Men's track: Patterson (400 meters) or Lyles (200 meters)?
Women's track: Faith (1500 meters)
Men's field: Mondo (pole vault)
Women's field: Allman (discus)
Other choices?
Men's track: Patterson (400 meters) or Lyles (200 meters)?
Women's track: Faith (1500 meters)
Men's field: Mondo (pole vault)
Women's field: Allman (discus)
Other choices?
Faith Kipyegon in the women’s 1500m is the most dominant athlete the sport has ever seen in a single distance event. It would be shocking if she lost.
Keely in the 800
Beatrice Cheney in the 10K
Femke in the 400h
Femke in the 400 hurdles is a great choice.
Noah has Tebogo and Bednarek, Patterson lacks experience and a lot of the top 400m men have been loading their season to peak at worlds. The most likely for men's track at this point is clearly Bakkali in the men's 3k steeple. Outside of that solid choices. The men's events are more competitive than the women's so there are fewer locks.
Hudson-Smith will snag 400m gold in 43.61.
Samukonga will nab silver in 43.84.
Patterson will bag the bronze in 44.00.
Kishane Thompson Jamaica 100m
Cordell Tinch will notch 13.01 en route to winning the sprint hurdles world title.
Megan Tapper will stun with 12.28 to win the women’s race.
I think the answer to this has two criteria - 1) athletes in track events (even Mondo who seems utterly dominant himself, explained how it only takes a few small errors and things can go south really quickly, especially in jumps) and 2) athletes on the womens side because the reality is the level and depth of talent still isn't as close to the level as on the mens side.
Just going through the mens track events, who would you confidently say is a real lock, unless they had an absolute meltdown? Fully fit and race seasoned Jakob in the 5000m maybe - but he's not. Bakkali in the SC? And yet Rooks nearly rolled him last season.
On the womens side though? With Athing Mu's career looking like it's basically over and Mary Moraa just imploding for "whatever reason", Hodgkinson is so far ahead of the field she could still have a B/B- day and find a way to win. That would be a high 1.55 performance and Werro just had a huge breakthrough to 1.55.9 2 weeks ago.
Kipyegon in the 1500? I guess Tsegay running 3.50.6 this season on a day when she realistically could have run 3.49.6 it would be absurdly likely that Kipyegon could almost walk this in. But hard to imagine that the Tsegay bank of tactics will work that effectively in a major final. Her only way to win would be to take it out in close to 2min and maybe hope that Kipyegon takes the bait and goes with her, because then it's familiar territory for her and not FK. Doubt that happens.
Chebet in the 5 and 10? Kipyegon in the 5000m makes it interesting, but it seemed interesting last season too in Paris and Chebet destroyed her in the final 80m. Kipyegon definitely stronger this season as evidenced by the 3000m. Chebet is a lock in the 10000m.
The other one would be Bol in the 400h. Again, seems like a B+ day still gets it done for Bol. If she doesn't win this she might never win a global title.
I was thinking Val Allman in the womens discus, but she lost the 2023 final to Tausaga and again, when you have an environment where each athlete has their own space to perform and it isn't impacted by anyone elses actions (the total opposite of a track race 800m and up), sometimes it happens. She isn't an absolute lock to throw over 70 and if she doesn't someone can beat her (she also lost in 2022).
If I was throwing down the World Champs parlay I would go
Hodgkinson 800, Kipyegon 1500, Chebet 10000, Bol 400h.
If I had to pick a male athlete - Cole Hocker in the 5000 (just kidding) - you can't go past Mondo's track record so it would be him. I wouldn't put him ahead of any of those women though.
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
I think the answer to this has two criteria - 1) athletes in track events (even Mondo who seems utterly dominant himself, explained how it only takes a few small errors and things can go south really quickly, especially in jumps) and 2) athletes on the womens side because the reality is the level and depth of talent still isn't as close to the level as on the mens side.
Just going through the mens track events, who would you confidently say is a real lock, unless they had an absolute meltdown? Fully fit and race seasoned Jakob in the 5000m maybe - but he's not. Bakkali in the SC? And yet Rooks nearly rolled him last season.
On the womens side though? With Athing Mu's career looking like it's basically over and Mary Moraa just imploding for "whatever reason", Hodgkinson is so far ahead of the field she could still have a B/B- day and find a way to win. That would be a high 1.55 performance and Werro just had a huge breakthrough to 1.55.9 2 weeks ago.
Kipyegon in the 1500? I guess Tsegay running 3.50.6 this season on a day when she realistically could have run 3.49.6 it would be absurdly likely that Kipyegon could almost walk this in. But hard to imagine that the Tsegay bank of tactics will work that effectively in a major final. Her only way to win would be to take it out in close to 2min and maybe hope that Kipyegon takes the bait and goes with her, because then it's familiar territory for her and not FK. Doubt that happens.
Chebet in the 5 and 10? Kipyegon in the 5000m makes it interesting, but it seemed interesting last season too in Paris and Chebet destroyed her in the final 80m. Kipyegon definitely stronger this season as evidenced by the 3000m. Chebet is a lock in the 10000m.
The other one would be Bol in the 400h. Again, seems like a B+ day still gets it done for Bol. If she doesn't win this she might never win a global title.
I was thinking Val Allman in the womens discus, but she lost the 2023 final to Tausaga and again, when you have an environment where each athlete has their own space to perform and it isn't impacted by anyone elses actions (the total opposite of a track race 800m and up), sometimes it happens. She isn't an absolute lock to throw over 70 and if she doesn't someone can beat her (she also lost in 2022).
If I was throwing down the World Champs parlay I would go
Hodgkinson 800, Kipyegon 1500, Chebet 10000, Bol 400h.
If I had to pick a male athlete - Cole Hocker in the 5000 (just kidding) - you can't go past Mondo's track record so it would be him. I wouldn't put him ahead of any of those women though.
Good analysis, but Femke Bol has already won a global title
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
I think the answer to this has two criteria - 1) athletes in track events (even Mondo who seems utterly dominant himself, explained how it only takes a few small errors and things can go south really quickly, especially in jumps) and 2) athletes on the womens side because the reality is the level and depth of talent still isn't as close to the level as on the mens side.
Just going through the mens track events, who would you confidently say is a real lock, unless they had an absolute meltdown? Fully fit and race seasoned Jakob in the 5000m maybe - but he's not. Bakkali in the SC? And yet Rooks nearly rolled him last season.
On the womens side though? With Athing Mu's career looking like it's basically over and Mary Moraa just imploding for "whatever reason", Hodgkinson is so far ahead of the field she could still have a B/B- day and find a way to win. That would be a high 1.55 performance and Werro just had a huge breakthrough to 1.55.9 2 weeks ago.
Kipyegon in the 1500? I guess Tsegay running 3.50.6 this season on a day when she realistically could have run 3.49.6 it would be absurdly likely that Kipyegon could almost walk this in. But hard to imagine that the Tsegay bank of tactics will work that effectively in a major final. Her only way to win would be to take it out in close to 2min and maybe hope that Kipyegon takes the bait and goes with her, because then it's familiar territory for her and not FK. Doubt that happens.
Chebet in the 5 and 10? Kipyegon in the 5000m makes it interesting, but it seemed interesting last season too in Paris and Chebet destroyed her in the final 80m. Kipyegon definitely stronger this season as evidenced by the 3000m. Chebet is a lock in the 10000m.
The other one would be Bol in the 400h. Again, seems like a B+ day still gets it done for Bol. If she doesn't win this she might never win a global title.
I was thinking Val Allman in the womens discus, but she lost the 2023 final to Tausaga and again, when you have an environment where each athlete has their own space to perform and it isn't impacted by anyone elses actions (the total opposite of a track race 800m and up), sometimes it happens. She isn't an absolute lock to throw over 70 and if she doesn't someone can beat her (she also lost in 2022).
If I was throwing down the World Champs parlay I would go
Hodgkinson 800, Kipyegon 1500, Chebet 10000, Bol 400h.
If I had to pick a male athlete - Cole Hocker in the 5000 (just kidding) - you can't go past Mondo's track record so it would be him. I wouldn't put him ahead of any of those women though.
Tsegay is not running 1500
Arete wrote:
Femke in the 400 hurdles is a great choice.
Agree about Femke Bol.
Bol hands down
Faith also a good pick as it Keely
Xharrisonyellow wrote:
Good analysis, but Femke Bol has already won a global title
Yes you are right, my mistake. I forgot the 2023 WC with the SML no-show.
5k and 10k wrote:
Tsegay is not running 1500
Then even easier for Kipyegon/more of a lock
Warholm is a lock for gold.
JackmanJones wrote:
Faith Kipyegon in the women’s 1500m is the most dominant athlete the sport has ever seen in a single distance event. It would be shocking if she lost.
Meant to upvote this, whoops!
Arete wrote:
Curious about the betting odds, I Googled and found this site. Interestingly ...Kishane is favored in the 100 by a decent amount.
Lyles in the 200 has the best odds of the events listed for male track races.
Patterson is favored over Hudson Smith.
Melissa is favored by more than I would have thought in the 100.
Sydney is favored (barely over Paulino).
Keely is favored by a huge margin, which I agree with, as long as she is injury free.
Allman is favored by a huge margin in the discus.
Josh Kerr is +500 to win the 1500 and Hocker +600! They are both (incredibly) behind Jakob at +300 which is ridiculous (Laros is the favourite at +100)
Belize wrote:
Warholm is a lock for gold.
I don't understand why Warholm is favored. Benjamin has defeated him the past 4 times at 400 hurdles and the past two have not been close. Warholm tightens up from hurdle 8 to finish with Benjamin in the race. He didn't break 47 either time.
Warholm has trouble maintaining 13 strides on hurdle 9 against Benjamin. He is reaching and lunging while Benjamin is cruising. Then on 10 Warholm has to add the 2 extra strides to 15 while Benjamin and Dos Santos are effortlessly maintaining 13.
I think Warholm needs his preferred outside lane so he can go out fast and try to hang on. If Warholm senses Benjamin next to him I don't like his chances.
That recent 46.28 really screwed up public perspective and the betting odds, just like the season opening 300 hurdles matchup briefly camouflaged the current realities at the 400 distance.