Rojo guaranteeing 3:27 (for Cam Myers) at a minimum in Stockholm M1500

I didn't realize he was running the 15 at the Stockholm DL. Seems ambitious but I guess Rojo is back baby!

I actually think Rojo could go through 800m in 3:27, but I am not sure if he would be able to continue after that, but I do think he could do a couple 1:43xx laps.

I think only about 11 runners in history have ever broken 3:28, so it is quite optimistic, but I cannot say he is wrong. How can anyone know ahead of time?

No, I think Myers will win in 3'29. The story here is the second race of Almgren v Gressier v Young.

Agreed. I think the frankly unbelievable results from Paris last year (Habz 3:27, Koech 3:27, Mills 3:28) are skewing perceptions here. Breaking 3:30 is still a big deal (Hocker has only done it twice in his career), and while I do think Myers has the potential to run 3:27 in the future, I don’t expect him to do it this weekend.

"at a minimum" is a big call. That means no matter what - including a messy race, pacing is slightly off, field doesn't go with the pace etc - it's going to be at worst a 3.27.x?

I think this quixotic take is just symptomatic of the times where running a performance like this is kind of taken for granted. It doesn't matter how good or fit the field is, it's still tough for it to come together for the performance to be actually realized.

So, a 3.27 in Stockholm? I'd give it a 20% chance of happening (1 in 5)

Nuguse is rolling and not about to lose to anyone running slower than 3:28.00.

Rojo is a smart man. He already knows I will run at least a 3:27 or better. Thus, the reasoning behind his statement. In fact, I already plan on a 3:24, 3:27 is so mid 2000s.

And don't forget that with it's long straights and tight(er) turns, Stockholm isn't traditionally one of the faster venues for 1500m running/miling.

The meet record there is still 3.29.30 from El G all the way back in 1997.

When you compare this vs other major/prominent European venues in the DL that always pull consistently great fields, it's way behind.

Zurich: 3.26.45

Brussels: 3.26.12

Oslo: 3.27.95 (usually a mile)

Monaco: 3.26.73

Rome: 3.26.00*

Paris: 3.27.49

London: 3.28.82 (also usually a mile)

Silesia: 3.27.15

Lausanne 3.27.83

Just coincidence?

There might be something to this. Pacers are Rudolf/Claridge. That is OK but if you want to ensure a 3:27 you hire Sisk. I’m going to say Myers run 3:28 as the field is huge and I do have my concerns about the venue.

Myers has only ever broken 3:30 twice in his life, and just barely at 3:29.8 in a perfect time trial. He will be lucky to run under 3:30 again in a crowded field in Stockholm. He will have to really push hard.

Wait, some tracks have longer straightaways and tighter turns? I thought all 400m outdoor tracks were the same dimensions?

Correct.

There is a variation (not much) allowed for outdoor tracks primarily because so many tracks were built in multi-purpose stadiums which have football pitches inside them and these can also be of varying dimensions.

There is of course a "standard" measurement (which most new stadium/track constructions will follow, but the IAAF/WA did/does allow for some variation which makes sense given some tracks are still in old and historic stadiums like Stockholm that were built well before the "standard dimension" was created.

You can find all the info in the Track and Field Facilities manual on the World Athletics website.

3:27 high at a maximum, but even this is very optimistic as pointed out by all of the very good posts above.

It will be interesting to see if Cam Myers "has arrived" in this race e.g. does he take the front behind the pacers as the alpha, and then the eventual lead? Or does he sit back a bit and deploy a different tactic, where it might get a bit scruffy in the pack?

If the former, I fully expect Nuguse to find a spot directly behind Myers. For Nuguse, this will be like resuming BAU, just like the "old days" racing Jakob.

I'm not placing too high expectations on Laros, it is his first run of the season after all. However, if it for some reasons turns into a 3:33 race, then he will be a danger man.