Should JI choose one (1500) or the other (5000) chasing PB/WR next season?

Rubio wrote:

First of all:
1. I’d love to see him break both WRs (and the mile), because witnessing a WR is a privilege. Whether it’s him or someone else, I think he deserves it, and I don’t see anyone else with the potential right now.
2. Either way, he already has the third-best mark in the mile and the 1500 (I’m not counting Kiprop — not sure if World Athletics still recognizes his mark), an Olympic gold, a World Championship gold, and two Diamond League titles.
I’m talking only about the 1500 here for the reasons I’ll outline:

El G was 23 when he broke the WR. Lagat was 26 when he set his PB.
In the 5000* (always their PBs, even if they had broken the WR earlier): Bekele 23, Chep 23, Geb 25, Komen 21.*

In a perfectly ideal scenario, maybe JI would have time to string together two full macrocycles and run in 2026 two (three if you include the mile) time trials designed as WR attempts for 1500/mile – 5000.
He could go for the 1500 at 26, and then the 5000 probably at 27. I think that’s the right order for those two distances, but I could be wrong.

I have no idea whether JI’s training model actually increases his competitive longevity, whether it has no impact at all, or whether his very early start might accelerate his decline.
I think this year was his moment, and his window of opportunity is shrinking.
If next year he managed not even the WR but "just" his PB in the 1500, he’d be the oldest athlete in recent history to do it.

Do you think he should choose one of the two?
If so, I think the 5000 is his best option. And not because I see it as “softer” or because of the correlation with his 7:17 (in MY experience, in terms of feel and physiological demands, the 5000 and the 3000 are nothing alike. But that’s just MY experience.)
But because you could design a WR attempt under FAR better conditions than Chep’s.

- His last pacer dropped out exactly at 6:06. And ALL six laps he ran alone were his fastest ones.
- He broke the record by almost exactly two seconds. If he had needed to run two/three tenths faster, i.e. very likely he would have done it.

In a 5000 where JI “only” has to run without a pacer from 3200 on — two laps less than Joshua — a Jakob in good shape should be capable of bettering 12:35.36.

I won’t get into the debate of whether he can go under 12:30... the same was said here about Cheptegei. And sub 26’. First, break the WR: that’s already no small feat.

*I know I’ve left out Hagos (who was 30), but that was because his PB came in the greatest 5000m race in history. And Kejelcha was 26. Expecting to replicate that unicorn race without Aregawi, Kiplimo, Barega, Kejelcha himself... all of whom will definitely move to the roads, would be naïve.

Kickers usually win wrote:

Rubio wrote:

First of all:
1. I’d love to see him break both WRs (and the mile), because witnessing a WR is a privilege. Whether it’s him or someone else, I think he deserves it, and I don’t see anyone else with the potential right now.
2. Either way, he already has the third-best mark in the mile and the 1500 (I’m not counting Kiprop — not sure if World Athletics still recognizes his mark), an Olympic gold, a World Championship gold, and two Diamond League titles.
I’m talking only about the 1500 here for the reasons I’ll outline:

El G was 23 when he broke the WR. Lagat was 26 when he set his PB.
In the 5000* (always their PBs, even if they had broken the WR earlier): Bekele 23, Chep 23, Geb 25, Komen 21.*

In a perfectly ideal scenario, maybe JI would have time to string together two full macrocycles and run in 2026 two (three if you include the mile) time trials designed as WR attempts for 1500/mile – 5000.
He could go for the 1500 at 26, and then the 5000 probably at 27. I think that’s the right order for those two distances, but I could be wrong.

I have no idea whether JI’s training model actually increases his competitive longevity, whether it has no impact at all, or whether his very early start might accelerate his decline.
I think this year was his moment, and his window of opportunity is shrinking.
If next year he managed not even the WR but "just" his PB in the 1500, he’d be the oldest athlete in recent history to do it.

Do you think he should choose one of the two?
If so, I think the 5000 is his best option. And not because I see it as “softer” or because of the correlation with his 7:17 (in MY experience, in terms of feel and physiological demands, the 5000 and the 3000 are nothing alike. But that’s just MY experience.)
But because you could design a WR attempt under FAR better conditions than Chep’s.

- His last pacer dropped out exactly at 6:06. And ALL six laps he ran alone were his fastest ones.
- He broke the record by almost exactly two seconds. If he had needed to run two/three tenths faster, i.e. very likely he would have done it.

In a 5000 where JI “only” has to run without a pacer from 3200 on — two laps less than Joshua — a Jakob in good shape should be capable of bettering 12:35.36.

I won’t get into the debate of whether he can go under 12:30... the same was said here about Cheptegei. And sub 26’. First, break the WR: that’s already no small feat.

*I know I’ve left out Hagos (who was 30), but that was because his PB came in the greatest 5000m race in history. And Kejelcha was 26. Expecting to replicate that unicorn race without Aregawi, Kiplimo, Barega, Kejelcha himself... all of whom will definitely move to the roads, would be naïve.

Both the the 1500m and 5000m are within his range and he can run both. He claims he trains like a HMer so there’s no focusing on either one.

Rubio wrote:

First of all:
1. I’d love to see him break both WRs (and the mile), because witnessing a WR is a privilege. Whether it’s him or someone else, I think he deserves it, and I don’t see anyone else with the potential right now.
2. Either way, he already has the third-best mark in the mile and the 1500 (I’m not counting Kiprop — not sure if World Athletics still recognizes his mark), an Olympic gold, a World Championship gold, and two Diamond League titles.
I’m talking only about the 1500 here for the reasons I’ll outline:

El G was 23 when he broke the WR. Lagat was 26 when he set his PB.
In the 5000* (always their PBs, even if they had broken the WR earlier): Bekele 23, Chep 23, Geb 25, Komen 21.*

In a perfectly ideal scenario, maybe JI would have time to string together two full macrocycles and run in 2026 two (three if you include the mile) time trials designed as WR attempts for 1500/mile – 5000.
He could go for the 1500 at 26, and then the 5000 probably at 27. I think that’s the right order for those two distances, but I could be wrong.

I have no idea whether JI’s training model actually increases his competitive longevity, whether it has no impact at all, or whether his very early start might accelerate his decline.
I think this year was his moment, and his window of opportunity is shrinking.
If next year he managed not even the WR but "just" his PB in the 1500, he’d be the oldest athlete in recent history to do it.

Do you think he should choose one of the two?
If so, I think the 5000 is his best option. And not because I see it as “softer” or because of the correlation with his 7:17 (in MY experience, in terms of feel and physiological demands, the 5000 and the 3000 are nothing alike. But that’s just MY experience.)
But because you could design a WR attempt under FAR better conditions than Chep’s.

- His last pacer dropped out exactly at 6:06. And ALL six laps he ran alone were his fastest ones.
- He broke the record by almost exactly two seconds. If he had needed to run two/three tenths faster, i.e. very likely he would have done it.

In a 5000 where JI “only” has to run without a pacer from 3200 on — two laps less than Joshua — a Jakob in good shape should be capable of bettering 12:35.36.

I won’t get into the debate of whether he can go under 12:30... the same was said here about Cheptegei. And sub 26’. First, break the WR: that’s already no small feat.

*I know I’ve left out Hagos (who was 30), but that was because his PB came in the greatest 5000m race in history. And Kejelcha was 26. Expecting to replicate that unicorn race without Aregawi, Kiplimo, Barega, Kejelcha himself... all of whom will definitely move to the roads, would be naïve.

2020420 wrote:

Rubio wrote:

I’m not even going to be demagogic and say that, according to that logic, Jakob should be able to run a 43.04 or break the 800m WR by more than half a second.

Good, because that would be facetious. And obviously Jakob can't run 3:24.82. If he breaks the 1500 WR it will be a high 3:25.

But the guy is literally perfectly built for 3k-5k. There's no reason to think he can't run a performance on par with 7:17 in the 5000. You mention that the scoring may be skewed because the 3k is contested less, but you're also not factoring in that Jakob ran that 7:17 in 85 degrees (29 C) with a 1:52 last 800. The guy was good for 7:15 or 7:16 on that day. And with that, I think that more than counterbalances any potential positive skewing towards the 3k performance.

I know it's tough to comprehend but there is nobody ever born more suited to cruise 60's than Jakob. If he returns to his late 2024 form or better he will be there first man to break 12:30.