Jakob, Crouser, Rojas, or Kennedy: who has the best chance of defending their title in their return from injury?

Here's how I'd rank them, in order of most to least likely to successfully defend their title:

1. Jakob - He was so dominant in the 5k last year in Paris, he made winning look easy. The biggest question is how his Achilles will hold up to five rounds of racing. I'd be more confident in him winning the 5k if that was his only event. Doubling carries some risk in terms of his Achilles.
   
2. Crouser - If there's anyone who knows how to manage injuries and still come up big when it matters most, it's Crouser. Remember, this is the man who won the 2023 world championship with two blood clots in his legs, then qualified for a spot on Team USA and went on to win Olympic gold in Paris coming back from a torn pec. It's not wise to bet against Crouser! Plus, his odds of winning went way up when Joe Kovacs didn't qualify. With Kovacs out of the picture, Crouser's biggest threat is Leonardo Fabbri. I like Crouser's chances of beating Fabbri because, although Fabbri is capable of monster throws, he's inconsistent. He threw a world-leading 22.82 in early August, but he only finished 6th in Zurich with a 21.47. Last year, Fabbri won the London DL in 22.52, but then only finished 5th in Paris with a 21.70. He's all over the place.
   
3. Rojas - It seems crazy to think Rojas has any chance of winning gold after being gone for so long, but it's a testament to how far ahead of her competition she was when we last saw her, coupled with the fact that no woman has reached her former level in her absence. Rojas won in Budapest with a 15.08, and she had winning jumps of 15.15 or farther four times in 2023. Since she's been gone, the farthest any woman has jumped is Thea LaFond's 15.02, which won Olympic gold. This year, LaFond has not been jumping as well. Her SB is 14.62. The world leader and clear #1 this year is Leyanis Pérez Hernández, at 14.93. In other words, Rojas doesn't need to be at her former best to win. I think LPH will probably take the gold in Tokyo, but if she's off and if Rojas can manage a 14.9x, that just might be good enough for victory.
   
4. Kennedy - It's hard to see Kennedy winning because she had the smallest margin for error of these four champions even when she was healthy. Remember, in 2023, she didn't win outright. She was co-champion with Katie Moon. Kennedy won Olympic gold outright last year, but the world leader was Molly Caudery. Kennedy's PB is 4.91, and there are at least three women capable of matching that. So, if Kennedy isn't at her best, winning the pole vault will be a tall order.

Crouser.

I went back and forth between Crouser and Jakob for #1. I think their chances are similar, and much higher than those of Rojas and Kennedy.

Crouser, then Rojas, Jakob, Kennedy