This from the australian coach of mottram and benita johnson, who seems to disagree with your "running within 2 minutes/mile of your predicted 5k pace"
We’re often asked how itis effective for Mottram to do his recovery runs with
Benita Johnson despite him being about to run almost two minutes faster than
her for 5000m. They feel that if he races 5000m at close to 2:30 min. per
kilometer and Benita closer to 3 minutes per kilometer, why should her recovery
runs be run a similarly slower pace? But it doesn’t actually work like that.
Running at 4 minutes per kilometer is just as comfortable for Benita as it is for
Craig. The key is that the pace is comfortable, and the pace is simply decided on
how the athletes feel. There is often a need to tell athletes to try to run slowly on
these runs, as it’s very difficult to run too slowly and quite easy to run too fast at a
speed that doesn’t really challenge aerobic fitness and certainly doesn’t allow
athletes to recover maximally between workouts. The key is to remember that
these runs are for recovery and that there are another 2 or 3 days in the week
where the focus is on building fitness.