NXR SW early predictions thread

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3 weeks ago 08/31/2025 8:56pm EDT

Southwest has been dominating the conversation over at the NXN thread, so I figured I’d start a separate thread for SW, now that all the main players (except Niwot) have run at least one race.

Rather than give my own thoughts, I had ChatGPT5-Pro run 100 race simulations with early season speed ratings, assuming a 30-team field. I fed it Niwot’s returners top scores from last year.

Here were its top team teams, along with each team’s odds to get 1-4, plus odds of top 4 overall:

Team, 1st %. 2nd %. 3rd %,4th %,Top-4 %
Niwot: 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
AF: 0.0 50.0 23.0 14.0 87.0
Herriman: 0.0 32.0 29.0 17.0 78.0
Riverton: 0.0 10.0 27.0 19.0 56.0
Maple M: 0.0 2.0 9.0 17.0 28.0
Davis: 0.0 4.0 6.0 10.0 20.0
Coronado: 0.0 2.0 5.0 11.0 18.0
Lehi: 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0
Boulder: 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 4.0
M. View: 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0

Pretty confident about Niwot! Sounds about right to me, with the caveat that there are still three months to go! But quite a few teams have a chance to make it. Who ya got?

I didn’t do the same exercise for the girls, but unless someone else wants to lead the charge, maybe I will later in the season. I see no reason why we can’t combine into one thread.

3 weeks ago 08/31/2025 10:50pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

The crazy thing is that Riverton, Davis, and Maple Mountain graduated 4 or 5 guys from the state meet, and they still found a way to really improve from last year

3 weeks ago 08/31/2025 10:51pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

Very good idea with chat running those percentages. Never thought of that but probably will be using it in the future. Thank you for the post.

3 weeks ago 09/01/2025 12:12am EDT

re: Running UberNerd

This might be one of the most individual stacked races in nxr history

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 12:10pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

Mountain Vista girls win the Cherry Creek Steve Lohman invite.

Cherry Creek wins it on the boys side.
Coronado struggled. They were missing Horton. and Stanczak was not where he usually scores

runsignup.com

Cherry Creek Steve Lohmann Invitational

The Cherry Creek Steve Lohmann Invitational is on Saturday September 6, 2025. It includes the following events: Girls Varsity, Boys Varsity, Boys Open, Holder Event, Girls Frosh/Soph, Boys Frosh/Soph, and Girls Open.

Link:runsignup.com/Race/Results/190531/Team...

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 12:12pm EDT

re: CO battle

CO battle wrote:
Mountain Vista girls win the Cherry Creek Steve Lohman invite.
Cherry Creek wins it on the boys side.
Coronado struggled. They were missing Horton. and Stanczak was not where he usually scores
Link:runsignup.com/Race/Results/190531/Team...

Rock Canyon* wins on the boys side

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 12:17pm EDT

re: CO battle

Any word out of Centaurus?

its 2025 you would think timing companies would be better at timely results.

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 12:17pm EDT

re: dwearsh

Davis looks impressive this year and as best as I can tell there are no series seniors in their top 10. Next year could be a good one for them. Of course it's Utah so everything is relative.

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 12:33pm EDT

re: CO battle

CO battle wrote:
Mountain Vista girls win the Cherry Creek Steve Lohman invite.
Cherry Creek wins it on the boys side.
Coronado struggled. They were missing Horton. and Stanczak was not where he usually scores
Link:runsignup.com/Race/Results/190531/Team...

Coronado has very little depth. They’ve got their work cut out for them for sure and right now I think these Utah teams are looking very good.

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 2:32pm EDT

re: Nolive results

Nolive results wrote:
Any word out of Centaurus?
its 2025 you would think timing companies would be better at timely results.

Ritz gets beat by prok. Team looked ok. The course was a nice XC course. Not too difficult. Not incredible times though. High 18min for 5k. Heritage's too girl looks to be the one to beat this year. Many teams are working hard for the top spots.

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 3:52pm EDT

re: Nolive results

Nolive results wrote:
Any word out of Centaurus?
its 2025 you would think timing companies would be better at timely results.

It’s on Milesplit now

co.milesplit.com

Centaurus Bernie Gay XC Invitational 2025 - Results (Raw)

MileSplits official Results raw results for the 2025 Centaurus Bernie Gay XC Invitational, hosted by Centaurus High School in Lafayette CO.

Link:co.milesplit.com/meets/692286-centauru...

2 weeks ago 09/06/2025 8:10pm EDT

re: dwearsh

Niwot’s boys were less impressive than one might have expected. For example, their #3 got beaten by the guy who got 31st at Cheyenne Mountain a couple of weeks back. Last year, they went 1-9 in their first meet, against mostly the same teams here. I’m sure they will be fine, but that’s not a 100% chance to win NXR SW performance — more like a 90% chance to win NXR SW type of performance (assuming that both Keaton and Culpepper are healthy and were just held out). But Ritzenhein being ahead of schedule is a scary development for every other team in Colorado. Lucas Timm looks impressive, too (likely a relation to Jacob Timm from Boulder). In case that school didn’t have enough legacy talent.

Early season, you kind of never know if a team or a runner is just tempo’ing a meet. But with teams like Coronado, days like today show that with most of those 4-10 type NXR SW teams, you’re one stomach bug or bad night’s sleep away from being a non-factor. That’s not a knock on anyone, just the reality of XC with kids that go to crowded schools, travel to meets on full buses, etc.

This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.

2 weeks ago 09/07/2025 8:33pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

Looking ahead to next year (and beyond), it certainly seems like most of the powerhouse schools already seem to have their future set up for them. American Fork projects to be perhaps the strongest team in the country going in to 2026. Niwot has Sullivan, young Ritz, Timm, Sherrard, and Barrios returning in 2026, and so could compete for that title, too. Herriman has seven guys returning who already have speed ratings of 158 or better this year. Riverton will return five of their top seven plus a great JV squad (and a history of young guys making leaps year over year). Davis is a likely top ten NXR SW squad that will return their entire top seven. Mountain Vista’s boys are young and quite strong, too.

If any new blood wants to come in and make a dent on the established powers, they’re really going to have to put in the work.

2 weeks ago 09/07/2025 8:53pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

2 weeks ago 09/07/2025 10:49pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

What happened to Caleb Brown from Herriman?

he hasn’t raced since time trials

2 weeks ago 09/08/2025 11:55am EDT

re: Running UberNerd

Running UberNerd wrote:
Niwot’s boys were less impressive than one might have expected. For example, their #3 got beaten by the guy who got 31st at Cheyenne Mountain a couple of weeks back. Last year, they went 1-9 in their first meet, against mostly the same teams here. I’m sure they will be fine, but that’s not a 100% chance to win NXR SW performance — more like a 90% chance to win NXR SW type of performance (assuming that both Keaton and Culpepper are healthy and were just held out). But Ritzenhein being ahead of schedule is a scary development for every other team in Colorado. Lucas Timm looks impressive, too (likely a relation to Jacob Timm from Boulder). In case that school didn’t have enough legacy talent.
Early season, you kind of never know if a team or a runner is just tempo’ing a meet. But with teams like Coronado, days like today show that with most of those 4-10 type NXR SW teams, you’re one stomach bug or bad night’s sleep away from being a non-factor. That’s not a knock on anyone, just the reality of XC with kids that go to crowded schools, travel to meets on full buses, etc.

I was curious about Lucas Timm because it’s the first I’ve heard of him so I looked around and there’s info about his dad Jacob Timm, from what I could gather off this podcast
Lucas’s dad started running his senior year of high school and was able to go to Colorado on a scholarship one year before rwtb then transferred to Washington with Metcalf, but he never really did much and was always injured, after college he ended up in the USA Olympic development program for triathlon. Lucas’s mom was a soccer star at Washington on the same team as Hope Solo so the genetics look pretty strong, and now you got Lucas showing up at Niwot and already almost cracking into the 4th spot (impressive even with Rocco and Keaton not running) so maybe both freshmen grab varsity spots, wouldn’t be surprising at all, either way Niwot’s got 5 strong returners and probably some other guys who can step up if anyone from that top 5 gets sick or injured. It’s just odd and kind of out of nowhere that a freshman nobody was talking about is suddenly running well on varsity for Niwot. It’s early though so who knows which way it will go.

YouTube.com

A Full Conversation With The First Tinman Masters Runner || Tin Talk S1 E10

Tinman Elite

Video:youtu.be/vzuh2nT1F3U?si=Ix0O-FObWXpDF0...

2 weeks ago 09/08/2025 12:13pm EDT

re: awjefferson

awjefferson wrote:
Running UberNerd wrote:
Niwot’s boys were less impressive than one might have expected. For example, their #3 got beaten by the guy who got 31st at Cheyenne Mountain a couple of weeks back. Last year, they went 1-9 in their first meet, against mostly the same teams here. I’m sure they will be fine, but that’s not a 100% chance to win NXR SW performance — more like a 90% chance to win NXR SW type of performance (assuming that both Keaton and Culpepper are healthy and were just held out). But Ritzenhein being ahead of schedule is a scary development for every other team in Colorado. Lucas Timm looks impressive, too (likely a relation to Jacob Timm from Boulder). In case that school didn’t have enough legacy talent.
Early season, you kind of never know if a team or a runner is just tempo’ing a meet. But with teams like Coronado, days like today show that with most of those 4-10 type NXR SW teams, you’re one stomach bug or bad night’s sleep away from being a non-factor. That’s not a knock on anyone, just the reality of XC with kids that go to crowded schools, travel to meets on full buses, etc.
I was curious about Lucas Timm because it’s the first I’ve heard of him so I looked around and there’s info about his dad Jacob Timm, from what I could gather off this podcast
Lucas’s dad started running his senior year of high school and was able to go to Colorado on a scholarship one year before rwtb then transferred to Washington with Metcalf, but he never really did much and was always injured, after college he ended up in the USA Olympic development program for triathlon. Lucas’s mom was a soccer star at Washington on the same team as Hope Solo so the genetics look pretty strong, and now you got Lucas showing up at Niwot and already almost cracking into the 4th spot (impressive even with Rocco and Keaton not running) so maybe both freshmen grab varsity spots, wouldn’t be surprising at all, either way Niwot’s got 5 strong returners and probably some other guys who can step up if anyone from that top 5 gets sick or injured. It’s just odd and kind of out of nowhere that a freshman nobody was talking about is suddenly running well on varsity for Niwot. It’s early though so who knows which way it will go.
Video:youtu.be/vzuh2nT1F3U?si=Ix0O-FObWXpDF0...

Niwot is still very deep outside of there top 5. So much for the earlier opinions that Niwot would only be 5-deep this year after graduating every single person from the B team that took second at RunningLane

1 week ago 09/10/2025 11:13pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

Maple Mountain Boys' latest SR at Sanpete Classic

Top 5:

15:40 (181), 16:05 (172), 16:19 (167), 16:41 (160), 16:46 (159)

1 week ago 09/10/2025 11:15pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

AF boys are looking great, like usual. Their ability to reload is just ridiculous. No other team in the country is like this.

1 week ago 09/10/2025 11:23pm EDT

re: Running UberNerd

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