This is a case where i think the USA would be best off to roll the dice on a Noah Lyles. When we're the team to beat, no way.
He might give us a mid 44, but it's also realistic to get a 43 low from him. I know they won't put him in, but that's the kind gambling we need to have a shot.
Poland (women) and Belgium have gotten good at the 4x4. They worked on it for a decade. Taking on larger countries is tough, but it can be seen as a keen challenge which is part of the fun.
This is a case where i think the USA would be best off to roll the dice on a Noah Lyles. When we're the team to beat, no way.
He might give us a mid 44, but it's also realistic to get a 43 low from him. I know they won't put him in, but that's the kind gambling we need to have a shot.
A 43 low from Noah Lyles meaning he's in high 43/low 44 shape out of the blocks? That is um, exceedingly optimistic to put it mildly.
The reality is if Tebogo runs the only way Botswana don't win this is if they drop the baton. They would be fielding a squad that just went 1,3,8 in the final plus him and even without him I'm sure they have someone else legit capable of a flying start 44.5 (just checked the world list they have a guy Ngozi who has run 45.01 this year)
When the US team broke the WR in Stuttgart they had 3 in the individual 400m final as well and they went Johnson 43.65, Reynolds 44.13, Watts 45.05. The Botswana trio just went 43.53, 44.20 and 44.77. That means the comparison ends with Andrew Valmon vs Tebogo - both low 44 guys.
Yeah put Lyles in - I think if he split much faster than 44.4/44.5 it would be extremely impressive. I have Botswana for the win in 2.54.05 - new WR.
This is a case where i think the USA would be best off to roll the dice on a Noah Lyles. When we're the team to beat, no way.
He might give us a mid 44, but it's also realistic to get a 43 low from him. I know they won't put him in, but that's the kind gambling we need to have a shot.
A 43 low from Noah Lyles meaning he's in high 43/low 44 shape out of the blocks? That is um, exceedingly optimistic to put it mildly.
The reality is if Tebogo runs the only way Botswana don't win this is if they drop the baton. They would be fielding a squad that just went 1,3,8 in the final plus him and even without him I'm sure they have someone else legit capable of a flying start 44.5 (just checked the world list they have a guy Ngozi who has run 45.01 this year)
When the US team broke the WR in Stuttgart they had 3 in the individual 400m final as well and they went Johnson 43.65, Reynolds 44.13, Watts 45.05. The Botswana trio just went 43.53, 44.20 and 44.77. That means the comparison ends with Andrew Valmon vs Tebogo - both low 44 guys.
Yeah put Lyles in - I think if he split much faster than 44.4/44.5 it would be extremely impressive. I have Botswana for the win in 2.54.05 - new WR.
I think you're mostly wrong. Botswana is the favorite, but not by that much.
Botswanas guys ran well. They made the final, but besides the stud, that's because they ran solid every round.
The US had guys run 43.9, 44.2, and 44.4 and 44.5 in the heats. Botswana had guys 43.5, 44.2, and 44.5 in the 400.
The US guys just didn't handle the rounds well, but all that's out the window because they have a few days to rest.
So realistically, the only advantage Botswana has is there stud gives them a few tenths advantage. The USA will replace one of the 44.5ish guys with Rae. So now they have someone who is on top of his game and split 43.1 before. If Botswana goes with their 45.0, they are now underdogs. But if they go with Tebogo, that cancels out Rae and they have a slight advantage. But...Tebogo hasn't looked as good as he did last year in the 200, and it's still a bit of a wildcard throwing a 100/200 guy at the end of a double in the 4x400. I wouldn't count on him for a 43.0 again. And then you're back to it being pretty dang even.
The advantage the US has is that they will be rested, running less rounds in the open 4 (which were brutally fast for open 400 first rounds and semis), and they will not have to run their A team in the 4x4 prelims. On the other hand, Botswana will have to run something much closer to their A team in the prelims, which means 3 dudes might have to run 5 400s this week, and then Tobogo has to run 3 100s, 3 200s, and 2 400s. Eventually it will add up: 400s are brutal on the body.
People keep mentioning the US population and forget that 2/3 of the US is overweight, unhealthy, etc.
if 2/3 are overweight in the USA population what 330 Million? That means 110 Million are in Shape, which means USA has more People in Shape Than Most Countries have People.
Lyles won't be on the relay. The 4x400 is like, 15 minutes after the 4x100. It's not even a possibility.
Rai will be on anchor but against a team like Botswana he should be on second. Rai is more than strong - he's got wheels, and when you have someone with wheels on second they can split extra fast because they have a nice first 100 meters to themselves, a flying start, and they can cut off a tenth of a second or so if you run really smart while merging.