The Race for Legacy in the Men’s 1500 in Tokyo

Side Notez wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

Good post. My only nitpick is I don't think it's accurate to say Jakob has "perfected" the pedal to the metal strategy given what happened in Paris last year and the fact that he's never won an outdoor global championship while leading the majority of the race, like Tim did. That aside, I like your overall premise, and I agree it will be interesting to see how these three fare next week.

If Tim can medal, it will be a distinguished longevity feat of having an 8-year span of making an outdoor global championship podium in the men's 1500m. I don't know the exact number, but I don't think many guys have done that. The only ones who come to mind are El Guerrouj (9 years), Lagat (9), and Willis (8).

Tim was at his best when the fields weren’t quite as strong and Jakob was a teen. Top form Tim would not win much today. He was top form in Tokyo ‘21 and still lost after grabbing the lead from Jakob. Hasn’t won much since, and Jakob has no outdoor titles at 1500 since then either. Runners have upped their game in the 1500 - and 800.

El G and Lagat were full throttle EPO abusers. Willis should be bumped up to Gold, Kiprop was just another EPO boosted Kenyan.

Sloedirt wrote:

Even Sloer wrote:

You may be right. Jakob is an Olympic champ. He beat Tim, he beat Kerr. Kerr is a one time World champ, beating Jakob. Jakob is probably too rusty to win or even medal this year. Laros will probably win, if not, then likely Berardelli’s latest high responder in Phanuel Koech, the 23 year old “teen wonder”.

As far as legacies, both are likely done with titles at 1500 (I hope I’m wrong) although Jakob will probably (not this year) nab another win (or more) at 5k. Myers, Laros, Ruthe, and no doubt more new kids (and who knows, maybe even Lutkenhaus lol) are too young and better suited for 1500 for Kerr and Jakob to hold off.

I didn’t include Jakob’s prowess at 5K or 2Mile/3K WRs because it makes the evaluation against Kerr and Tim as a miler unfair. I think Jakob will definitely have more success at the 5K and with even modest hardware over the 10K can make a run at being one of the best to ever do it. I think Kerr could go down as a better “miler”, but Jakob is the best “runner” competing today in my opinion

Sloedirt wrote:

Since starting to seriously follow the sport 2-3 years ago, it became evident that the 1500 is the event to watch. From 2019 on, Jakob and (without nearly enough credit given), Tim Cheruiyot have evolved the event from a tactical game of cat and mouse sit-and-kicking to an all out time trial. Tim proved the concept with his win in Doha in 2019, Jakob “perfected” it in the years following. However, Josh Kerr would obviously have something to say about that. While he doesn’t employ the same strategy of “pedal to the metal”, he’s risen to the occasion in his training and been rewarded with three podium finishes of each color.

It’s obvious to me that we’re entering a new era in the event. While it’s likely that the podium from the Tokyo Olympics stays relevant for a few more years (particularly Jakob given his age and the theory many of his losses could arguably be chalked up to tactical blunders rather than inequities in fitness), the inclusion of young guns like Laros, Strand, Reynold Cheruiyot, Phanuel Koech, Hocker, Kessler, Moe Berg, and Cam Myers tells me the “old guards” time at the top might be limited to one or two more championship finals.

Whoever places the highest in Tokyo out of these three gentlemen might cement themselves as the greatest of an era before we enter the era dominated by a new cast of characters.

Tim:
2017: silver
2019 Gold
2021 Silver
(Let’s give him one extra gold for indisputably being the best in the world in 2018/2020 off years which Jakob and Kerr didn’t face in their prime)
2022 6th
2023 semis
2024- 10th

Kerr:
2019: 6th
2021: bronze
2022: 5th
2023: gold
2024: silver

Jakob:
2021: gold
2022: silver
2023: silver (bonus points for 2K WR?)
2024: Fourth

This is the race within the race! Even if none of these men win, in my mind whoever places highest will be able to rest knowing they “dominated” a half decade of the event

Sorry for the long ass post. Curious everyone else’s thoughts

Side Notez wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

Good post. My only nitpick is I don't think it's accurate to say Jakob has "perfected" the pedal to the metal strategy given what happened in Paris last year and the fact that he's never won an outdoor global championship while leading the majority of the race, like Tim did. That aside, I like your overall premise, and I agree it will be interesting to see how these three fare next week.

If Tim can medal, it will be a distinguished longevity feat of having an 8-year span of making an outdoor global championship podium in the men's 1500m. I don't know the exact number, but I don't think many guys have done that. The only ones who come to mind are El Guerrouj (9 years), Lagat (9), and Willis (8).

Tim was at his best when the fields weren’t quite as strong and Jakob was a teen. Top form Tim would not win much today. He was top form in Tokyo ‘21 and still lost after grabbing the lead from Jakob. Hasn’t won much since, and Jakob has no outdoor titles at 1500 since then either. Runners have upped their game in the 1500 - and 800.

El G and Lagat were full throttle EPO abusers. Willis should be bumped up to Gold, Kiprop was just another EPO boosted Kenyan.

Sloedirt wrote:

Since starting to seriously follow the sport 2-3 years ago, it became evident that the 1500 is the event to watch. From 2019 on, Jakob and (without nearly enough credit given), Tim Cheruiyot have evolved the event from a tactical game of cat and mouse sit-and-kicking to an all out time trial. Tim proved the concept with his win in Doha in 2019, Jakob “perfected” it in the years following. However, Josh Kerr would obviously have something to say about that. While he doesn’t employ the same strategy of “pedal to the metal”, he’s risen to the occasion in his training and been rewarded with three podium finishes of each color.

It’s obvious to me that we’re entering a new era in the event. While it’s likely that the podium from the Tokyo Olympics stays relevant for a few more years (particularly Jakob given his age and the theory many of his losses could arguably be chalked up to tactical blunders rather than inequities in fitness), the inclusion of young guns like Laros, Strand, Reynold Cheruiyot, Phanuel Koech, Hocker, Kessler, Moe Berg, and Cam Myers tells me the “old guards” time at the top might be limited to one or two more championship finals.

Whoever places the highest in Tokyo out of these three gentlemen might cement themselves as the greatest of an era before we enter the era dominated by a new cast of characters.

Tim:
2017: silver
2019 Gold
2021 Silver
(Let’s give him one extra gold for indisputably being the best in the world in 2018/2020 off years which Jakob and Kerr didn’t face in their prime)
2022 6th
2023 semis
2024- 10th

Kerr:
2019: 6th
2021: bronze
2022: 5th
2023: gold
2024: silver

Jakob:
2021: gold
2022: silver
2023: silver (bonus points for 2K WR?)
2024: Fourth

This is the race within the race! Even if none of these men win, in my mind whoever places highest will be able to rest knowing they “dominated” a half decade of the event

Sorry for the long ass post. Curious everyone else’s thoughts

snowflakes wrote:

Sloedirt wrote:

Since starting to seriously follow the sport 2-3 years ago, it became evident that the 1500 is the event to watch. From 2019 on, Jakob and (without nearly enough credit given), Tim Cheruiyot have evolved the event from a tactical game of cat and mouse sit-and-kicking to an all out time trial. Tim proved the concept with his win in Doha in 2019, Jakob “perfected” it in the years following. However, Josh Kerr would obviously have something to say about that. While he doesn’t employ the same strategy of “pedal to the metal”, he’s risen to the occasion in his training and been rewarded with three podium finishes of each color.

It’s obvious to me that we’re entering a new era in the event. While it’s likely that the podium from the Tokyo Olympics stays relevant for a few more years (particularly Jakob given his age and the theory many of his losses could arguably be chalked up to tactical blunders rather than inequities in fitness), the inclusion of young guns like Laros, Strand, Reynold Cheruiyot, Phanuel Koech, Hocker, Kessler, Moe Berg, and Cam Myers tells me the “old guards” time at the top might be limited to one or two more championship finals.

Whoever places the highest in Tokyo out of these three gentlemen might cement themselves as the greatest of an era before we enter the era dominated by a new cast of characters.

Tim:
2017: silver
2019 Gold
2021 Silver
(Let’s give him one extra gold for indisputably being the best in the world in 2018/2020 off years which Jakob and Kerr didn’t face in their prime)
2022 6th
2023 semis
2024- 10th

Kerr:
2019: 6th
2021: bronze
2022: 5th
2023: gold
2024: silver

Jakob:
2021: gold
2022: silver
2023: silver (bonus points for 2K WR?)
2024: Fourth

This is the race within the race! Even if none of these men win, in my mind whoever places highest will be able to rest knowing they “dominated” a half decade of the event

Sorry for the long ass post. Curious everyone else’s thoughts

You left out Jakob’s fourth in 2019 and I think Kerr was 5th or 6th in that race

mictlantecuhtli wrote:

This era of fast championship 1500s will come to be a seen as a exception, not the rule. Guys like Tim with bold tactics and Jakob with unconventional 1500 training got the jump on everyone:

Old workouts 2 weeks out (centro): 8x400 in 51 with 4 mins recovery, 7 min rest, 400 in 48.x

However, now people have adjusted their training and strategies to match this and the proliferation of things like double threshold has closed the fitness gap...

New workouts 2 weeks out (laros): 1k in 2:19, 500 in 67.

...and made front running impossible.

I predict this years 1500 will be won with a time above 3:30, and I think that winning times will return to the old 3:34-3:36 range with a fast last 600/800 around/after L/A.

I will concede that the above is reliant on Jakob not acting as a pacemaker for the rest of the field. I will also concede that it is unlikely that he will learn from his past mistakes and will continue to try and "win his own way".

mictlantecuhtli wrote:

This era of fast championship 1500s will come to be a seen as a exception, not the rule. Guys like Tim with bold tactics and Jakob with unconventional 1500 training got the jump on everyone:

Old workouts 2 weeks out (centro): 8x400 in 51 with 4 mins recovery, 7 min rest, 400 in 48.x

However, now people have adjusted their training and strategies to match this and the proliferation of things like double threshold has closed the fitness gap...

New workouts 2 weeks out (laros): 1k in 2:19, 500 in 67.

...and made front running impossible.

I predict this years 1500 will be won with a time above 3:30, and I think that winning times will return to the old 3:34-3:36 range with a fast last 600/800 around/after L/A.

I will concede that the above is reliant on Jakob not acting as a pacemaker for the rest of the field. I will also concede that it is unlikely that he will learn from his past mistakes and will continue to try and "win his own way".