Only one in 40,074 Americans over the age of 20 has ever run faster than 14:20 for 5,000 meters (5k). I would like all you running nerds to peer-review my work, below.
Here’s a few supporting facts and then the math:
The 5000m world record was 14:22.2 until 1948, when it was lowered to 14:17.6.
In the year 2006, I was able to identify 113 people that ran faster than 14:20 in the United States. I used NCAA Track & Field results as well as the results of some prestigious non-collegiate meets such as the AT&T USA Outdoor Championships. Let’s assume that I failed to find about 15% of the sub-14:20 5k performances. In that case, about 136 people that ran faster than 14:20 in the United States in 2006.
Using the number 136 as the guideline, let’s assume that:
About 120 new people accomplished this in each and every year since 1970 in the United States.
Only about 50 people did so in each year between 1950 and 1969 (after all, this period was before the running boom and just shortly after the world record was set at 14:17.6).
Using the above assumptions, we can say that approximately 5,440 people have ever run under 14:20 in the United States. Let’s assume that they’re all still alive.
There are 300 million people in the United States, but 82 million are under 20 years old and haven’t yet had a chance to compete in Track & Field as mature adults. So if we remove them, our total sample size is 218 million.
5,440 divided by 218 million is 0.0000250 or One in 40,074.