Quincy Wilson Mile Potential? Sub 4:20?

What a lot people don’t realize is that there is actual science behind sprinters’ abilities and distance runners’ abilities. The faster you are, the more likely you are to experience diminishing returns in performance as the distance increases. This is because of a number of factors, including the fact that fast twitch muscle fibers wear out particularly quickly.

There is a common perennial misunderstanding. Distance runners tend to believe that the more raw speed a runner has, the more distance performance strength and upside he will have. That is contrary to the evidence, in fact the reverse is true. Nature either selects sprinters or distance runners biologically.

Quincy Wilson has no 1500 or mile time. When sprinter guys like him occasionally try the longer distances, they nearly always astonish people with how mediocre their times at those distances are. With the 800, yes it’s not uncommon for them to run a respectable yet still sub elite time in the 1:50s. Wilson himself has a 1:50 800 pb, but that is nothing earth shattering and it indicates what we normally see with sprinters; his endurance plateaus at 600m and falls off a cliff at 800m. He might be able to run around a 4:25 mile, but that’s slow and it shows continued and predictable decline of endurance. In short, nature chose for him to be a sprinter. He will never be a good miler, even if he trained for it.

Wait until Armstronglivs chimes in to pontificate.

I would guess his absolute ceiling would be a 3:50 mile, but his training would change substantially and he would only be a 46.7 400m guy at that point.

5:00

when you can run 44.low in the 400 you do not have to run other events

When you can run 44.low at his age, you need to run the 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600 and even the 800 to do everything you can to run 42.high but I just don't see the mile as helpful with that goal.

You believe increasing his mileage and peeling of some muscle will change him into a miler? His best distance is 400m and always will be. It would be no different than turning a 3:50 guy into a 46 second 400m runner.

Not sure of his mile potential, but I’m sure he will break the marathon WR in the next 12-18 months

also, congrats on the humble brag🤪

I am discussing his absolute ceiling. He is 18 years old, so yeah I could turn him into a middle distance runner IF he would be willing to make the transition. But it wouldn’t make much sense because he is already world class at 400m. He has run what 1:50 or so?

Exactly. There isn’t an Eskimo’s chance in hell he would or could ever run 3:50. He would literally be the only example in the history of the planet of someone who could sprint a 44 sec 400 and also run an elite mile. It amazes me that there is actually quite a bit of data on athletics and yet there are still such pervasive misunderstandings.

Easily sub 4:20.

There was a quarter miler, Brian Theriot, from Newport Beach/UCLA. He ran sub 47 in 400, later converted to 800/1500 at UCLA, achieving 1:45 in the 8 and 3:36 in the 15 in the late 1970s. He often ran as a pacer at big races. I remember seeing him race in high school. He was a bad ass. Just learned that he passed away last year at the age of 67. RIP, Brian. Your were one of the great ones in So Cal Prep Track history.

Yeah, Theriot was one of the top HS quarter guys (440y) in CA ‘74 and ‘75. Went from the 400 on upward after his frosh year at UCLA. At first a lot of us were shocked but he had great results in the end.

Someone cannot read. Quincy would not be capable of 44 and 3:50. Quincy would be capable of 3:50, but not 44. And that is an absolute ceiling, and most do not reach that. So more than likely we would be looking at a 3:55 guy, no big shock considering he ran 1:50.44 at age 16.

Not all 1:50s are created equal. A 50/1:50 guy would kick Quincy’s ass in a mile.

What? Why?

Yes of course. But Quincy’s ceiling is not 1:50.

When you see the 16 year old drop a 1:50.44 like this, you know he likely has 1:45 talent.

He ran a 1:50 800 in 10th grade. I have no reason to believe that he would be elite or even particularly good in the mile, but he could probably cover a mile in 5 minutes running backwards. And remember Athing Mu (not quite as fast-twitch biased as Quincy Wilson but still) put together a pretty solid 1500 on about her third or 4th try, and although not as good for a male as Mu was for a woman, Quincy is much faster in an absolute sense. I think with a season of training, Quincy could run a 1500/mile at least as fast as Athing Mu, which would put him in the low 4:20 range. Granted there would be no reason whatsoever for him to do that (running a 4:23 mile is completely worthless to a world class sprinter), I think he could.