rd rather than 1st and cost the team 2 points. When I had a bad race I might come in 75th rather than 40th and cost us 35 points. The team was more at risk with my consistency than his.
But, I just never saw why the gap between his time and mine would matter at all.
A testable hypothesis if anyone has the time. Look at runner 1-5 gaps on the most recent NCAA championship meets and see how strong to correlation is to team score. I'm betting it will be weaker than people like to think.