Are you ready for Thursday's 5000m WR attempt in Oslo - Any chance Nico Young breaks it?

Nico has a shot at sub 12:50. He needs to stay at the back though and not go with the pace at the front.

Nico ran 12:51.56 indoors this year. In 2022, Grant ran 12:53.73 indoors and 12:46.96 outdoors.

We all know that it doesn't precisely work like that, this doesn't prove we can just subtract 7 seconds to get an outdoor time. And the 12:46 was in September, not June, and Nico is presumably trying to peak in September too... but still, I think the right question is how far into the 12:40s can he get.

More people are training better. And doing appropriate training for their ability level.

Training used to be based on coaches intuition but now we have training and results documented for 20+ years on The Internet. Better coaches are using this information and more athletes are getting to the next level.

Agreed. Speculating on the WR is silly at this point.

Not a chance. Doing so would make him the favorite for Gold this summer.

I do think 12:45 might be possible and that would be an outstanding achievement for him.

No chance, but I do think he could surprise a lot of people tomorrow. 10 days off from a dog attack and he still ran 12:51 (granted, at BU) indoors. The way Mike Smith is talking about his training is extremely positive. Also, remember he closed extremely hard at BU. I have a feeling he'll hang back for the first 4k, then start catching the WR-attempt runners as they start falling off. 3rd or 4th and 12:44-46 is definitely possible, and if he sees that he's in AR range, he might push a little harder.

Let's start with the American Record first

No way Nico breaks the WR, but 12:46 is in reach I think. In the article, Smith says Nico missed 10 days due to a dog attack before his 12:51, and that this buildup has gone basically perfect. He also ran solo and closed the last k well for his 12:51. I think 12:39 is on the upper end of what’s possible, but that would shock me. I’d assume something was wrong if he broke the WR lol

A good article from Rojo. The coaches' comments were interesting. In both cases, they're essentially saying "pace the first 4K, race the last K." I agree with Rojo that a WR is more likely to come by running 12:40 pace and closing in 59/55. Too bad Inge is out.

Yeah, but racing the last 1K means maintaining pace.

Agreed, thanks to Rojo for getting both coaches' takes. Though why no Ben Thomas (he does seem media-averse)?

The fact that Nico did his 12:51 with 10 days off is mighty impressive. I think this will ultimately be a 12:41 race, and I really could see Nico gapped by Kejelcha, but chasing down guys like Hagos (if he's less fit), Kipkorir, and Krop to run 12:45-6.

WR talk is crazy. But I think he can run faster than Jakob’s 12:48 PR. Anything faster than Jakob’s best time would be wonderful.