Conventional wisdom (and Kara Goucher's) take on how Tsegay should beat Chebet is dead wrong

That move 1k out probably cost her the silver.

Chebet would’ve won no matter what Tsegay. No one can live with this monstrous sprint in the last 200m that Chebet developed out of no where last year. Meanwhile, Battocletti came out of hiding and her convicted doper dad/coach had their own thing going

With 400m to go kara also said they were all out except chebet, when batto looked like she was out of a jog lol.

Shes usually an okay announcer but I hated most of what she said during this race

I'm collecting your tears in a cup.

Yeah I actually like Kara's announcing most of the time, but she seemed off quite a bit today.

Maybe this only annoyed me, but Emily Infeld wasn't even mentioned until the race started. Yes I know she wasn't a factor, but it's an American broadcast. At least talk about her amazing comeback to get to this race.

Disagree.

Would not have mattered if Tsegay moved w/400 to go, 200 to go, or 100 to go.

Chebet and Battocletti would still have beaten her and she still would have taken the bronze.

Rewatch last year's Paris W 10,000 race. Nadia matched Beatrice step-for-step on the last lap, losing by only 0.10 secs, and blowing away everyone else including Hassan who took 3rd but almost a second behind.

From what I've read and observed, Nadia has always been very deliberate about her year-long racing schedule, always peaking for the championship season. This was only her 7th outdoor track race of the year, resulting in prs in the 1500, 3000, 5000, and now 10,000 -- the latter 3 Italian records. Builds aerobic strength during winter and spring racing xc & roads.

Despite suspicions about her given her coach/dad's overturned drug issue a few decades back, Battocletti should be an inspiration to all non-African-born/non-altitude-born distance women: they too can be competitive with the Kenyans & Ethiopians, both in aerobic as well as pure foot speed development.

And, she's been doing all this while studying engineering-architecture at the University of Trento. While being a practicing Muslim, observing Ramadan.

What an honor seeing her race.

Many have considered the most compelling race of the entire meet to be the women's 5000 on the 20th, featuring Kipyegon vs Chebet vs Tsegay. It will be even better than that.

olympics.com

Italy's Olympic medallist Nadia Battocletti at World Athletics Championships 2025: From Tokyo to Tokyo, back to where it all began

The Italian middle-distance star speaks exclusively to Olympics.com, looking ahead to the World Athletics Championships with Los Angeles 2028 in her sights.

Open link

There is no way Tsegay can beat Chebet.
Maybe at the 1500m but not at 5 or 10K.
Neither can Kipyegon. I don’t think Kipyegon will be able to shift gears like both Chebet & Battocletti did in the 10K.
Especially after the 1500m/5K rounds.
The most interesting strategy for me going into the 5K is what Ngetich will do. If I were her I would set out 1K in & just ratchet the pace down to burn as many as possible off. she did this masterfully in GST earlier this year.
if she does this the field will pop, then Tsegay will pop. Kipyegon might even pop.
Only Chebet & Battocletti will be able to go with her & she’ll get a medal.
Your 1-2 in the 5K are Chebet & Battocletti, in that order.
3rd is up for grabs.

I think the Italians should set up a 10,000m WR attempt for Battocletti next year.
I don’t think she can beat Chebet in a championship style race. But she might be able to steal her WR if she could find a very high quality pacer.

What can say Kara when she see herself outclassed by achievements by a young Italian runner:

Current World Rankings
#2 Woman's 10000m,
#3 Woman's 5000m
#3 cross country,

#21 Woman's road runnin

Chebet developed a kick out of nowhere are you serious??
18 year old Chebet closed the world U20 5000m 2018 championships in just a little under 61 seconds.
2021 20 year old Chebet won doha diamond league 3000m closing in 58 seconds outkicking everyone.
Dont be ingenous when downplaying

Yeah, I thought the same thing as they kept going on about how she needed to lead earlier. Sure Chebet has a great kick, but she's also broken 29 and 14--Tsegay's not going to break her with a straight windup. Probably won't outkick her anyway, but may as well wait until the absolute last second to see if she can win by leading for two meters.

Alternatively, and what I'd prefer at this point, is for her to try pulling some of the on/off stuff she's done in the 1500. Chebet's going to win an honest race and almost certainly a pure kick, so may as well try messing with her insane rhythm. Drop a random 63 or something, make Chebet decide whether to follow, ease off a bit, rinse and repeat a few laps later. Then try to hold on and kick, I guess. Likely suicidal, but Tsegay's probably the only woman to ever run a 3:50 1500 with the splits the way she did. She caught a lot of heat for her batsh*t pacing, but I really thought she was playing around with tactics to take on Kipyegon. Guess not, but I'd love to see her pull some shenanigans like that in the 5000 and see what happens.

I can’t wait until the talking ends and the races start

Better option: fly in to California for The TEN on March 28th.

Which would mean, she likely would have to skip World Indoors in Poland the weekend prior.

But, yes, get Nadia in a time-trial 10,000 in perfect CA-winter-like weather, sometime in her track career before she turns to the roads.

I agree, this would be much more interesting &, potentially, it might work.
but that kind of shifting is really expensive & has more potential to work in a 1500m. The 5000m is a bit of a different beast & unless she’d been training to do 3 or more of these kinds of shifts, the risk is high for blowing up.

I do think she has to do something different if she hopes to medal. Kipyegon is too good & Ngetich is not gonna let it come down to a kick in the next one. She’s too savvy for that, I think. Not sure why she thought she’d be able to kick with them without a long hard drive at least 3K out.

Wait a minute!

Did you watch the entire race?

Did you see all the moves that were made from about 4000 meters on?

76s to 73s to 67s to 81s, then a 64 final burn up.

The last 6000 was a fartlek out there.

But no one could sustain a fast pace for more than 800 meters due to the heat & humidity.

And if Tsegay holds her fire until the final lap, Chebet & Batocletti would still outkick her. Currently, they are simply that good.

Gudaf did the best she could -- which was infinitely better than her performances at the Olympics. It's to her credit she didn't crumble and let Ngetich pass her when Beatrice & Nadia blew by her near the end.

And, in next Saturday's race-of-the-meet 5000, if Gudaf stays competitive to the finish line and finishes 4th to -- in some order -- Kipyegon, Batocletti, Chebet, shell have done very well for herself again;

This is a terrible take. Kipyegon is not losing to Battocletti. she’s run two WRs this year (1500 and 3K - yes the 807 is the real WR), and is a 1405 runner. in no scenario does she lose to anyone other than Chebet unless there is a fall or something unexpected.

You keep slipping that in there. You think that means she is less likely to use PEDs?

Probably. But Tsegay has run 3;51 this year. Batocletti has a 358 pb. Make Batocletti get antsy so you can sit on her.

5K will be between Chebet and Kipyegon to the line. Battocletti gets 3rd if the pace is slow ( 14:35 or slower finish time).

For Battocletti to drop out of medals, Ngetich has to start pushing very hard with 5 laps to go. With this tactic, Battocletti will be the first, of the 3, to fall off. That gives Ngetich the only chance to medal. At the GST, Ngetich succeeded to go wire to wire because his competition in those races were not of the caliber of Chebet ,Battocletti and Kipyegon.

How can Kipyegon beat Chebet?

Chebet seems to have the ability to shift gears quicker than anyone else in the field including Kipyegon. So trying to kick with her with >250m to go will not work. However if Kipyegon kicks fearlessly between 400m and 600m or 700m, Chebet's limits will be tested. Kipyegon has done this perfectly in 1500m, running an amazing 1:57 in the last 800m! She has the ability to run sub 2 minutes in the last 800m of a 5000m race. Chebet probably a 2:02. We will have to wait and see but the tactics will definitely be different from what we saw with 10000m today.