Sub 2 :50 Marathon Shape?

Yes, with the info you provide, I would assume you have a good chance. Running 25k faster than Marathon pace in a big week is a really good indicator. But it also requires that you in fact have done some really good weeks the preceding weeks , which with the average you are writing it seems that you have. Have you consistently had intervals/tempo and long runs in those weeks?

Remember to practice your fueling as well.

Thanks for the advice. Yes, following a plan which alternates between 2 sessions and steady long run, or 1 session and a long run workout. Rest of running is just easy mileage. Sessions are no faster than 3:40/km, haven't really focused on vo2 max type stuff at all. You think some strides/faster stuff would be benficial in final few weeks before raceday?

Also, yes been experimenting with gels a lot. During yesterday's session got in 90g carbs/hour. Confident my gut can tolerate high carb intake now, which I think is very important to avoid hitting the wall (that and a carb load).

Thats great, I think you should stick to your plan tbh. You can do strides on easy days, but only if you feel for it, it shouldn't be done if you are completely flat. It could be 6x100m in 5k or a bit faster pace, at the end of your run.

The overall structure of your plan sounds fine and I don't think you need to introduce VO2 sessions, long runs and tempos are far more important at this point.

Training looks solid, good luck!

I never got the nutrition down and always bonked at the end with a few 2:52's to my name. That was another time and I think I would have got there if I worked out the fluids/nutrition better. So cease the day while you can!

Going off of just this one performance: approximately, yes. That's assuming that your race's course is similar to the training route in terms of things like hills and stuff.

For the time between now and your race, I wouldn't make major changes to your approach. Like, for a 2:50 you don't need to start trying new types of intense speed work. Use your remaining weeks to keep slowly building your overall endurance/strength the way you have been. If 3:40/km is the workout "zone" where you're getting some comfortable exertion while only needing a day or two of easy running recovery before being ready to go again, then stick with that.

It's possible fi you're one of those endurance types who can cruise at high % of Vo2max, but not a lock, Consider that the first half of a marathon should feel like 5/6 RPE (5-7 depending on who you read). 25k is not much further and if you're hitting 7RPE, that's starting to creep up there. RPE is subjective so who knows for sure, or how tired your legs were. Other questions are how long is your long run and does it feel comfortable or are you wasted afterwards?

Do you have any 5k/10k times to add more data points? When i got stuck at 2:50:xx i was running 36:xx 10ks, and yeah, first 20-25k of marathon always felt easy and floaty. I think you're leaving a lot on the table not doing VO2 efforts in training, because as VO2 goes up, generally your tempo/MP will as well. However, with your investment in time at this point, and previous injury(s), injury prevention becomes a high priority, so careful with new stuff!

Glad you're getting your fueling nailed down, that's a struggle for some folks.

Even if you get close but don't break 250, you would be on the right trajectory, rest, analyze, retrain and you should get it eventually. Good luck!

25k @ GMP in a normal training week is upper limit for most people. You would almost be disappointed to not run 2:48-flat in a race. Hopefully you didn't leave your race. It's definitely a sub-2:50 indicator.

Thanks all for the advice. Some more data points.

In 2023 I ran 16:20 for 5k on the track when I was in peak shape. I only got properly back into running last year and haven’t focused much on 5k speed recently, but over Christmas I ran 17:30 on a hilly course off relatively low overall fitness. A few days later I ran 36:30 for 10k.

Based on how training has progressed since then, I’d estimate I’m around 16:50 shape for 5k and 35:5x for 10k right now, though obviously that’s speculative without racing.

Long runs over the last 4–5 weeks have been 29–32km. I’m usually a bit muscularly tired the next day but can handle a 10–12k recovery run Monday and feel good again by Tuesday. Taking one full rest day per week (usually Thursday) and keeping some gym work in to stay robust.

Think I'll continue current training style and report back after marathon with time, could be useful for future readers.

One last question for people in the 2:50 range, would you start right on 4:02/km from the gun or aim slightly conservative and aim to negative split?

16:20 is enough speed to go after sub-2:40. Even 16:50/35:5x would give you a low 2:40-mid-2:40s range. It seems like endurance might be a problem, but, given the long run, you seem to have the strength to, at a minimum, chase 2:50.

As far as pacing goes, very few have ever finished a marathon & said, man I wish I would've just run the 1st 5k faster. General rule is to start 5-15s/mile off of goal pace and lock into goal pace by 5k-10k. Given your info maybe you start right @ 2:50 pace/a touch slower & then settle into 4:00 k's by 5k-10k. I think basically by 10k your goal should be to run as many 4:00 k's as possible until you get to the finish. Dial in a good fueling plan. Adjust the day's goals if weather isn't good.

Those are strong 5k/10k times for a 250 goal! I agree with NERunner, start at 250 pace for first 5-10k. It's mostly a gut call on when to pick it up depending on how you're feeling that day, taper success, hills etc. Ideally you find a like minded group to pace with. Good luck.