She’s 66th on the road to Tokyo list and they take 27. I’m not sure how many points she would get for finishing top 3 at US Trials, but it seems like a high mountain to climb
She’s 66th on the road to Tokyo list and they take 27. I’m not sure how many points she would get for finishing top 3 at US Trials, but it seems like a high mountain to climb
The advantage Emily has is that, since there are three Americans above her in the world rankings, she doesn't even need to be above any of the people that are in the quota, she only needs a world ranking above the person that's just outside of the quota (which is currently the Japanese champion in the 10,000m this year, Rino Goshima).
This means she only needs to boost her ranking to 1213. She can't have a 1212 World Ranking score, otherwise she won't make the quota, because her best mark is worse than Goshima's best mark if her average ends up being 1212, due to Goshima running 30:53 at the Japanese championships to win it. This means her best mark is 1259 to Infeld's 1223 (from getting 6th in The TEN this year in 30:59). Both of these meets are Silver level meets, and Goshima both ran faster and had a higher placement, so both placement and performance marks are higher. However, since Goshima ran her national championships already, she can't boost her score like Infeld can and, even if she did, her worse mark is better than Infeld's worse mark, so it would be harder for her to displace her lower mark to improve her World Rankings score and a jump in the worse score wouldn't change the average as much as well, since the floor is higher.
Since the World Ranking score is only determined by 2 races in the 10,000, due to comparatively limited racing opportunities, 1 bad mark can drag your score down significantly compared to, say, the 1500m (World Ranking is determined by athletes' top 5 marks there instead). Emily Infeld's worst mark is a 1134 score from running 31:56 at the Mastercard New York Mini 10K. To get an average of 1213, she would need a 2nd mark worth 1203 points. If she wins, she only needs a performance score of 1143 (+60 points for placement score), which is a performance of between 31:56.12-31:55 (a time similar to what she ran at the New York Mini). If she gets 2nd (+50 placement points), she needs to run 31:44.84-31:43.73. If she gets 3rd (+45 placement points), she needs to run 31:39.22-31:38.11.
Obviously, this isn't taking into account other national championships that are taking place this coming month, which might change the outside-looking-in bubble ranking, so she might have to run even faster than these marks at USA's to make it if one of those championships happen to be fast. A lot of 10,000m championships around the world happen earlier than their national championships though, so not many can use that to improve their rankings.
The only athlete I could realistically see overtake 1213, due to national final performance, other than her is Wuga He from China. Although, since she is the top-ranked Chinese athlete, she would actually have to overtake the lowest ranked person in the three-person-per-country world rankings quota list in order to be eligible for the quota spot, which is currently Joy Cheptoyek from Uganda. She is at 1218 points (after running 30:22 to win the Tokyo : Speed : Race and 30:41 at the Kenyan trials as an invited athlete). Wuga He has a 2-point worse top mark, so she would have to increase her average to 1219 points as a result. Therefore, she'd basically need to win her national championship running 31:44.84. She actually has ran faster than that this year already, running 31:36 at the Asian Championships but I assume the field is much weaker, and she'd probably have to do a lot of the work on her own (although, she is a decent half-marathoner as well, so maybe she could grind it out). Just noticed that she's 42nd in the world in the 10,000 and 69th in the world in the half-marathon this year, nice ;).
She’s 66th on the road to Tokyo list and they take 27. I’m not sure how many points she would get for finishing top 3 at US Trials, but it seems like a high mountain to climb
The advantage Emily has is that, since there are three Americans above her in the world rankings, she doesn't even need to be above any of the people that are in the quota, she only needs a world ranking above the person that's just outside of the quota (which is currently the Japanese champion in the 10,000m this year, Rino Goshima).
This means she only needs to boost her ranking to 1213. She can't have a 1212 World Ranking score, otherwise she won't make the quota, because her best mark is worse than Goshima's best mark if her average ends up being 1212, due to Goshima running 30:53 at the Japanese championships to win it. This means her best mark is 1259 to Infeld's 1223 (from getting 6th in The TEN this year in 30:59). Both of these meets are Silver level meets, and Goshima both ran faster and had a higher placement, so both placement and performance marks are higher. However, since Goshima ran her national championships already, she can't boost her score like Infeld can and, even if she did, her worse mark is better than Infeld's worse mark, so it would be harder for her to displace her lower mark to improve her World Rankings score and a jump in the worse score wouldn't change the average as much as well, since the floor is higher.
Since the World Ranking score is only determined by 2 races in the 10,000, due to comparatively limited racing opportunities, 1 bad mark can drag your score down significantly compared to, say, the 1500m (World Ranking is determined by athletes' top 5 marks there instead). Emily Infeld's worst mark is a 1134 score from running 31:56 at the Mastercard New York Mini 10K. To get an average of 1213, she would need a 2nd mark worth 1203 points. If she wins, she only needs a performance score of 1143 (+60 points for placement score), which is a performance of between 31:56.12-31:55 (a time similar to what she ran at the New York Mini). If she gets 2nd (+50 placement points), she needs to run 31:44.84-31:43.73. If she gets 3rd (+45 placement points), she needs to run 31:39.22-31:38.11.
Obviously, this isn't taking into account other national championships that are taking place this coming month, which might change the outside-looking-in bubble ranking, so she might have to run even faster than these marks at USA's to make it if one of those championships happen to be fast. A lot of 10,000m championships around the world happen earlier than their national championships though, so not many can use that to improve their rankings.
The only athlete I could realistically see overtake 1213, due to national final performance, other than her is Wuga He from China. Although, since she is the top-ranked Chinese athlete, she would actually have to overtake the lowest ranked person in the three-person-per-country world rankings quota list in order to be eligible for the quota spot, which is currently Joy Cheptoyek from Uganda. She is at 1218 points (after running 30:22 to win the Tokyo : Speed : Race and 30:41 at the Kenyan trials as an invited athlete). Wuga He has a 2-point worse top mark, so she would have to increase her average to 1219 points as a result. Therefore, she'd basically need to win her national championship running 31:44.84. She actually has ran faster than that this year already, running 31:36 at the Asian Championships but I assume the field is much weaker, and she'd probably have to do a lot of the work on her own (although, she is a decent half-marathoner as well, so maybe she could grind it out). Just noticed that she's 42nd in the world in the 10,000 and 69th in the world in the half-marathon this year, nice ;).
Roe is going to win this. She's had a phenomenal year with great momentum and is hungry. Especially if Kelati aims to double back in the 5, she may not care about nipping Roe down the final stretch. Schweizer for third, if healthy, because she's a grinder. Cranny did have that solid 10k at The TEN back in March, but I don't see anybody else really contending.
Karissa Schweitzer past races have been abysmal for her standards. Not feeling too bullish about her or cranny. Neither of them seem to be their normal selves. I assume Taylor Roe will try to prevent it from being a kickers race. Expect to see Keira D’Amato in the mix as well