58:35 half translates to a 2:02:53 for marathon!!

More like 2:03:25.7. About 26:21.34 for 10,000. The marathon is way overdue. It will be 2:03:42.2 within the next 4.7 years.

4.7 years? you mean 4-7 years?

There is the possibility that the conversion charts need updated for the 1/2 marathon. It's not contested as much as the Marathon or 10k. The way the 1/2 Marathon times have been dropping, in a few more years it could be 58:00. However the Marathon probably still won't be under 2:04. Time will tell, but I think the charts need analyzed.

michrunner wrote:

...the potential to break the 2:04:55 marathon record

Using potential & marathon in the same sentence is too much about playing the edges of possibility. In the same sentence they just about exist in parallel worlds. The marathon is a humbling distance.

Very true scott!

i like how it converts to the 3rd fastest 10k time ever.

-themack

Wyco Loco wrote:

There is the possibility that the conversion charts need updated for the 1/2 marathon. It's not contested as much as the Marathon or 10k. The way the 1/2 Marathon times have been dropping, in a few more years it could be 58:00. However the Marathon probably still won't be under 2:04. Time will tell, but I think the charts need analyzed.

I agree.

you cant just translate shit, conversions are a vague estimate, the marathon is a hard event (incase yo didnt know), its a f***load times harder than a half, the record will take a few attempts to beat if he goes for it, look how great GEB is and he was a minute out (even though he was pretty much solo cos the pacemakers were shit), GEB will get the record first - you heard it here first (and he will win Beijing!).

heck yeah haile is gonna get it first. i can see him dipping into the mid 2:04's. If he does i think that'll only hold up though until this dude wanjiro or whatever get a few marathons under his belt. That guy will totally go under 2:04 one day.

Mmmm....I wonder if 58:35 really is better than the current 10000m or Marathon WRs. I think the Half marathon has further to go, percentage wise, due to not being concentrated on quite as much as the 10000m and Marathon. Not being an Olympic / Major Games distance has stunted it's WR progression a little. Skujhttp://www.cvrr.ca/cvrr-tuesday-track-workouts.php

QUIET- genius at work wrote:

More like 2:03:25.7. About 26:21.34 for 10,000. The marathon is way overdue. It will be 2:03:42.2 within the next 4.7 years.

If Wanjiru and Bekele both start hammering this distance right after Beijing, we will see how soft the marathon record is. Tergat and Geb waited a few years too long.

scotth wrote:

The marathon is a humbling distance.

Yes, but far less humbling when you are at the 58:35 level. Based on those that have run in his ballpark for the half, his chances of success are extremely high.

themack wrote:

i like how it converts to the 3rd fastest 10k time ever.

-themack

Are you suggesting thats unreasonable? Cause if so its not unreasonable at all. THe guy holds the WJR in the 10k at 2641 from when he was 18 in 2005. And now hes dropped 41 seconds off the record he set in the same year he ran 2641. So its hardly unreasonable to suggest a 2621 from the guy no? Hopefully he and Bek will line it up.

bekele aint no marathoner...time will prove me right

The 10000 isn't really run too many times either. There's a lot more big time marathon races than big time, professional 10000m races.

There's still a few 10k track races that bring a lot of talent and someone like Bekele usually takes a run at it, but it's not that popular of a race.

fgjdfdj wrote:

bekele aint no marathoner...time will prove me right

I think you're wrong. He is short (economical) and has a more economical looking stride than Geb. Consider he's the fastest the world has ever seen at distances from 2000m to 12000m, and his ability to run well indoor, outdoor, and in cross country, and I think it's obvious he has a lot of potential (yes, I used the word) in the marathon. When you can run 4:13 pace for 6.2 miles, I would think you could run faster than 4:28 pace for 13.1. Not that a 58:00 half would guarentee a 2:04 full mary, but I think it helps.

^

Bekele has the indoor 2k record, but El G is king of the 2k.