I don’t agree regarding the outdoor record. His form is still not efficient enough under the stress that running under 1.41.0 is exposed to.
Today was not surprising. I’ve seen him run 1.13.5 as part of a workout that was 2500m in total volume so running under 73 seconds was expected. One thing we have to realize is that the 600m was/is just not an event that any of the top guys in history really ever chased. God knows what Kipketer was capable of - especially in 97 when he survived a 48.30 first lap and still ran 1.41.2. People forget than when Rudisha ran his 1.13.1, it was 2016 and he was well past his career window for breaking the WR (2010-2012). Those guys at their peak 800m shapes were both low 72 second guys.
One 800m WR I think he can get? The indoor one. Kipketer was a better talent and runner but he never targeted that record he just wanted to show his coach he was fit and training was going well. Hoey has the drive, focus and more importantly the shape which never really dipped off after the summer (because he barely took any rest and doesn’t seem to care about periodization of any type). He could run 1.42.3/4 within the next 10 weeks I have no doubt about that.
I don’t agree regarding the outdoor record. His form is still not efficient enough under the stress that running under 1.41.0 is exposed to.
Today was not surprising. I’ve seen him run 1.13.5 as part of a workout that was 2500m in total volume so running under 73 seconds was expected. One thing we have to realize is that the 600m was/is just not an event that any of the top guys in history really ever chased. God knows what Kipketer was capable of - especially in 97 when he survived a 48.30 first lap and still ran 1.41.2. People forget than when Rudisha ran his 1.13.1, it was 2016 and he was well past his career window for breaking the WR (2010-2012). Those guys at their peak 800m shapes were both low 72 second guys.
One 800m WR I think he can get? The indoor one. Kipketer was a better talent and runner but he never targeted that record he just wanted to show his coach he was fit and training was going well. Hoey has the drive, focus and more importantly the shape which never really dipped off after the summer (because he barely took any rest and doesn’t seem to care about periodization of any type). He could run 1.42.3/4 within the next 10 weeks I have no doubt about that.
Outdoor record? Don’t see it.
I think the 800m record does go down this year. Really no reason for Wanyonyi and team to not chase it. The pressure is completely off him from a winning standpoint. I think his two key focuses on the year will be laying down a fast 1500 early, and then hitting the WR in a lightning quick DL like Monaco/Paris. Winning the DL final/World Ultimate champs of course he’ll try but this is the year for a record chase.
Hoey could benefit from this and really max out. I see that more in the 1:41-mid range but we’ll see.
This post was edited 37 seconds after it was posted.
I think the 800m record does go down this year. Really no reason for Wanyonyi and team to not chase it. The pressure is completely off him from a winning standpoint. I think his two key focuses on the year will be laying down a fast 1500 early, and then hitting the WR in a lightning quick DL like Monaco/Paris. Winning the DL final/World Ultimate champs of course he’ll try but this is the year for a record chase.
Hoey could benefit from this and really max out. I see that more in the 1:41-mid range but we’ll see.
I mean it could - but here is the thing. After 2024 did anyone think we would be sitting here at the end of 2025 and not only would the WR be intact, but the years best performance would be over half a second away from that time set 13 years ago? (And moving in the wrong direction from 24?)
The simple logic is that in a non championship year there’s a better chance it goes down but I don’t know about that. Those guys were still focussed on it this year and as we know, there are only so many years even the very best on the planet have to go for it (and it’s not many). I think either way Hoey can make the jump and run under 1.42 (I mean Hoppel did so why not) but my concern with him is when is the band going to snap because he seems incapable of taking it easy on himself. I did hear that World Indoors is not on his docket in 2026 so at least that’s a start.
I still believe this is the case - with the depth of talent here now capable of sub 1.42, assembling them all in the same race may not be the best idea. Needs a smaller, targeted race with only one contender and a great pacer.
This sounds slightly pessimistic to me Hoey is a very different type of runner than either Rudisha and Kipketer and he is substantially faster than them at 600m AND 1500m. The fact is, he has a performance profile we have not encountered yet and I’m sure you could chalk some of it up to shoes and tracks, but not all of it. I think the competition he’ll face is much stronger than either Rudisha or Kipketer, so that record will go down this summer. 1:40.7, something like that. Under no circumstances do I see 1:39.xx in the cards, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the record broke 2-3 this summer with Messers Arop, Sedjati, Wanyoni also tearing it up among others. Why not Hoey? 1:12.x is insane indoors or out. 3:29 says he can bring it home. He ran 1:42 5 months ago. Has anyone ever had this kind of range all at once from 600-1500m?
there's a lot of stupid gimmicks that people think work that don't, but bicarb caused a mad rush of new 1:41 800 runners all at once, as soon as it became popular. It's the only new thing. They already had "the shoes" before that and nothing happened, not that it would have - just a gimmick. But bicarb is no gimmick.
If I know 800 elites are all soda'd up, I can't care what they are doing, or find any relevance to my own 800 racing, unless I get soda'd up too.
I mean it could - but here is the thing. After 2024 did anyone think we would be sitting here at the end of 2025 and not only would the WR be intact, but the years best performance would be over half a second away from that time set 13 years ago? (And moving in the wrong direction from 24?)
The simple logic is that in a non championship year there’s a better chance it goes down but I don’t know about that. Those guys were still focussed on it this year and as we know, there are only so many years even the very best on the planet have to go for it (and it’s not many). I think either way Hoey can make the jump and run under 1.42 (I mean Hoppel did so why not) but my concern with him is when is the band going to snap because he seems incapable of taking it easy on himself. I did hear that World Indoors is not on his docket in 2026 so at least that’s a start.
I still believe this is the case - with the depth of talent here now capable of sub 1.42, assembling them all in the same race may not be the best idea. Needs a smaller, targeted race with only one contender and a great pacer.
I think the late champs was problematic last year. No such problem this year. I agree with your assessment that there has to be a clear path for an 800m WR probably, but last year everyone did defer to EW at Monaco. I could see that again…
The 800m is set up nicely for EW as its heavily frontloaded. The best guys can be in peak shape in early July and really theres plenty of type to regroup until September. Its almost like a quasi indoors to outdoors season.
If this guy breaks the WR I will not be happy. I do not advocate for him at all. He is extremely shady and I'm tired of everyone pretending like his improvement isn't incredibly suspicious.
This sounds slightly pessimistic to me Hoey is a very different type of runner than either Rudisha and Kipketer and he is substantially faster than them at 600m AND 1500m. The fact is, he has a performance profile we have not encountered yet and I’m sure you could chalk some of it up to shoes and tracks, but not all of it. I think the competition he’ll face is much stronger than either Rudisha or Kipketer, so that record will go down this summer. 1:40.7, something like that. Under no circumstances do I see 1:39.xx in the cards, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the record broke 2-3 this summer with Messers Arop, Sedjati, Wanyoni also tearing it up among others. Why not Hoey? 1:12.x is insane indoors or out. 3:29 says he can bring it home. He ran 1:42 5 months ago. Has anyone ever had this kind of range all at once from 600-1500m?
You are right he is a very different type of runner to Rudisha and Kipketer but where does the statement "substantially faster than them at 600m" come from?
How would you possibly know that? What is that based on? Kipketers peak was '96 and '97. Rudisha 2010-2012 - show me the 600m races for both of those guys (far different from even a training timetrial) where they really went for a time like Josh Hoey did yesterday (because he left it all out there). David Rudisha ran 1.13.10 outdoors on that crappy Birmingham (UK) track in 2016 when he was well past his absolute best. That's a fact - he never broke 1.42 after that year as injury and just the fatigue of how hard it is to run multiple years under 1.42 (and then 1.41) just caught up with him. Yet he still ran what, only 0.26 seconds slower than Josh Hoey in his absolute career peak just did indoors on the worlds fastest running surface?
Back to the differences - yeah, David Rudisha ran 45.50 out of the blocks for 400m so for a big guy like him who I doubt was an elite block starter, he's probably very close to 45.0 in a relay leg. Hoey is fast but he's not that fast because if he was he would have the outdoor WR already. Kipketer doesn't have 400m performances we can point to but we can use some common sense which suggest that an athlete that can run 23.2/48.3 for the opening 200/400 of an 800m and still survive to run 1.41.2, has got all-time anaerobic threshold and capacity which also points to 400m ability under 46.0 seconds in a rolling start/relay type scenario.
Final point I'll make on Hoey - what's more impressive - 1.13.5 for a 600m as part of a workout totalling 2500m or 1.12.84 flat to the boards in a one-off world record focussed attempt? The answer is they are both incredibly impressive but not really that different in how impressive they are. At a common sense estimate, if you can run 1.13.5 and then go on and run another 1900m of a workout you are probably in sub 73 second shape at that specific moment then too. Well that workout was in March of last year and last year he ran 1.42 flat. The point is, this is a nice moment and a still a great performance but doesn't really point to anything as dramatic as a 1.0+ second improvement over 800m given he has at a point in his career been in this shape already. Now if he hadn't touched foot on a track since September and ran 80 miles last week then just came out and busted that performance then that's something else - but I'm quite sure that's not the case.
As for pessimism? I said I thought he could run the world indoor record over 800m which is considered as a legendary performance that was on par with Kipketers outdoor records at the time given the circumstances! I don't think that's pessimistic at all - that is pretty high respect and praise to have him in that category of potential.
This sounds slightly pessimistic to me Hoey is a very different type of runner than either Rudisha and Kipketer and he is substantially faster than them at 600m AND 1500m. The fact is, he has a performance profile we have not encountered yet and I’m sure you could chalk some of it up to shoes and tracks, but not all of it. I think the competition he’ll face is much stronger than either Rudisha or Kipketer, so that record will go down this summer. 1:40.7, something like that. Under no circumstances do I see 1:39.xx in the cards, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the record broke 2-3 this summer with Messers Arop, Sedjati, Wanyoni also tearing it up among others. W n]]ot Hoey? 1:12.x is insane indoors or out. 3:29 says he can bring it home. He ran 1:42 5 months ago. Has anyone ever had this kind of range all at once from 600-1500m?
You are right he is a very different type of runner to Rudisha and Kipketer but where does the statement "substantially faster than them at 600m" come from?
How would you possibly know that?
I guess my perception of pessimism is the statement that his form is not efficient enough to best 1:41 now… And I did say slightly.
I did a thing where I compiled and plotted all the greats’ PR scores from 600-800-1000-1500. Without exception, Hoey is the old person to show either a flat line or slight linear relationship with a negative slope across the range AND be above 5000 points for the series. I know points systems can be problematic, but I think they become useful to make comparisons just like this.
In short, we are seeing an athlete like never before. No one has simultaneously had this speed and range. The 93 point difference in 600m performance between Hoey and Rudisha speaks for itself. Look at the plot here.
You could say that Rudisha’s 600 is non-representative, but if it were in line with Hoey’s indoor mark it would only highlight the drop off above 800 even more. BTW, even here I’m fudging a bit because I’m taking the word of a LR guy who has Rudisha running a 3:36 for 1500m in an old thread.
When we look at 1000-1500, they are not in the same class of athlete. You seem to agree. Hoey is not there yet at 800. So I’m completely fine if you call bs on the 1 to 1 comparison between those two, but what if we pick 12 all-time leaders who could be said to be 800m specialists - I have Sedjati, Wanyoni, Hoppel, Arop, etc + Rudisha and Kipketer. I averaged their scores and plotted Hoey again.
He ran all these performances inside of a calendar year, so maybe we’re getting unusual insight into a versatile athlete near peak performance. The psychological weight of running that fast in such varied events seems high. Perhaps that’s why so few have done it.
Are we looking at an outlier among outliers in terms of Hoey’s performance curve? Or is he going to PR and reestablish the traditional profile for 800m specialists here - what would that suggest about his current ceiling?
Let’s say that he brought his 800m PR in line with 600m. 1310 points suggests 1:40.6. I believe he will come close to that this summer.
I could be trippin but I don't think Cooper Lukenhaus will ever run faster than that 1:42 he dropped...too competitive of a time to routinely duplicate....again, could be tripping....but I also could be right
You are right he is a very different type of runner to Rudisha and Kipketer but where does the statement "substantially faster than them at 600m" come from?
How would you possibly know that?
I guess my perception of pessimism is the statement that his form is not efficient enough to best 1:41 now… And I did say slightly.
I did a thing where I compiled and plotted all the greats’ PR scores from 600-800-1000-1500. Without exception, Hoey is the old person to show either a flat line or slight linear relationship with a negative slope across the range AND be above 5000 points for the series. I know points systems can be problematic, but I think they become useful to make comparisons just like this.
In short, we are seeing an athlete like never before. No one has simultaneously had this speed and range. The 93 point difference in 600m performance between Hoey and Rudisha speaks for itself. Look at the plot .
You could say that Rudisha’s 600 is non-representative, but if it were in line with Hoey’s indoor mark it would only highlight the drop off above 800 even more. BTW, even here I’m fudging a bit because I’m taking the word of a LR guy who has Rudisha running a 3:36 for 1500m in an old thread.
When we look at 1000-1500, they are not in the same class of athlete. You seem to agree. Hoey is not there yet at 800. So I’m completely fine if you call bs on the 1 to 1 comparison between those two, but what if we pick 12 all-time leaders who could be said to be 800m specialists - I have Sedjati, Wanyoni, Hoppel, Arop, etc + Rudisha and Kipketer. I averaged their scores and Hoey again.
He ran all these performances inside of a calendar year, so maybe we’re getting unusual insight into a versatile athlete near peak performance. The psychological weight of running that fast in such varied events seems high. Perhaps that’s why so few have done it.
Are we looking at an outlier among outliers in terms of Hoey’s performance curve? Or is he going to PR and reestablish the traditional profile for 800m specialists here - what would that suggest about his current ceiling?
Let’s say that he brought his 800m PR in line with 600m. 1310 points suggests 1:40.6. I believe he will come close to that this summer.
You do seem very enthusiastic, and though i have not read your whole post I do praise you for your analytical skills and attempt to show objectively how Hoey’s performances stack up against other greats. Well done. You are making a few assumptions, but that doesn’t matter.
However, I do think you might be getting ahead of yourself and missing the common sense big picture. Josh is too intense and won’t listen to anyone. He has taken no time off since World’s and there is no possible way he is going to be able to sustain his grueling training program another cycle. He would have to be a cyborg for his body not to get broken down after what he has done to it. Nobody can train like that with no rest period and not get injured. He ran an indoor 600m record in December, while everybody else is sensible enough to rest now and gear up for when the real season begins.
I hate to say it, but I think that 600m WR is about the best thing we are ever going to see from Josh. He will hit the proverbial wall in about a month’s time, be a no show for the remainder of indoors, and will struggle immensely outdoors either from injuries or illnesses. He is talented beyond doubt and is capable of 1:40 high but I am predicting we will never see it. Nobody can train like he does and sustain. It’s over.
What's the 1200m WR? Perfect race for him. D-Med leadoff?
The DL 800 fields are too big. They need one good rabbit and 4 entries of 2 x 1:41 guys and 2 x 1:43 guys willing to just hang right behind as long as they can, say 650 m. This allows for the tightest setup, closest to the rail without all the NASCAR bumping around and a clear shot at a WR with such little room for margin.
Championship racing isn't likely to produce many WR in the future with exception of what happened in 2012. Front runner and a train line with several guys spaced out perfectly resulting in the fastest times for all 8 places. There appears to be a critical mass of 1:41 guys which makes for a cluster of impedance. Need that one guy thats ready to bust out of the pack right away. Maybe Hoey is that guy if he times his training and racing right. Maybe Wanyoni? 49.2/49.9. It's the damned 48+ that just doesn't leave enough in the tank and stay clear of the mess.
Yes, I am enthusiastic here and something that appears anomalous is always going to get my attention. You are also right that I made a few assumptions and didn’t detail them - this ain’t substack after all.
I do see your point though - the combined physiological and psychological stress has to be off the charts. I would say that he seems to be built for fast times and not championship racing
It’s lame to say this, but … we’ll see. IMO sooner rather than later, because no one can run like this for long. This is like peak Daniel Komen. That guy was just dropping crazy fast times in 1500-3000-5000 then Batmanned.
there's a lot of stupid gimmicks that people think work that don't, but bicarb caused a mad rush of new 1:41 800 runners all at once, as soon as it became popular. It's the only new thing. They already had "the shoes" before that and nothing happened, not that it would have - just a gimmick. But bicarb is no gimmick.
If I know 800 elites are all soda'd up, I can't care what they are doing, or find any relevance to my own 800 racing, unless I get soda'd up too.
My opinion is that he is on a lot more than bicarb. In the history of the sport there has never been anyone that has the same progression as Hoey. That said, he could break the record but it will then be a tarnished record.
My opinion is that he is on a lot more than bicarb. In the history of the sport there has never been anyone that has the same progression as Hoey. That said, he could break the record but it will then be a tarnished record.
Hoey is a unique case - that's for sure. If he's on something & gets busted, it will be something new and interesting. His pattern does not fit other known drug users.
It's also interesting you have Tygart saying dumb sh!t like 30% of positives are accidental, almost as if they're trying to get ahead of a story or mitigate risk for a corporation.