Ritz Marathon Predictions

2:08

I'm curious how many Americans are running the NYC marathon. I know Meb and Ritz are, and it's kind of exciting because with those two in there, they'll be contending for top finishing spots. Too bad Sell and Abdi are not running it (is Abdi running it), because we could have a bada$$ American squad mixin things up in that race. I predict a top 5 finish for both Ritz and Meb.

Ritz: 2:09:35

Meb: 2:09:52

2:09:50, which for NYC is great. Anything under 2:09, and he'll be a medal contender for 2008.

2:09:47

DNF

2:09.24

No way he goes under 2:10. At best he's looking at 2:12-14. That's if he avoids the DNF.

i say he goes 2.11.46

The people above who take into account the difficulty of the New York course are right on the money. Although Ritz may well be capable of a 2.07/8 he will not run that at New York.

I hope he goes through the half in approx. 65 and holds on 4 a high 2.09/low 2.10 which I think would indicate he could possibly get under 2.08 at London, Rotterdam or some other fast course next Spring.

I think going through in low 64's would be disasterous.

maybe i am to optimistic, but i say 20758, the course record is 20743.

2:10:45 +/- 30 sec.

If he runs a good race, I bet he'll hang on for a shade under 2:10. I'll say 2:09:40.

2:12:36

xc04 wrote:

I hope he goes through the half in approx. 65...

His comments before/after the half indicate he'll go with the leaders in NYC, which is great. Despite naysayers, 13.1 fitness does have some bearing on 26.2 fitness, and he did run with great company. WTF is a 2:11-2:12 going to do for him, besides a getting a kiss from his sister?? Maybe our promising milers can aspire for 3:40 1500's next season. I assume Ritz go for the win, instead of 8th place. At NYC, I don't want to see him let runners go, when he could give it a shot. I'm speaking within reason, and not him faultering to a 2:17 or DNF.

I've always been a ritz fan, and although I'd rather see him focus on the track for a few more years, in 2012 he could be a legit contender for the gold medal at the oylmpics in the marathon. So with all sincerity I wish him good luck, but I hope he refocuses on the track until at least 2008. As for New York 2:09:35, taking in the difficulty of the course and the amount of talent he obviously has. He is a lot smarter then most of you think, he won't go out faster than he is sure he can hold.

ttc wrote:

His comments before/after the half indicate he'll go with the leaders in NYC, which is great. .

Do you have any idea how fast the lead group goes in most NYC marathons? Ritz would be a fool to do go with them.

2:10:55 for fourth

I'm on the nightrainReady to crash and burnI never learn “As for the New York Marathon, I don’t want to put any limits on myself. A lot can happen in a marathon but after today I am full of confidence and even think I can win it.”Paul Tergat: "Ritzenwho?"

force recon wrote:

He is a lot smarter then most of you think, he won't go out faster than he is sure he can hold.

I have a slightly different opinion:

I don't get the track focus thing. That philosophy is what keeps most of our talented marathoners out of the game too long.

You don't lose focus on track by running a fall marathon (hell, even a spring marathon). The targeted, high end aerobic training/mileage needed for a successful marathon only helps that athlete for track. All roads lead back to Lydiard anyone?

Focusing on track is what kept Ritz on injured reserves and Hudson (smarter than most on these boards think) recogized that straight away.