Great write up, hopefully will get some attention just based off effort.
Some things I agree with:
- The top 2 in your ranking
- Hocker will likely be in world record shape
- Major players such as Jakob or Phanuel don’t have a real chance
(I know I didn’t list much, but I’m just keeping it short, it was an interesting write up)
What I disagree with:
- Kerr is ranked too high, Laros and Hocker are easily better than where he was at last year and this years Kerr is worse than last year (he goes behind J Koech and Strand)
- Strand and J Koech should have their win percentages doubled, both have shown amazing shape and kicks at USAs, matching the likes of Hocker and Laros, though are less consistent and have some unknowns, J Koech also has a higher ceiling this season
- Hocker and Laros should have the same percentage: Though in a time trial I would take Hocker, I don’t believe the race will be THAT fast, mid to low 3:30s is my guess, in which case kickers are going to be favored, meaning anyone in the top 4 have a somewhat even shot, who shows up with the best kick and tactics depends on the day + some randomness
Great write up, hopefully will get some attention just based off effort.
Some things I agree with:
- The top 2 in your ranking
- Hocker will likely be in world record shape
- Major players such as Jakob or Phanuel don’t have a real chance
(I know I didn’t list much, but I’m just keeping it short, it was an interesting write up)
What I disagree with:
- Kerr is ranked too high, Laros and Hocker are easily better than where he was at last year and this years Kerr is worse than last year (he goes behind J Koech and Strand)
- Strand and J Koech should have their win percentages doubled, both have shown amazing shape and kicks at USAs, matching the likes of Hocker and Laros, though are less consistent and have some unknowns, J Koech also has a higher ceiling this season
- Hocker and Laros should have the same percentage: Though in a time trial I would take Hocker, I don’t believe the race will be THAT fast, mid to low 3:30s is my guess, in which case kickers are going to be favored, meaning anyone in the top 4 have a somewhat even shot, who shows up with the best kick and tactics depends on the day + some randomness
I believe the race won’t be that fast as I don’t see who’s going to take it agressively the first 2 laps based off it failing a lot with Jakob and Nuguse especially.
Jesus christ the glaze on this post is insane. Hocker is the favorite because somehow placing 6th at worlds shows he is the best of the best at peaking. Jakob has a 1 percent chance of winning though because of some cherry picked splits. 🤣🤣You cannot make this up!!
I'm fully convinced that Hocker sandbagged Pre and didn't care about the win. I just don't understand how you could possibly find 3-4 seconds at that level within the span of 1 month.
Jesus christ the glaze on this post is insane. Hocker is the favorite because somehow placing 6th at worlds shows he is the best of the best at peaking. Jakob has a 1 percent chance of winning though because of some cherry picked splits. 🤣🤣You cannot make this up!!
Yeah, it's clear this guy has a bias for him. Who wouldn't though?
I appreciate his table on PBs at Global Championships but to me that just means these guys don't care about regular season meets while others like Jakob and Cheruiyot clearly do. It's easier to PB at Worlds when you don't race or "try" (Hocker at Pre) in diamond leagues, and that is a detriment sometimes.
Jesus christ the glaze on this post is insane. Hocker is the favorite because somehow placing 6th at worlds shows he is the best of the best at peaking. Jakob has a 1 percent chance of winning though because of some cherry picked splits. 🤣🤣You cannot make this up!!
Yeah, it's clear this guy has a bias for him. Who wouldn't though?
I appreciate his table on PBs at Global Championships but to me that just means these guys don't care about regular season meets while others like Jakob and Cheruiyot clearly do. It's easier to PB at Worlds when you don't race or "try" (Hocker at Pre) in diamond leagues, and that is a detriment sometimes.
If yall don’t remember, this is the same guy who made the famous Hocker’s ridiculous kick thread before the 1500m Paris Olympic final. Great work as always Raph!
Your very title undermines the whole point you are trying to make because: wasn't Jakob in near WR shape in Paris?
Even after Monaco I had Jakob finishing 3rd last year, because he lacked the kick of Cole and Josh, and wasn't that much fitter than them. Jakob ran 3:26.7 which is sorta close to the WR, though its closer to the fitness Cole was at the in the Olympics. I expect Cole will be fitter than Jakob was last year, and unlike him have a very strong kick. And I don't expect Cole will try and front run 1500m, unless the Pace is slow, like the US 5k.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.