Naoko Takahashi ran 2:19:46 at 2001 Berlin Marathon. It's 2026 and no US woman has run under 2:18. Explain the lag.
Naoko Takahashi ran 2:19:46 at 2001 Berlin Marathon. It's 2026 and no US woman has run under 2:18. Explain the lag.
East Africans are more talented at this sort of thing. Because this hurts the feelings of others, they blame drugs for this disparity.
The first sub-10 100m was by Jim Hines in the 1968 Olympics. Why are there still 200 nations that have not broken the 10-second barrier, including Poland, Spain, New Zealand, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, and Ireland?
cuts both ways wrote:
The first sub-10 100m was by Jim Hines in the 1968 Olympics. Why are there still 200 nations that have not broken the 10-second barrier, including Poland, Spain, New Zealand, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, and Ireland?
Well again West Africans are naturally fast at sprints and others not so much.
Takahashi is Japanese.
No American of east African descent has ever gone sub-2:19.
Japanese NR is currently 2:18:59 from Jan 2024. 25 years, almost no improvement.
idle time wrote:
Takahashi is Japanese.
No American of east African descent has ever gone sub-2:19.
Japanese NR is currently 2:18:59 from Jan 2024. 25 years, almost no improvement.
Exactly. You are starting to understand.
Americans have no idea how to train for the marathon. See also all the recent discussions here about time conversions from half and shorter distances to marathon, as if they aren't completely different events.
2001 was still the EPO era. And most of our top female marathoners have been washed up track stars and B-teamers. We haven't seem a top-tier talent move to the marathon in her early 20s yet.
cuts both ways wrote:
The first sub-10 100m was by Jim Hines in the 1968 Olympics. Why are there still 200 nations that have not broken the 10-second barrier, including Poland, Spain, New Zealand, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, and Ireland?
No orher country has as many competitive runners on all levels as America, while t&f is an almost non existing sport in Sweden.
Baumann fan wrote:
2001 was still the EPO era. And most of our top female marathoners have been washed up track stars and B-teamers. We haven't seem a top-tier talent move to the marathon in her early 20s yet.
Would this change if the NCAA held annual D1 Marathon Championships in Sept or March?
The small-ish improvements of several countries in the last 20 years is quite noteworthy, especially considering supershoes (+ pacing + training + nutrition advances). It's not just the US:
WR now 2:09:56 (Kenya) - 20 years ago 2:15:25 (UK): difference 5:31
Countries:
Ethiopia NR now 2:10:51 – 20 years ago 2:22:19: difference 11:28Baumann fan wrote:
2001 was still the EPO era. And most of our top female marathoners have been washed up track stars and B-teamers. We haven't seem a top-tier talent move to the marathon in her early 20s yet.
I thought the Japanese didn't do drugs?
ayf wrote:
Americans have no idea how to train for the marathon. See also all the recent discussions here about time conversions from half and shorter distances to marathon, as if they aren't completely different events.
Rather than not knowing how to train, they just aren’t talented enough. At the 2024 trials, only a couple had sub-31:00 10000m PRs. The new women’s WR is 30:56 pace. Maybe a 100 American men can run faster for 10000m, than Kiptum’s WR pace of 28:35
Ooops I switched Germany's now and 20 years ago, sorry.
Germany NR now 2:19:19 - 20 years ago 2:24:35 difference 5:16
The 2:19:19 is from 2008. Meaning like in case of the UK, no German woman is faster now with supershoes than before 2009.
Maybe one should look into:
pre 2009 (no ABP)
2009 - 2015 (no supershoes but ABP)
since 2016 (supershoes and ABP)
Talent is not a good argument. Why could Paula and Irina and Deena run 2:15 - 2:19 in the 2000s, but only three Americans ran 2:18 - 2:19 in the 2020s with supershoes (which includes the Kenyan-born Betsy)? I'd rather blame lack of interest (e.g., soccer)/role models and focus and track etc. (contrasted with ever increasing interest of African women).
Also it's all a question of the time. For example, the first African to set a WR in the women's marathon was Tegla Loroupe, as late as 1998. Before that, it was all Europe or NZ or US or Canada. Paula then set three WRs in the 2000s. When Deena ran her 2:19, she was less than 4 minutes slower than the WR. Now the AR is almost 9 minutes slower than the WR.
facts are facts wrote:
Ooops I switched Germany's now and 20 years ago, sorry.
Germany NR now 2:19:19 - 20 years ago 2:24:35 difference 5:16
The 2:19:19 is from 2008. Meaning like in case of the UK, no German woman is faster now with supershoes than before 2009.
Maybe one should look into:
pre 2009 (no ABP)
2009 - 2015 (no supershoes but ABP)
since 2016 (supershoes and ABP)
Talent is not a good argument. Why could Paula and Irina and Deena run 2:15 - 2:19 in the 2000s, but only three Americans ran 2:18 - 2:19 in the 2020s with supershoes (which includes the Kenyan-born Betsy)? I'd rather blame lack of interest (e.g., soccer)/role models and focus and track etc. (contrasted with ever increasing interest of African women).
Also it's all a question of the time. For example, the first African to set a WR in the women's marathon was Tegla Loroupe, as late as 1998. Before that, it was all Europe or NZ or US or Canada. Paula then set three WRs in the 2000s. When Deena ran her 2:19, she was less than 4 minutes slower than the WR. Now the AR is almost 9 minutes slower than the WR.
Same applies to GB. Still weird (to some) that Paula is the only Brit in history quicker than 2:20. Less weird is Jane Hedengren setting three ARs in the late 2030s, topping out at 2:16 and change.
Japanese stagnation is puzzling.
No woman born in Europe (population: 743 million) has run sub-2:20 since the year 2008.
idle time wrote:
Naoko Takahashi ran 2:19:46 at 2001 Berlin Marathon. It's 2026 and no US woman has run under 2:18. Explain the lag.
I was wondering the same thing in this era of supershoes.
I recently wrote in another thread: "Since Paula Radcliffe ran a couple 2:17:xx's, then a 2:15:25 with 2 male pacemakers so long ago, and now with the benefit of supershoes, I've long thought women would eventually be running several minutes faster.
I think it is a problem of lack of critical mass and a lack of will to be aggressive from the gun. They should be able to at least replicate Paula's 2:17s, but generally they don't need to run faster than 2:18 because no one they are competing against is.
Paula ran her 2:15:25 because there were 2:16 (male) pacemakers, and Paula decided to go with them from the gun.
slowish wrote:
No woman born in Europe (population: 743 million) has run sub-2:20 since the year 2008.
Even counting African born, Ingrid Kristiansen is still in the top-10 European women with her 2:21:06 from 1985, and just 2 women running sub-2:21 since 2008.
Weini will run 2:16 at Chicago.